Rounding Third: Friday Night Reactions

Instead of tweeting out my reactions to tonight's game, I decided to turn it into an article form tonight. My observations will thus necessarily be shorter, but hopefully you find this of some value.

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One thing I'll be looking for is whether offenses start to recover. It struck me that when looking to build a DFS lineup tonight, there wasn't one game with an over/under higher than 8.5 runs. I know I harp on this topic a lot - but I don't apologize for that. I hate so much of the anti-marketing of the current game, because there are so many amazing players right now, and there are so many negative forces dragging the game, starting with the Commissioner's office. But the hitting environment is so difficult right now. The league-wide batting average beginning Friday night is .231, down from .244. Team homers per game is 0.90, down from 1.22, and the average runs per game per team is all the way down to 3.99, down from 4.53.

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The Cardinals were attacking Hunter Greene on the first pitch initially in the first inning, with back-to-back hits to start. After throwing 39 pitches (of 80 total) at 100+ mph, his velocity was down in the first inning.

We'll see if that continues later in the game. It's possible that this is a red flag, or merely just a function of pitching in colder weather in Cincinnati after pitching his previous game in the more temperate climate of Los Angeles.

Speaking of Reds-Cardinals, this game is only available on AppleTV. At least you don't have to pay for a subscription to watch the game, but one annoyance already with the product is that the audio is out of sync with the video in the game - already by a solid second if not two seconds. Hopefully it'll get corrected, but it's off-putting to here the crack of the bat before the batter has even begun his swing.

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I love seeing how Steven Kwan pulled in his hands to hit the game-starting double down the right field line, narrowly missing his first major league homer. It's really cool to see a player with such excellent bat control.

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Ranger Suarez worked out of a bases loaded, no-outs jam in the first inning, getting strikeouts of Hunter Renfroe and Keston Hiura before Alec Bohm made a nice play over at third base on a short-hop to end the inning. This is four games in a row that they've entrusted Bohm to play in the field, which they need to do with Bryce Harper's elbow aching, and with poor defenders Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos also regulars in the lineup. Bohm has been great at the plate so far, hitting .476/.483/.714 with only one strikeout, after striking out 26.6 percent of the time last season. Meanwhile, rookie Bryson Stott is hitting .133 and has only started one of the last five games.

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From the early slate, I'm watching two struggling starting pitchers carefully in Freddy Peralta and Trevor Rogers. Both have tough road starts against the Phillies and Braves respectively. Both are getting BABIP'd to death, especially Peralta, who is allowing a .474 average against on balls in play. They are both allowing harder contact, with each allowing an exit velocity over a full mph over last season, albeit each with one barrel allowed so far.

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I wonder how many people drafted Miguel Cabrera in their DFS contests for sentimental reasons and left him in their lineups by accident despite the rainout. For what it's worth, I got an e-mail from one game provider at 7:29 ET, i.e. 19 minutes after it was scheduled to begin. Now, one should avoid playing DFS lineups with sentimental intent, and should be regularly checking the weather before the games start anyhow. But how awful would it be to take a zero there because of the late notice?

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Michael Govier mentioned this during the Thursday podcast, but I have so much Wander Franco FOMO in my season-long leagues - the only places I have him are in dynasty formats. He hit his second homer of the season in his first at-bat, and later tonight he made this sweet play:

Now, "sweet plays" aren't a category unless you're in a Scoresheet or Strat-o-matic league, but man, what an awesome player. I thought that he was going too high in drafts because I didn't think he'd hit for enough power or steal enough bases to justify the 3rd-to-4th round price that it usually cost. However, his draft price in the NFBC Main Event fell to 71st overall, with a Max pick of 108. He only has struck out four times all season, hitting .400 in a season when most players are struggling to hit for average. Oh yeah, he hit a second homer later in the game.

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Ronald Acuña stole a base (again) and scored from second on an infield single tonight. Yeah, my take that he was going too soon in drafts because he might not run doesn't look like it's going to age well.

Kyle Wright turned in another superb outing Friday night for the Braves. He struck out 11 while walking only one over six scoreless innings. Prior to 2022, Wright had a pedestrian swinging strike % around 10 percent, and walked a whopping 14 percent of the batters he faced. He's turned that on its head this season, with a 14.7 SwStr% heading into this start, and now just two walks over 17 innings. This feels like a sustainable good start to the season, after Wright shuttled up and down from Gwinnett to Atlanta and back over the last four seasons.

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Both Rogers and Peralta passed the test tonight, by the way, albeit perhaps not with flying colors. Rogers allowed just one unearned run over five innings, striking out four while walking two, though he needed 95 pitches to get through those five innings. Peralta also went five innings, allowing a first-inning run on a rocket double by Bryce Harper before escaping a jam that inning. Afterwards he didn't allow another run, striking out six while walking two. I'm hesitant to send out the "all clear," but it appears both pitchers made significant gains from what was ailing them.

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We had concerns about the roles for Giovany Gallegos and Jordan Romano early in draft season - especially with the Cardinals outright saying that they'd not necessarily use Gallegos as a closer. But both seem fairly ensconced in their roles right now, with a lack of a clear alternative in each bullpen. Maybe that changes near the trade deadline, but it doesn't appear to be a threat in the near future.

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For those reading the closer tea leaves in Boston, Hansel Robles pitched the eighth against the Rays, with Jake Diekman coming in for the save chance in the ninth. Unfortunately for Diekman, he put the first two batters on and three total via the walk, and ultimately had to give way to Matt Barnes to complete the save. That last out of the game was a ground ball rocket off the bat of Wander Franco, but Trevor Story made a really nice play to flag it down and throw Franco out.

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Andrew Vaughn hit his third homer of the season, and his first against a righty in Bailey Ober. It's early, but Vaughn is looking more like the "best college hitter in the draft" that he was portrayed to be in 2019. Not only is he hitting for more power, but Vaughn is hitting fewer ground balls and striking out far less frequently. Now if he can maybe, possibly hit higher than sixth or seventh in the order, we'll have ourselves a stew.

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The Astros haven't yet had a save opportunity since Ryan Presley went on the IL, but they did save Hector Neris for the ninth inning tonight. Unfortunately for Neris, he gave up a run in the ninth to the Jays. Rafael Montero threw a scoreless eighth inning. Ryne Stanek was held out prior to the ninth. There's no shame in giving up a rocket to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who hit a single with a 109 mph exit velocity. Matt Chapman hit the big blow against Neris with an RBI double, raising his line to .271/.340/.458 so far this season.

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Julio Urias's velocity was down in his first start against the Rockies, significantly so, and a little better in his second start against the Reds. So far on Friday night he topped out at 94.1 mph and was averaging 92-93 mph with his fastball. It's not all the way back from 2021's highs, but he's inching closer to getting it all back. Meanwhile, Nick Martínez has been dodging raindrops all night, walking five through the first four innings without allowing a run.

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Is Bruce Zimmermann legit? Through five innings he's shut out the Angels and still hasn't allowed an earned run through 14 innings, striking out 15 batters in the process. His three opponents (Brewers, Yankees, Angels) are hardly pushovers, too. Zimmermann has thrown his mediocre and slowing fastball (dropping from 91.5 mph last season to 90.3 mph this season) less frequently, adding more changeups and curveballs, with resulting increases in strikeouts (19.6% to 26.3%) and ground balls (40.4% to 43.5%). I remain skeptical here - if you beat me with Zimmermann, more power to you.

(Zimmermann stayed in an inning too long and gave up his first homer of the season to Anthony Rendon in the seventh, giving him his first two earned runs allowed for the season.)

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Emilio Pagan made it interesting, allowing a hit and two walks, but ultimately made it two saves in two days for the Twins. Tyler Duffey got the win when the Twins rallied for two runs in the eighth inning. Pagan probably won't be available if there's another save chance on Saturday, after needing 34 pitches tonight.

Meanwhile, Chris Stratton converted a bumpy save of his own for the Pirates against the Cubs, which was also his second save in as many days. David Bednar got his third hold of the season, striking out the side. It's possible that neither Stratton nor Bednar will be available for Saturday, having pitched both days against the Cubs. Stratton also took a comeback chopper off his pitching forearm but obviously stayed in the game.

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Through six innings, Carlos Santana is 0-for-3, dropping his line to .063/.189/.094 on the season. On Wednesday's SiriusXM show I asked James Anderson whether it might be Nick Pratto Time soon, but James demurred. First, as James ably pointed out, Pratto is struggling in his own right against Triple-A pitching, hitting .196/.268/.431 with a 35.7 K% in 13 games so far. You don't have to master Minor League Equivalents to realize that such a high strikeout rate at Triple-A doesn't portend good results in the majors. Moreover, even if Pratto were raking, the Royals aren't tearing it up so they might be encouraged to avoid starting up his service time. James is actually higher on Pratto's teammate Vinnie Pasquantino, who is off to a much better start and has a superior command of the strike zone.

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Patrick Corbin got smashed again, this time by the Giants, who scored all seven of their runs against him in the second inning. There was some spring training optimism regarding Corbin, with those touting him citing Corbin's increased velocity last season. Alas, that velocity is now down on both his four-seamer and his sinker. I think the appeal for those that backed Corbin was that he still had a high strikeout ceiling, and thus might be "... the next Robbie Ray ...." While I've learned my lesson to refrain from categorizing players as "Never Robbie Rays", I was avoiding Corbin, as I also think it's a mistake to frame a player as "... the next X."

The Nats also got caught up in some unwritten rules nonsense in the ninth inning, getting upset by Thairo Estrada attempting to play baseball steal a base and score on a base-hit, up 7-1. The obvious, knee-jerk reaction here is that the Nationals players (Alcides Escobar and Victor Robles) upset by Estrada were being crybabies, and probably were embarrassed to be losing by as much as they were. The wired reaction is that baseball, like football, should have a "tip the king" button much like chess does (as first proposed by Chris Liss on our SiriusXM show), and thus everyone can go home and not be concerned by such slights. Length of game issues could also be solved by this elegant solution! Seriously, though, if the Cats had removed Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz and Josh Bell from the game, and thus conceded the result, then maybe I could see them getting upset by Estrada. But even that is setting aside that Estrada, and Mauricio Dubón before him earlier this season, are doing their very best merely to stay in the big leagues, and any stat that they can compile helps them in their quest. Much as if Robles or Escobar could get a single, solitary hit at the plate and raise their respective averages closer to the Mendoza Line, it might improve their job security as well.

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Andres Muñoz got his turn with the Mariners closer carousel, converting his first save of the season. It wasn't totally clean - he allowed a single and a walk - but converted the save chance while protecting a three-run lead. Drew Steckenrider pitched the night before in the ninth with a tie game and got the loss, and Diego Castillo pitched the night before in the ninth while the Mariners were ahead 4-0. Julio Rodriguez had a good night, going 2-for-4 with a double and two RBI, much better than his four-K night on Thursday. 

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After a slow start, Daulton Varsho now has four homers in his last eight games, with the most recent coming with two outs in the ninth off Edwin Díaz to tie the game tonight. Varsho is still striking out too frequently (29.2% going into Friday) and thus not hitting for average, but the power makes up for that, especially from the catcher slot. Friday night marked just the second game this season that Varsho has spent any time behind the plate - for those of you in keeper leagues, you're getting the benefit of Varsho playing nearly everyday in the outfield while being eligible at catcher, but it's possible that he might not get 20 games behind the plate this year to qualify as a catcher next season.

The blown save was Diaz's first blown save in just two attempts, despite the Mets entering Friday's play with a 10-4 record. One potential save opportunity was lost to Diaz when he pitched the first game of Tuesday's doubleheader against the Giants, leaving Trevor May to get the chance in the nightcap. Don't worry about this blip, Diaz will be fine.

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The Padres tv booth - the great Don Orsillo and Mark Grant - found home plate umpire Ron Kulpa more culpable than capable on Friday night, accusing him of having an extra-wide strike zone, applied to both teams. They had a point - check out this plate appearance for Manny Machado against Phil Bickford in the bottom of the eighth inning:

Pitches 2 & 3 were both called strikes. One less-discussed issue regarding the struggles hitters face in today's game is the battle of the strike zone. It's hard to call balls and strikes accurately, even for a veteran umpire like Kulpa. These weren't even that egregious, especially strike two. But a 2-0 count in favor of Machado would have put him in a much stronger position than 1-1, and obviously 1-2 put him in quite a whole. I'm not necessarily saying implement robot umpires now, but maybe implement robot umpires soon?

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Meanwhile, it was good to see Mookie Betts get untracked, homering twice. There probably wasn't much of a buy-low window available for Betts, but if there was, it's likely closed now. The same applies to Franmil Reyes, who homered Friday night for the second game in a row. You might still be able to go get Joey Votto on the cheap - he's only 76% rostered in Yahoo leagues - and I think you should do so if you can. Who are your "... buy while there's blood in the streets ..." players?

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That's going to cover it for me tonight - I hope you enjoyed the format. Please let me know if you'd like to see this again sometime, and I'll try to set aside a night where there's full slate of games.