This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets and Expert Picks for
Friday, May 3
YTD 41-51-1 (-8.00 units)
Prior article 3-2 (+1.55 units)
PRIOR SLATE NOTES
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto OVER 16.5 outs
- Yamamoto pitched 6.0 innings of shutout baseball and looked great again. I would look to play on him up to 18 recorded outs.
- Yamamoto OVER 5.5 strikeouts
- Yamamoto just missed this with 5.0 strikeouts.
- Cubs ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -124)
- Cubs with a 1-0 win and they continue to be a team I like to look at with their solid pitching and hitting.
- Giants UNDER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +110)
- The Red Sox are a great team to take opponents UNDER their team totals, especially against weaker lineups.
- 3-LEG PARLAY Yamamoto OVER 5.5 strikeouts + Cubs ML + Giants UNDER for 0.25 unit (DraftKings +674)
- Frustrating as this was 0.5 strikeouts away from a clean sweep.
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5 inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals medium plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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San Francisco Giants 
at Philadelphia Phillies 
The pitching matchup of the night pits Jordan Hicks against Aaron Nola. The Phillies opened -140 and it has already moved to -170. The total has also dropped from 8.0 to 7.5 and I could see this reaching 7.0. With that being said, the sharps jumped on the Phillies and Nola in this spot and I can see why.
The Giants offense just put up a total of five runs in three games against the Red Sox, who have the best pitching staff in baseball. Now they get Aaron Nola at home, and he has hit all of his key props this season – three in a row OVER strikeouts, four in a row OVER recorded outs, 4-of-5 UNDER hits allowed, and three in a row UNDER walks allowed.
With this game heading for a lower scoring game, I did not feel like laying -1.5 runs, paying -170 or even laying -0.5 F5 at short juice. But Nola has plus odds on his recorded outs because it crosses over the key number of 18. Normally, I avoid 18.5 OVERS, but Nola has posted 24, 24, and 22 in his last 3 starts.
MLB Picks for Giants at Phillies
- Aaron Nola OVER 18.5 recorded outs for 1 unit (BetRivers +133)
Seattle Mariners 
at Houston Astros 
Both teams are in the top three for UNDERS, and the key number of 8.5 here is huge so jump on it and shop around. A lot of the value goes away at 8.0.
Of all Mariners games, 76 percent have gone UNDER and it is not just a home-field thing. The Astros have gone UNDER 65 percent. Both pitchers have done well this year and George Kirby got off to a rough start, but he is 2-0 in his last three starts with a 1.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 12.5 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9. Ronel Blanco is probably heading for some regression, but his stat line is 32.2 innings, 1.65 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP.
MLB Picks for Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
- George Kirby OVER 17.5 recorded outs for 0.75 unit (BetRivers -136)
- Mariners/Astros UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -120)
Miami Marlins 
at Oakland Athletics 
The A's are 14-10 over their last 24 games and have played solid ball despite scoring just over three runs per game in that stretch. It is their pitching that has carried them with a 3.37 ERA, 1.17 WHIP. Their home ERA drops all the way down to 2.41. But it is the bullpen that ranks second in baseball since April 6 with a 2.14 ERA.
The Marlins are the third-worst team in baseball and were heading for the worst before sweeping the Rockies at home. That is how bad Colorado is on the road.
MLB Picks for Marlins at Athletics
- A's ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -134)
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Boston Red Sox 
at Minnesota Twins 
The Twins are on a 10-game winning streak, but seven of those wins were against the White Sox.
The Twins have the sixth-highest strikeout percent against right-handed pitchers at 24.9 percent. Houck has struck out right about one per inning and I like him to go six innings today.
The Houck over-5.5-strikeout prop is chalk admittedly and the line has moved from -110 this morning to -170 at the time I submitted the article.
The thing about Houck's strikeout totals is that he has faced the Guardians and Angels in back-to-back starts, which has brought his average down. When he faced Cleveland, the strikeouts were nine and then four; versus the Angels it was seven and then two. So we are getting tremendous value on Houck plus the Twins "streak".
MLB Picks for Red Sox at Twins
- Tanner Houck OVER 17.5 recorded out for 0.75 unit (DraftKings -105)
- Houck OVER 6.0 strikeouts for 1 unit (BetRivers -129)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Aaron Nola OVER 18.5 recorded outs for 1 unit (BetRivers +133)
- George Kirby OVER 17.5 recorded outs for 0.75 unit (BetRivers -136)
- Mariners/Astros UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -120)
- Tanner Houck OVER 17.5 recorded outs for 0.75 unit (DraftKings -105)
- Houck OVER 6.0 strikeouts for 1 unit (BetRivers -129)
- Oakland A's ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -134)
- 4-LEG PARLAY – Cardinals/Phillies/Red Sox/Mariners ML for 0.20 unit (DraftKings +726)
- 3-LEG PARLAY – Nola/Houck/Kirby OVER recorded outs for 0.20 unit (DraftKings +615)
- 3 LEG PARLAY – Alt Strikeouts 8+ Houck/Sonny Gray/Tanner Bibee for 0.10 unit (FanDuel +4346)
