MLB Picks: Peter Schoenke's 2025 MLB Win Totals To Target

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Predictions: MLB Win Totals 2025 from Peter Schoenke

Before each baseball season the last 24 years I've written a story at RotoWire with my best bets for the season-long MLB win totals. I'm a big fan of the season win total bets ever since I started making them in person in Las Vegas back in the late 1990s. I've used several concepts of sabrermetrical analysis to try to find teams that appeared to be good historical bets.

I've had a decent track record, winning 61 of 116 (with one push) bets for a 52.5 percent win rate. My best bet each season is 19-18 (I had multiple biggest bets some years). On bets of $100 or more (I vary my bet size to emphasize how strongly I feel about the pick) where I'm 14-14 (53.8 percent). I'm most impressive when looking at the total amount bet, where I've been correct 54.5 percent of the time ($3,625 in winning bets, $3,025 in losers - not factoring in the vig*).

However, I have had a rough few years. Last year's cover photo for the story were the Royals. I took the under. They instead improved by 30 games. The year before, I took the under on the Orioles. They improved by 18 games and were the surprise team to make the playoffs. 

My track record lately has waned as I'm 3-8 in the past two seasons. And the early Japan games to start the season didn't fit with my schedule. But after 24 years, I still think these methods have merit. And there are some big outliers of statistical metrics that may be ripe to take advantage of. So here is my take on the 2025 season from a wagering perspective.

For this exercise, I'm using MLB odds from FanDuel as of March 24.

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MLB Betting Strategy

When I look at an upcoming baseball season, there are eight methods I use to judge which teams might be a good bet: Three are statistical, four are observations I've had watching the bookies set season-long lines for MLB and other sports and lately I've thrown in a wild-card pick with no particular theoretical basis. Here's the breakdown on these theories and the teams I decided to actually wager on.

Here's my take on each team, with more analysis below on those I selected as my "bets."

2025 MLB Win Totals Bets

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The Johnson Effect

The Johnson Effect argues that a team that scores more runs or allows fewer runs than most statistical formulas would suggest is bound to regress the next season. For example, if one team scores more runs than sabermetrical formulas such as Runs Created or OPS might suggest, then it will score less the next season. The theory works based on the fact that sometimes a team has more success than it should just based on pure luck. A bad bounce here, a fluke play here  - they can add up in one season and make a team look more powerful than it should be.

My favorite type of statistic for this analysis is a tool called the Pythagorean Theory. You probably learned the Pythagorean theory in trigonometry, but in baseball, it means that the ratio of a team's wins and losses will be similar to the relationship between the square of its runs scored and the square of its runs allowed. 

If the runs a team scores and gives up in any given season don't translate into the expected win total from the Pythagorean Theory, that means something odd took place that should turn around next season.

Using the Johnson Effect and applying the Pythagorean Theory, who looks like they'll rebound in 2025? Here are the top teams that should have had more or fewer wins based on their 2024 runs allowed/created than they actually tallied:

I usually like to look for teams that have a differential of ten or more games. None of these three teams qualify; however, it could be a factor in believing the White Sox can improve.

 The Plexiglas Principle

This theory says that any team that improves dramatically in one season is likely to decline the next season.

What teams made such dramatic moves from 2023 to 2024?

Since 1970, teams that have improved by 19 or more games declined 7.42 wins the following season. The Royals stand out with their huge gains last season. Their 30-win jump was the sixth largest since 1970. Teams that improved by 30 or more games declined by an average of 9 games the following season. 

The sportsbooks have the Royals declining just 3.5 games in 2025. By both measures, that's too few. The Royals made just one significant acquisition to improve in the offseason by trading for Jonathan India, though they did subtract starting pitching depth by trading away Brady Singer. Unless India turns out to be a 5-win improvement, the sportsbooks are counting on almost everything else to go as well as last season. I'll bet $200 the Royals don't win more than 82.5 games.

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The Reverse Plexiglas Principle

When a team has consistently been a winner and then experiences a sudden drop-off, there is a strong likelihood that its win total will rebound. Or at least that's my theory.

Here are the teams that declined the most in 2024: 

The Rays are the prime candidate of this group since the team's decline was unexpected and they've had winning records the prior six seasons. However, the sportsbooks have priced in just a 1.5-game improvement for Tampa Bay. 

The Rays didn't really lose anyone of significance in the offseason. Meanwhile, Shane McClanahan could return from Tommy John surgery, and the Rays have a lot of upside with young prospects (Junior Caminero) and younger veterans with upside (Shane Baz, Jonathan Aranda, Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot). The team's move to Steinbrenner Field and playing outdoors due to the hurricane damage to Tropicana Field brings in some variance. That could hurt the pitching staff with outdoor humidity and a short right-field porch, but it could help the young left-handed hitters. Let's call it a wash. I'll bet $25 the Rays win more than 80.5 games.

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The Bottom Feeder Bet

The theory here is that sportsbooks really need to set the win totals low to entice bets on unexciting teams. However, in the past 24 years, teams that the sportsbooks peg to win less than 64 games cover 66.7% of the time (10 of 15). While it's a small sample size, teams have covered 66.7% (6 of 9) when the line is less than 60 wins. The three lowest lines set by the sportsbooks this century have all made the over (2020 Tigers, 2024 A's, 2020 Orioles).

Coming off an all-time 121-loss season, the sportsbooks have the White Sox set for the lowest win total since I've been keeping track in 2001. The White Sox at 54.5 wins is three wins lower than any full-season projected team (Oakland in 57.4 in 2024) except the 2020 Baltimore Orioles with an equivalent of 55.35 wins. Of course, that was the COVID-shortened year, so that Orioles team may not be a good example.

The most recent historical example we have of a similar large loss total to the White Sox are the 2004 Tigers, who lost 119 games. Detroit had also lost over 100 games the prior year (106) but they made some improvements and the sportsbooks set their line at 67.5 for 2005. The Tigers topped that total and won 71 games.

I know the White Sox roster coming out of spring training may be even worse than last year's record-breaking stinker. However, the White Sox farm system is on the upswing as it's 6th in MLB.com's rankings and 12th in Keith Law of The Athletic's rankings. Many of their better prospects are near major league ready (Sean Burke, Edgar Quero, Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel, Chase Meidroth). 

The sportsbooks have the White Sox making a large 13.5-win climb, but I think they can do better by just a few lucky bounces here and there. I don't feel too strongly about it, though. They will still likely be the worst team in the league. I'll take $25 the White Sox win more than 54.5 games.

The Book's Biggest Movers

The next thing I look at is what teams the bookies think will have the biggest improvement or decline.

While the Angels did spend some money this offseason (Yusei Kikuchi, Kenley Jansen) and acquired some talent (Jorge Soler), this is still a franchise without a plan and going nowhere. Add in the fact that both MLB.com and Keith Law rank the franchise as having the worst farm system in the majors and it's hard to get behind a significant improvement. I'll wager $50 the Angels win less than 72.5 games. 

The Brewers seem like an odd team to have the largest decline in the majors. The team did lose two stars in Devin Williams and Willy Adames, but Williams missed half of last season and the Brewers have a litter of young infield talent who can partially replace Adames. I'll take $50 on the Brewers winning more than 82.5 games.

The Book's Non Movers

The Cubs, A's, Reds, Twins, and Rays should all improve. The Royals being on this list is another reason to take the under. Same with the Rays and the over. The A's did improve 19 games and their incredibly awkward move to Sacramento (shush, don't use their city name!) gives me pause, however. But they made significant signings and have a nice crop of up-and-coming hitters. 

The Twins had an odds-defying collapse in the final six weeks that likely won't be duplicated. They return almost the exact same team but with increased pitching depth due to several prospects ready at Triple-A (Zebby Matthews, David Festa). 

The Cubs made enough moves by trading for Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly (though curiously trading away Cody Bellinger for unnecessary cost savings), and the Reds with a big upgrade at manager plus a return to health for several of their promising young hitters and starting pitchers. I'll bet $25 the Cubs win more than 86.5 games. I'll bet $25 that the Reds win more than 79.5 games. I'll also bet the Twins win more than 83.5 games.

Wild Card

I've occasionally chosen a bet for this article that doesn't fit any statistical theory but rather is a trend that I've followed. Last year, that theory would be on principle that you should take the under on any team to win 100 games. But I didn't take the bet since the Dodgers (who the sportsbook set at 103.5 wins) had won over 100 in five of the previous six full seasons. Oops. 

Since 2001, the sportsbooks have had four teams with over 100 wins. Only one of the four won more than 100 the next season: the 2021 Dodgers. 

It's a small sample, but with the expanded playoffs, the Dodgers don't have much to gain by winning much over 100 games. If they're winning the division comfortably, I could see them cruising into the playoffs and giving starters (especially starting pitchers) extra rest. Of course, I missed making this bet before the Dodgers' two wins in the Japan series at 103.5 wins. However, Fanduel is still offering the bet at 105.5 wins before the state-side Opening Day. I'll bet $25 the Dodgers win less than 105.5 games.

 MLB Win Total Best Bets for 2025 Recap

 *One note: My bets/track record doesn't account for the variations in extra juice you need to pay. Most lines are -110, meaning the sportsbook takes about five percent on each bet. The "vig" tends to be higher on these bets than for single games. Sometimes, the vig can vary widely, such as when the 2016 Rangers' under of 83.5 wins was at -140 (the under was +110). It's another method for the bookmakers to alter how the money is coming in on each side so it gets to their comfort level. Or it's a way to change the odds without moving the win total.

If you are making a lot of bets, this is a serious factor in the math. But I don't bother to take that into account because I'm more focused on the overall wins number from a team perspective. Plus, I forgot to keep track of the vig in the early years.

I vary the dollar amounts below as a way to show how confident I am in the bet (the $300 bet on the 2004 Royals is my all-time high), so there are some holes in the math if you added in all the varying vigs.

Here's the breakdown: 

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