This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Picks Today: Saturday, March 29

MLB season has arrived! Now that my voluminous drafting schedule has (almost) ended, it's time to shift some focus to the wagering markets. Let's start the season off right with some winners!

Brewers vs. Yankees 

Brewers ML (+140) (Caesars)

It's the Nestor Cortes Revenge Game! Nasty Nestor returns to The Bronx in his first start for the Brew Crew. He will face off against Max Fried, himself making his debut for a new team. 

As I mentioned on Rotowire Fantasy Sports Today on Thursday (thanks for having me on!), there are some impressive recent trends backing Milwaukee in this series. The Brewers have truly thrived on the road in March-April games in recent seasons, going 38-15 with a 44.79% Return on Investment (ROI) back to 2021. They have also gone 39-25 with a 19.97% ROI in Interleague road games in the last 4 seasons. Yankee opponents in interleague games went 13-7 last year for a whopping 61.8% ROI at The House That Derek Jeter Built. Oh and one more number. Oh and one more number. The Brewers are 103–74, 12.72% ROI on the road when the total is between 7.5 and 8.5 back to 2021.

Of course, all these trends applied to Thursday's season opener. Jackson Chourio struck out 5 times and the Yankees won 4-2 despite Devin Williams making it super tenuous in the 9th in his own Revenge Game. I generally like the Brewers to keep it going in 2025 as they do every season, and for Chourio and a healthier Christian Yelich to make up for the loss of Willy Adames. Nestor pitched much better at Yankee Stadium last season (3.11 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) than on the road (4.46 and 1.31, respectively). In his breakout All-Star 2022 campaign, he was a crazy good 1.95 ERA, .82 WHIP pitcher at home. Yes, he now has to face the Yankees, but it's clearly a park that has suited him well. I will bank on that to continue.

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Giants at Reds 

Under 8.5 (Caesars)

We have another fun pitching matchup here. Walk-in Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander makes his Giants debut, while Nick Lodolo takes the ball for the Reds. Both hurlers had 2024 seasons to forget. Verlander missed months with a neck injury and finished with an ugly 5.48 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 90.1 IP. His xERA of 3.78 suggests he was not quite that bad, though his 4.80 SIERA and decade-low 18.7% disagree. He looked healthy and better this spring with a 22.1% K% and 11% SwStr% and, optimistically, he's a good mid-rotation arm in 2025.

Lodolo obviously does not have Verlander's track record (few do) but he has major skills and also comes off an injury-wrecked lousy 2024 (4.76 ERA in 115 IP). In his case, though, all the estimators suggested he was more like a mid to high 3's ERA pitcher with poor luck. And Lodolo looked terrific in Spring with a 28.6% K% and whopping 16.9% SwStr%.

The game is at the Great American (Sm)allpark, but I like the under anyway thanks to a few trends. The Giants headed into the season 70-51, 11.64% ROI in unders on the road vs. non-division league opponents back to 2021. Meanwhile Reds home unders have gone 62-42, 13.68% in the last 2 seasons so long as the total is less than 10. And when the Reds were home ML favorites over that span, their unders went 48-32, 14.59%. Like the Yankee game, this one missed on Thursday, though it was a tough beat as the Reds led 3-2 with two outs in the top of the 9th before the Giants teed off for 4 runs. Hey, it happens! I will go back to this well, though.

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MLB Picks Recap

Brewers +140

Giants-Reds Under 8.5