MLB Picks: NL Central Odds and Best Bets

Written by

Adam Warner

Published on March 1, 2025

Best MLB Bets Today: NL Central Rundown

Welcome to the NL Central, where the goal is to spend as little on payroll as possible then cry poverty.

NL Central Odds

Chicago Cubs +125
Milwaukee Brewers +260
St Louis Cardinals +600
Cincinnati Reds +650
Pittsburgh Pirates +1500

*odds courtesy of DraftKings

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Projected NL Central Standings 2025

*courtesy of Fangraphs

MLB Picks: NL Central Futures and Betting Notes

Chicago Cubs

85.5 Wins (-115 Over)
To Make Playoffs -140 Yes, +115 No
Key Adds: Kyle Tucker, Matt Shaw (probably), Ryan Pressly, Matthew Boyd
Key Losses: Cody Bellinger, Isaac Paredes
Cubs Betting Notes
- '24 F5 Overs 22-12, 21.6% ROI vs lefty starters
- '22-'24 Home Unders 47-29, 18.05% when Cubs ML is plus money

Unlike the rest of the division, the Cubs did spend a bit this offseason. They got a superstar rental in Tucker at the immediate term cost of a hitter who was a terrible fit for the dimensions of Wrigley (Paredes) and a pitcher they only seemed to trust in a swing role (Hayden Wesneski).

They also added Pressly to close, which is kind of underwhelming given his declining skills but likely does let them use Porter Hodge in a fireman role, which could work well. On the other hand, just giving away Bellinger to avoid paying him is kind of weak for a big market team. But it totally clears the path for Pete Crow-Armstrong in Center, where he graded in 97th percentile in range last year and 96th percentile in arm strength as per Statcast. They have generally solid players all around and two near-ace SPs in Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga, and definitely look like the class of this motley division. I will roll with Over 85.5 wins

Milwaukee Brewers

83.5 Wins (-120 Under)
To Make Playoffs +125 Yes, -150 No
Key Add: Nestor Cortes
Key Losses: Willy Adames, Devin Williams. Frankie Montas
Brewers Betting Notes
- '24 F5 Home Overs 52-32, 19% ROI
- '21-'24 Road in March-April 38-15, 44.79% ROI

The Brewers tend to trade their stars just ahead of free agency (Corbin Burnes, Josh Hader, Williams last off-season) or let them walk (Adames), yet they always seem to manage to make the playoffs anyway. Can they pull another rabbit out of the hat?

Jackson Chourio first turns 21 next month and already looks like a superstar…and they have him signed potentially through 2033. The starting pitching seems thin behind Freddy Peralta, but they piece together great bullpens every year. Williams only pitched 21.2 innings in '24 and they still had the 2nd best bullpen ERA in MLB, on the 4th most innings. Adames' offense will be tougher to replace, but this team has earned trust until proven otherwise. I will defy Fangraphs and take over 83.5 wins at +100

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St Louis Cardinals

77.5 Wins (-115 Over)
To Make Playoffs +360 Yes, -475 No
Key Add: Literally no one
Key Loss: Paul Goldshmidt
Cardinals Betting Notes
- '24 39-36, 13.5% ROI as ML underdog
- '21-'24 Road Unders in March-April 33-20, 19.27% ROI

The Cardinals set out this offseason to unload their bigger contracts and give some younger players more run. It didn't happen; Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado are all still here, though Arenado could still get moved. The pitching after Gray looks awful, and if they ever make a transaction again it will make the team worse in the present. Well, unless it's to clear rotation spots for Michael McGreevy and/or Quinn Mathews. Still, let's go under 77.5 wins at -105

Cincinnati Reds

78.5 Wins
To Make Playoffs +300 Yes, -400 No
Key adds: Brady Singer, Gavin Lux, Matt McClain (from injury)
Key Loss: Jonathan India
Reds Betting Notes
- '24 Unders 38-21, 21.5% in Day games
- '21-'24 Road Interleague, 40-26, 34.32% ROI

The Reds exciting young core looked great headed into 2024, then just about everything went wrong. McClain never played, Christian Encarnacion-Strand hit .190 with a .233 wOBA in 123 PA's and then spent most of the season on the IL. Noelvi Marte was suspended for PED's for the first 80 games then played really badly upon his return. On the plus side, Hunter Greene pitched like an ace and Elly De La Cruz hit 25 homers and led the league with 67 steals. Singer, a re-signed Nick Martinez, and a hopeful bounceback from Nick Lodolo solidify the rotation and McClain approaching his rookie form would be huge. I will go optimistic here and roll with the over 78.5 wins

Pittsburgh Pirates

77.5 Wins
To Make Playoffs +360 Yes, -475 No
Key Adds:Tommy Pham, Spencer Horwitz, Andrew Heaney
Key Losses: The notion they would maybe spend to win
Pirates Betting Notes
- '24 Run Line 29-18 14% ROI vs Lefty starters
- '23-'23 Home Overs 51-24 26.97% when Pirates ML is plus money

The Pirates sit in an enviable position with high quality starting pitchers at affordable prices. They are fronted by instant superstar and NL Cy Young favorite Paul Skenes, along with Jared Jones (3.72 SIERA, 1.19 WHIP, 18.5% K-BB% in an injury shortened rookie season). They have another potential star SP in Bubba Chandler ready to go when they want to start his service time clock. It's a really winnable division, so it's the perfect time to invest in the product, right? Nah, it's the Pirates. They haven't signed a free agent to a multi-year deal since they snagged Ivan Nova in 2017. Why start now? I'm on the Under 77.5 wins.