This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
Thursday brings us a shorter slate, but there still a solid number of potentially profitable PrizePicks opportunities. We highlight four of our favorites below:
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Nick Castellanos, PHI at COL: More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
The Phillies have unsurprisingly enjoyed their time at Coors over the first three games of this series with the Rockies, and Castellanos has been at the center of all the action. The veteran slugger has gone 5-for-13 with a pair of RBI and and five runs over that span, pushing his career slash line at the hitter-friendly home park to a stellar .342/.381/.579 across 18 career games.
Thursday, Castellanos faces a familiar foe in German Marquez, who he's gotten to for a .417 average with two doubles and a homer over 13 career encounters. Marquez has pitched to an 8.78 ERA and 1.83 WHIP across his first nine starts, and he has a career-low 10.9 percent strikeout rate.
Marquez has also allowed a .345 average and .415 wOBA to right-handed hitters, and while those numbers are actually better when split out for his home performances against righty bats, they're belied by a .226 BABIP and a 4.92 xFIP that's appreciably higher than his 3.66 FIP.
When Marquez exits, Castellanos will get a crack at a Rockies bullpen that's sporting an 8.38 ERA, .341 BAA and .426 wOBA against right-handed hitters at home in May.
Cedric Mullins, BAL at BOS: More Than 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Mullins' season-long batting average of .236 isn't particularly exciting, but both his .332 OBP and .473 slugging percentage underscore he's still been a consistent offensive presence. He also enters Thursday's very favorable matchup running hot, as he owns a .400 average and 1.345 OPS across his last four games, a stretch where he's laced four of his six hits for extra bases and also knocked in six runs.
He's a solid candidate to continue raking against inconsistent Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito, who's allowed a .310 average and .378 wOBA to the first 43 left-handed hitters he's faced this season. Mullins has also given Giolito fits throughout his career, going 8-for-13 (.615) with three doubles and a triple against the veteran right-hander.
Mullins owns a .273 average and .781 OPS in 41 career games at Fenway Park, a sample in which he's averaged 2.2 hits + runs + RBI per contest. Mullins is averaging 2.0 hits + runs + RBI per game this season as well, making this a very achievable prop for the versatile veteran, who is also boasting a career-high 11.6 percent walk rate that dovetails perfectly with Giolito's trademark control issues.
Matt Olson, ATL at WAS: More Than 7 Hitter Fantasy Score
Olson is the first of two Atlanta players that stand out in their matchup against the Nationals on Thursday evening. The left-handed slugger draws a very appealing target in Washington starting pitcher Trevor Williams, who's pitched to a .383 BAA, .433 wOBA, 1.9 HR/9 and 2.14 WHIP against left-handed hitters.
Olson comes in swinging a hot bat as well, as he's generated a .300 average and 1.001 OPS over the 43 plate appearances covering his last 10 games, a stretch where he's laced seven (three doubles, four homers) of 12 hits for extra bases. Olson has actually performed better batting average-wise in same-handed matchups, but he still owns a .334 wOBA against right-handed pitching and has career-high 18.6 percent barrel and 56.6 percent hard-hit rates.
Olson has just a .200 average against Williams in 13 career plate appearances, but he's only struck out twice and walked on three occasions during the sample while counting a homer as one of two hits against him. Therefore, there's likely been some bad luck on some of those outs he's made, and when Williams exits, Olson, who's scored between 14 and 22 fantasy points in his last four contests alone, will face a Nats bullpen that's pitched to a 5.06 ERA against left-handed batters at home in May.
AJ Smith-Shawver, ATL at WAS: More Than 3.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
Smith-Shawver had already offered plenty of glimpses at his potential in his previous two previous MLB cameos before this season, but he's now showing what he's capable of with a long-term role. The right-hander has an ordinary 3-2 record, but it's accompanied by a 2.33 ERA, 9.3 K/9 and 0.7 HR/9 across his first seven starts.
Smith-Shawver has an impressive 12.5 percent swinging strike rate as well, and he's collected at least 5 Ks in all but his first start of the season, when he still rung up four. Thursday, he faces a Nationals squad that has a palatable 21.9 percent strikeout rate against righties in May, but whose current hitters Smith-Shawver has held to a collective .143 average and .404 OPS in 31 career encounters, a sample in which he's also rung up seven strikeouts.
Smith-Shawver has gone at least five innings in each of his last four starts, and if he even hits the low end of that range Thursday, he should have a very good chance of recording at least four strikeouts.
