Oak's Corner: Finding Help Down the Stretch

The Week That Was

Coming off back to back years with 40 stolen bases (one of which was a year he only played 98 games), Trea Turner was a locked in first-round pick with an ADP of 6.3 in the NFBC Main Event, which made him the fourth highest picked player. With stolen bases down across the board, the appeal of a large stolen base anchor who isn't a power zero nor a batting average drain is quite significant. Turner again found his way to the Injured List this year, although this time it was his fault, as he fractured his finger on a bunt attempt, and it cost him six weeks. He had a bit of a slow start upon his return with only one homer in his first 30 games back, but ramped it up big time once he knocked the rust off.

Since June 7, Turner is hitting .309 with 10 homers in 64 games and 18 stolen bases. On the season as a whole, Turner is hitting .295 with 13 homers and 26 steals to go with 66 runs in only 87 games, truly a monster pace for fantasy leagues. He's striking out a touch more at 20.9 percent, but is posting a career high in both hard hit rate at 36.7 percent and average exit velocity at 90 mph. With the number of large breakouts this year who promise to be first rounders along with some high-end aces some and sexy young stars like Fernando Tatis Jr., it's very possible that Turner slips from a top half of the first round this year to the end of the first round next year. Turner will still be 26 to start next season, so I wouldn't be concerned about him slowing down in the running game quite yet, and the power should continue to build a little bit year by year. When you combine that with an always solid batting average and a ton of runs, I think 2020 is going to be peak Trea Turner, just not at the peak price.

This Yu Darvish season has been a wacky and wild tale of two seasons. In his first eight starts of the season, Darvish had six starts in which he walked four or more batters, and in his first 13 starts of the year, he managed to walk three or more batters in 10 of them. Walks were absolutely killing him, and after the first two months of the season, he had an absurd walk rate of 6.0 K/9. In his last 13 starts, Darvish has completely and utterly flipped the script, allowing three walks or more in exactly zero of those starts. Even more impressively, in his last nine starts, he has walked two batters in 54 innings while striking out 71.

We often see guys improve their control over the course of a season, but I cannot remember an establish starter going from one absolute extreme to the other quite like this. He still has an issue with allowing home runs, as his 30 rank him in the bottom five in baseball, and he has even allowed 12 in this 54-inning stretch detailed above. Obviously, with the strikeouts and potential ratio and win upside, Darvish is an easy start every week the rest of the way if you own him, but where the heck do we slot him in next year?

I love the monster upside he possesses, as the K:BB has been as elite as it gets over the last couple months, and if he could just limit the homers (he has allowed a low hard hit rate overall), he could be among the elite, but it seems like there's always something that comes up with Darvish. I'm nowhere near doing any 2020 rankings yet, as I'm focusing on 2019 still, but I think right now I would ballpark at about SP25, and that could move up or down a little bit based on his last handful of starts plus whatever he throws in the postseason. I can already feel myself getting suckered yet again!

FAAB Feelings

During the majority of the season when we're looking for long-term fixes, I like to do deep dives on the FAAB players I highlight, but with five and half weeks left, we are looking for help right now, so I am going to talk about a few more players than usual this week, but in more rapid fire style.

Tom Murphy  Murphy is only owned in 53 percent of NFBC Main Event 15-teamers and a mere two percent of the 12-teamers, and is clearly a guy who should be owned right now in two-catcher leagues. With his recent hot streak, Murphy now has 16 homers on the season to go with a .293 average in just under 200 plate appearances. He has been absolutely white hot recently with six homers in only 30 August at-bats.

Murphy was a thing in draft leagues a few years ago, as he looked like the next Rockies catcher after showing pop in the minors, and people got excited about seeing him in Coors Field. It never worked there but clearly is at the moment, and when Murphy does play, he has moved up to fifth in the lineup on some nights. At this point of the year, especially at a spot like catcher and off the waiver, ride the hot streak now and enjoy it while it lasts.

Tim Lopes After their insanely good start, the Mariners have pretty much been a mess, and we stick in Seattle here and sometimes struggling teams can provide us some opportunities to pick up interesting fantasy players. Lopes was recalled in early August and has played almost every day since his callup, even finding a few games at the top of the lineup after Mallex Smith was benched/temporarily moved down in the lineup.

The intrigue with Lopes comes for any fantasy owner who needs stolen bases down the stretch. Lopes has flashed solid speed in the minors with a 35-steal season in 2015 and 26 this year in 95 AAA games. Lopes isn't going to help you with power (he did hit 10 homers this year in Triple-A, but everyone has flashed power there this year), but he has already stolen three bases in 16 games with the Mariners, and if he can keep the playing time and the green light he clearly has right now, has a good chance to toss in another handful of swipes over the season's final five weeks.

Kyle Seager Ok, one more Mariner! Seager started the year on the Injured List, and even after returning, hit only nine homers in his first two months with a batting average under .220 and was roundly returned to most waiver wires by anyone who grabbed him when he was first activated. Seager has been fantastic since the start of August, hitting eight homers and even hitting .323 in that short stretch. He's never going to help your average, but power hitters can get in nice grooves, and Seager should be owned in more than 53 percent of the NFBC 12-teamers right now and is a nice add for anyone needing to made up ground in homers or RBI.

Delino DeShields Jr Speaking of guys who aren't going to help your batting average, we find DeShields who hit .216 last year in 106 games but has managed a .261 average this year. The appeal with DeShields is clearly significant stolen base upside and the important factor with him right now is that is he is playing every game in center field for the Rangers. He hits in the bottom of the lineup, which is less than ideal, but he appears to have a bright green light on the base paths right now with four steals over his last four games and now has 20 on the year in only 90 games. DeShields can get cold at any time, but if he stays in the lineup and can just be okay with the bat, you're going to get five to seven steals down the stretch, which is a huge factor in a tight category like stolen bases. He is available in about half of the NFBC 12-team leagues and is the guy to grab now if you are in any kind of tight stolen base competition.

Adrian Houser Pitching is tough again this week, as there aren't many two-start pitchers available in FAAB, and the ones who are available frighten me or won't go deep enough in games to give the strikeouts and wins you covet. I considered writing up Homer Bailey who has been very good for the A's in five of his seven starts (yes, the other two were truly horrible), but the back half of his week being in Yankee Stadium pulled me off of him, as I anticipate that start going poorly at best.

Instead, I look at Houser, who has been pitching well lately and maybe could help you as more than just a streamer in deeper leagues.  Since rejoining the Brewers rotation in late July, Houser has allowed exactly one earned run in four of his five starts and has really ramped it up in his last three starts with three earned runs in 18.1 innings while striking out 20. Houser's overall numbers between the rotation and the bullpen are pretty solid with a 3.62 ERA in 82 innings, and he has shown some strikeout potential with a 9.3 K/9 strikeout rate.

In addition to the strikeouts, I also like that Houser limits fly balls and gets a ton of ground balls with a 54.9 percent ground ball rate. Houser gets a home start this week against the Cardinals and then his two-start week, but unfortunately, it's against the Astros and Cubs. That is a scary set up for ratios, but if you need strikeouts and wins, it would be the one I would likely be willing to throw. Houser is only 40 percent owned in NFBC 12-team leagues, and grabbing him this week could save you a few bucks before the two-start week, and he just might end up sticking on your squad the rest of the way.

Nick Ahmed Ahmed is only 44 percent owned in NFBC 12-team leagues, which is maybe a testament to the depth at middle infield this year as we have a ton of multiposition guys who can fill in around lineups. However, I just think Ahmed is better than some higher owned middle infielders right now. On the year, Ahmed is hitting .271 with a career-high 17 homers and also has seven steals to go along with strong run and RBI work. Ahmed has made real strides at the dish this year, dropping his strikeout rate to 17.7 percent while also increasing his walk rate to 8.9 percent.

Ahmed's batting average is also not BABIP driven, which is nice to see as his BABIP is only .296. This is now back to back years where Ahmed has maintained a nice hard hit rate, too, as he currently sits at 28.6 percent and he has also pushed his average exit velocity up to 87.4 mph, the highest of his career. Ahmed has been especially warm as of late, hitting .323 with seven homers in 19 games. If he's still available in your league, I would strongly examine your middle infielders to make sure he can't help you.

A Closer Look

It hasn't been an easy year for some of the higher end closers in drafts, and while Kenley Jansen has not lost his job for the Dodgers, he has had some hiccups and needed the dreaded vote of confidence from manager Dave Roberts after blowing a save on Wednesday night. Jansen has actually increased his strikeout rate to 11.8 K/9 from 2018, although not to his prior elite levels, much like his walks that are still strong at 2.0 BB/9, but not quite where he was from 2015 to 2017. The other issue that has reared its ugly head the last two seasons is his issue with the home run ball. After allowing only nine homers in 2017 and 2018 combined, he surrendered 13 in 2018 and has already allowed eight in 48.2 innings.

After many years of excellent hard hit avoidance, Jansen has allowed a 39 percent hard hit rate, but he still is top five in baseball in average exit velocity allowed at 84.5 mph and has managed to only allow nine barrels all year (apparently, they all go over the fence!). For a guy who only throws one pitch (88.5 percent fastballs, well, a cutter for him), it's possible the drop in velocity to 91.9 mph has allowed guys to zone him up a little better when he does make a mistake, although the home run allowed to Rowdy Tellez on Wednesday night wasn't even in the strike zone so it's hard to criticize him too much for that pitch.

The concern with Jansen in fantasy leagues is because of how much he has struggled recently with a 5.14 ERA in 14 innings since July 1, it may cause the Dodgers to back off from him, as they don't really need to push anyone until the playoffs start. I tend to think Jansen is going to right himself, but these next few save opportunities are going to be really big, as another blown save or two might cause Roberts to give him a break from the job, which would be brutal for anyone who owns him in fantasy leagues, as every save is just gold right now. Jansen's price next year will be interesting too, but as of now, I would be very interested in buying back in at a discounted price.

Series of the Weekend.

Yankees at Dodgers. Well, when you get the two best records in baseball and the two most storied franchises in baseball matching up for a three-game inter-league matchup, it has to be the series to watch this weekend. Even though the Yankees have lost four in a row (Boom, Oaktown!), the Yankees still lead the American League in wins, and this series will be jumping in Chavez Ravine, as these teams don't play each other very often, and seeing them battle brings back many memories of World Series past. Both squads have large leads in their respective divisions, and, as a result, they may not play a ton of meaningful September games, so this may be the most fun series each of them play until the playoffs start.

Cy Young candidate Hyun-Jin Ryu takes the mound for the Dodgers on Friday night with his 1.64 ERA ready for a big test against the Yankees offense. Ryu will be a fascinating guy to watch in ADP heading into 2020, as he now has — unheard of in this era — back-to-back seasons with an ERA under 2.00 but has also seen his strikeouts drop significantly from 9.7 K/9 to 7.6 K/9 this year. His control has been impeccable with a 1.1 BB/9 walk rate, but without the strikeouts, it's hard to put him among the elite pitchers despite the ridiculous ratios. I love watching Ryu pitch (well, when I can, living in L.A.) and loved his price this year, but if he's going to be a third or fourth rounder next year, I'm probably going to have to pass.

Taking the mound to battle Ryu for the Yankees on Friday will be James Paxton whom the Yankees acquired in the offseason to push their rotation over the top. Of course, at the time, they had no idea their other ace, Luis Severino, would not only not start the year in the rotation, but possibly not pitch all season long. Paxton has managed to take the ball 22 times for the Yankees, but it hasn't been as good as they or fantasy owners expected.

Through 113.1 innings, he has posted a 4.53 ERA, and while the strikeouts have been good at 11.2 K/9, he has struggled with walks at a 3.5 BB/9 walk rate, his highest since 2015. He doesn't seem to be turning the corner either as he actually has a 5.53 ERA in 71.2 innings since the start of the summer. I have really enjoyed the Yankees season as they have responded to a slew of injuries almost all season long, but if they are going to win multiple playoff series, they are going to need Paxton to figure himself out and pitch like the ace he can be, and a great start Friday against the Dodgers would be an excellent time to start that turnaround.