This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks Tonight: Best MLB Bets, Props and Same Game Parlays for Wednesday, May 17
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2023 regular-season record: 0-4 (-4.00 RW Bucks)
I'm focused on a matchup in each league Wednesday evening and looking to take advantage of what appear to be especially appealing matchups for one team's bats and another's starting pitcher.
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
Angels starter Griffin Canning sports a 2-1 record that's partly belied by his 6.38 ERA, but he actually sported a solid 4.11 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in his first three starts before stumbling against the Cardinals and Astros his last two times out. However, impressive as the Orioles' start has been this season, Baltimore is surprisingly tame against right-handed pitching at Camden Yards, especially lately. The O's have just a .222 average, .297 wOBA and -3.9 wRAA in that split during May.
Orioles starter Kyle Bradish, meanwhile, has a much tougher matchup by the numbers. The Angels have been unforgiving against righties on the road this month, posting a .308 average, .838 OPS, .361 wOBA and 9.1 wRAA in that split (263 plate appearances). Bradish is also allowing an especially elevated amount of hard contact – always troublesome against a lineup that boasts Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Hunter Renfroe – yielding a 48.1 percent hard-hit rate per Statcast. He also has a 7.56 ERA and 1.92 WHIP at home over a small 8.1-inning sample, and respective 5.30 and 1.50 figures there since 2021.
MLB Best Bets for Angels at Orioles
- Angels +0.5 – 1st 5 innings (-112 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- SGP: Angels +2.5 and Over 7.5 runs (+135 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
The Brewers' Corbin Burnes has seen a notable drop in strikeout rate thus far this season, but his fastball is still clocking 95.4 mph on average and he's coming off having produced seven punchouts against the Royals last time out. The Cardinals have been tough against right-handed pitching at home all season, but Burnes has been at his best on the road (2.96 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 0.7 HR/9) across 24.1 innings. The same holds true for a larger sample dating back to the 2021 season, and Burnes has also stymied current Cardinals bats to the tune of a collective .213/.265/.343 slash line in 181 career encounters.
The Cardinals will call up southpaw Matthew Liberatore from Triple-A Memphis for this start, and the 2018 first-round pick of the Rays could hardly ask for a better matchup on paper for his 2023 big-league debut. The Brewers have been abysmal against left-handed pitching on the road, posting a 32.9 percent strikeout rate, .221 average, -8.7 wRAA and MLB-low .251 wOBA in that split this season. Cards relievers have also been on a roll in May, pitching to a .221 BAA, .292 wOBA and 3.02 ERA across a 227-batter sample.
MLB Best Bets for Brewers at Cardinals:
- Under 8 runs (-112 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Cardinals +0.5 – 1st 5 innings (-140 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Angels +0.5 – 1st 5 innings (-112 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- SGP: Angels +2.5 and Over 7.5 runs (+135 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Brewers-Cardinals Under 8 runs (-112 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Cardinals +0.5 – 1st 5 innings (-140 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck