This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
After going 1-2 in my first article, we bounced back with a 4-0 week last Monday! That's rarely going to happen, but I'm getting a grasp on how these PrizePicks props work. My favorite picks tend to be the strikeout props, but that's not where all the value lies. It's never clear which ones are going to be the best until we dig through them all and find the best values.
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Tanner Houck, BOS at TB: More Than 3.5 Strikeouts
It's been a struggle for Houck through the opening two weeks, but this guy is too good to have a prop this low. We're encouraged by his most recent start, with Houck allowing one run across 6.2 innings. The strikeout stuff has been slow to come around, but we're talking about a pitcher who had a 3.12 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in a breakout 2024 season.
Houck also cleared this 3.5-strikeout total in 22 of 30 starts last season, posting a 1.08 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 rate in three starts against the Rays. Tampa is far from a terrifying lineup, ranked 20th in runs scored. That was on full display when Houck cleared 3.5 strikeouts in all three of their matchups last season.
Grant Holmes, ATL at TOR: More Than 15.5 Pitching Outs
Holmes appears to be a mainstay in this rotation, throwing four scoreless innings in his most recent start. That might look concerning on the surface when talking about an outs recorded prop, but we're encouraged by his pitch count. The righty threw 89 pitches in his second start and got up to 104 in his most recent outing. This guy will reach the sixth inning more often than not if he's throwing 100 pitches.
Holmes' late-season form has carried over into this solid start, providing a 3.26 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over the final two months. Facing a team like Toronto might sound terrifying on the surface, but this righty-heavy lineup doesn't concern us. The Blue Jays rank 22nd in OPS against righties and have very little depth to oppose right-handed pitching.
Christian Yelich, MIL vs. DET: More Than 0.5 Strikeouts
It feels bizarre to recommend a strikeout prop against a hitter like this, but something is off with Yelich. The former MVP has a .154 AVG and .625 OPS in a nightmarish start to the season. He's been even worse against lefties, posting a .053 AVG and .270 OPS against them. He's also got a 26 percent K rate while striking out in 10 of 15 games.
That horrific form makes Yelich a tough sell against anyone, but a matchup with Tarik Skubal is a nightmare. The AL Cy Young winner has a 2.58 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over the last three years. His numbers against lefties are even more absurd, flirting with a 0.50 WHIP and 30 percent K rate against them.
Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. COL: More Than 9.0 Fantasy Score
It feels unfair to recommend a hitter like Ohtani against a pitcher like Antonio Senzatela. Let's start there because the Rockies righty has a 5.82 ERA and 2.01 WHIP since the start of last year. That ERA could be two runs higher when evaluating that WHIP, and there's no chance he slows down a lineup like LA. The Dodgers dropped six runs on him in their most recent matchup, with Shohei sporting a .667 OBP and 1.267 OPS in six at-bats against Senzatela.
The numbers speak for themselves when evaluating Ohtani, leading the league in fantasy points since the start of last season. Shohei has a .423 OBP and 1.128 OPS against righties over the last three years. Most of his steals have also been against them, and it wouldn't be shocking to see Ohtani clear this prop in his second at-bat of the game.
