This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
After my first losing week of the season, we bounced back with a 2-1-1 record in my last piece. That gets my season record to 31-12-2, and I couldn't have hoped for better results. We're actually right at the halfway point of the season, and it's the best time to play on PrizePicks. There are so many picks available that it's nearly impossible to limit it to four options, but that's what we love about this game. With that said, there were four that stood out above the rest, so let's start by talking about some pitchers!
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Jacob Latz, TEX at BAL: Fewer Than 5.0 Strikeouts
What if I told you that a pitcher making his third career start needs six strikeouts to clear this prop? What if I prefaced that by saying he debuted back in 2021, appearing in 64 of his 66 games as a reliever? The only start this year was in his most recent outing, with Latz failing to record a strikeout across 5.1 innings! Latz only threw 82 pitches in this game, and it would be hard to imagine him reaching 90 since he's come out of the pen all season.
There's no doubt that Baltimore has struggled this yar, but this lineup is plenty talented to get to a pitcher like this. They rank 13th in OPS and 15th in runs scored over the last month, while seeing their K rate decrease in that span. The O's still have an ugly 24 percent K rate as a team, but Latz has four or fewer strikeouts in 65 of his 66 career appearances. This is more about the 5.0-strikeout line rather than the matchup, because it's just something we haven't really seen before.
Freddy Peralta, MIL vs. PIT: More Than 17.5 Outs Recorded
I wasn't sure if I should go with Peralta's strikeouts or outs, but we'll go with the outs because it feels like a safer pick. Peralta only needs to complete six innings to surpass this prop, and he's done that in three of his last four starts. In addition, Peralta has a 2.71 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 16 starts this season. We didn't even mention his sensational splits, with Peralta posting a 1.32 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in Milwaukee this year.
All of that makes Peralta a safe option to reach the seventh inning, but this matchup couldn't be much better. The Pirates have been one of the worst offenses in baseball, ranked 29th in wOBA, runs scored and OPS. This righty has also completed at least 18 outs in two of his last three home matchups with Pittsburgh.
Luis Arraez, SD vs. WAS: More Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (vs. Trevor Williams)
Arraez isn't the best fantasy option because of his lack of speed and power, but there aren't many better options to clear props like these. This second baseman is nearly a lock for a hit on every slate, entering this matchup amid a nine-game hitting streak. Most importantly, Arraez has cleared this total in seven of those, hitting cleanup against right-handers. That's easy to understand when you see Arraez's .336 AVG and .816 OPS against them over the last three years.
Hitting cleanup in this lineup should put Arraez in an optimal spot to grab some RBI, especially against a pitcher like Williams. The veteran has a 5.54 ERA and 1.45 WHIP while posting one of the worst strikeout rates in baseball (17.6 percent). Having such poor strikeout stuff is even more troublesome against a hitter who traditionally leads the league with the fewest strikeouts. In 18 at-bats against Williams, Arraez has accrued a .389 AVG and 1.034 OPS!
Rafael Devers, SF vs. MIA: More Than 7.5 Fantasy Score (vs. Cal Quantrill)
It remains to be seen how the Devers experiment will work in San Fran, but this is an opportunity for the All-Star to get going. Since starting the season 0-for-19, Devers has a .409 OBP and .938 OPS in 74 games. That's the superstar we've become accustomed to, scoring at least 7.5 fantasy points in 45 of those 74 games.
The best part about this prop is the matchup with Quantrill. The Marlins pitcher has been one of the worst pitchers in the sport, generating a 5.68 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. That's scary when looking at Devers' splits, as he's sporting a .376 OBP and .914 OPS against righties over the last three years.
