This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for Monday, April 15
Hopefully you set your fantasy lineups if you have any Red Sox or Guardians as they played the early game Monday. There's still 14 games to choose from for wagering purposes and I found myself buying low for the three wagers I like today. One is a prop bet and the two others are home teams rolling out struggling pitchers who I expect to rebound. Also, look inside the analysis as I don't always make an "official" pick but often suggest something in the analysis. For example, I suggested taking Jose Ramirez's anytime home run odds last week in the analysis last week but didn't make it an official pick and it hit. Anyways, let's take a look at today's plays.
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Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies Best Bets
Suffice to say Aaron Nola hasn't gotten off to a great start this season with a 4.50 ERA and a FIP of 6.75 suggesting the ERA should be worse. He's lucky to have two wins, but a lot of his stats suggest a correction or progression to the mean is coming. Provided he isn't hiding an injury, his numbers (5.63 K/9IP, 25 percent HR/FB and 4.50 BB/9IP) should all improve in what's been a very small sample. A home matchup against the Rockies is solid for strikeouts as Colorado has struck out 27.1 percent of the time against right-handed pitching. While he hasn't struck out more than four in any of his first three outings, I like that since it should have been factored and somewhat kept down tonight's line. The interesting fact about this line is it depends on your tolerance for the odds; you can find it on FanDuel at 6.5 for -150 or on DraftKings for 7.5 +120. If push comes to shove, give me the 7.5 at plus odds.
MLB Picks For Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts -150 (FanDuel), Over 7.5 DraftKings +120
The Orioles aren't some big secret anymore and they boast one of the better-hitting lineups in the league with a plethora of prospects showing their potential. The Orioles are top 10 with a .332 wOBA as a team against right-handed pitching, but their .202 ISO is second only to the Braves in all of baseball. Cole Irvin has struggled in his first two starts but looking back at the 2022 season (his last season of significant innings) he had a 3.07 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP at home in just over 105 innings. Louie Varland, who toes the rubber for the Twins, has also had a rough start to the season (9.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP in nine innings) and now has to go on the road to face a tough Baltimore lineup. Varland has also had trouble with the long ball since joining the Twins, allowing 19 home runs in 77 innings dating back to last season. Look to sprinkle a little on Baltimore's individual player anytime home run odds, maybe Jackson Holliday gets his first dinger? I'm going to ignore the moneyline here and go with the 1.5 runs at plus odds.
MLB Picks For Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles -1.5 Runs +138 (BetRivers)
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Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners Best Bets
If you looked at George Kirby and Frankie Montas' numbers right now without knowing their respective starts to the season, you'd think the stats were reversed. However, Montas is the one off to a great start this season with two wins and a 2.16 ERA. That's highly unsustainable for a pitcher who has been riddled with injuries over the last two seasons and the last time he pitched a significant number of innings was 2022, when his road ERA was 5.11 (1.35 WHIP). George Kirby has been incredibly unlucky to start the season, surrendering 13 runs in only 14.1 innings. He's allowed only one home run, has a 13:2 K:BB ratio and ridiculously high .380 BABIP. All of those numbers point to better days ahead and this should be the start tonight. Like Baltimore, I'm going ignore the moneyline and take the Mariners at -1.5 for plus odds.
MLB Picks for Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners -1.5 Runs +148 (DraftKings)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts -150 (FanDuel), Over 7.5 DraftKings +120
- Baltimore Orioles -1.5 Runs +138 (BetRivers)
- Seattle Mariners -1.5 Runs +148 (DraftKings)
