This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Two of the Hottest Teams in MLB
Square Off in Philadelphia
The Philadelphia Phillies had their six-game win streak snapped Tuesday in a 4-2 loss to the NL East-divisional-rival Braves, who lead the division by 5.5 games over the Miami Marlins and by nine games over the Phillies. This marks the second six-game win streak the Phillies have enjoyed in June, and they are 13-5 winning 72 percent of their games in June. The Philly offense is one of the better ones in MLB, but it has been the starting and relief pitching that has propelled the Phillies back into Wild Card contention.
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The Phillies' starting rotation ranks second with a 3.05 ERA, which is monumentally better than the 10.37 anomaly it posted in May. Right-hander Aaron Nola will be on the hill for the first pitch at 6:40 PM EST, and he has posted a 3.92 ERA and 1.099 WHIP in eight home starts, including 44 strikeouts and just 11 walks.
The Braves send A.J. Smith-Shawver to the hill to make his third start of the season. He has done quite well, but the scouts have had time to evaluate him to provide the Phillies' hitters with the best approach to get on base and score runs.
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A Highly Profitable Betting System
Betting on home teams with a season-to-date slugging percentage of 0.330 or lower over their last three games that are taking on a foe that has posted a 0.375 OBP over their last five games has earned a 65-44 record, averaging a +118 wager and earning a solid 37 percent ROI in games played over the past five seasons.
Teams like the Phillies that have won six or more of their last seven games and facing a foe that is on a seven-or-more-game win streak are 15-11 averaging a +105 wager and earning a 19 percent ROI. Bet the Phillies for eight units using the money line.
Player Prop Betting Opportunities
Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts –137 at BetRivers
Kyle Schwarber to score a run –145 at DraftKings
Trea Turner to hit a double +290 at DraftKings
Alec Bohm to have at least three hits +1300
Austin Riley to hit a home run +625 at Bet365
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Is it Time to Fade the Cincinnati Reds?
In the Midwest and deep south the weather has turned decidedly hotter, with average temperatures far above the averages for June. Many MLB teams have become quiet in their own way, and a few have stayed hot for most of June. Those teams are the usual names associated with hot streaks in the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves. However, a newcomer to the contender stage is the Cincinnati Reds.
Entering action on Wednesday, the Reds have won 10 consecutive games for the first time since 2012 when they won 10 consecutive games July 19-29. They lost the next game, but then went ahead and won five consecutive games before losing five in a row. From Aug. 5, when that five-game losing streak occurred, they went on to finish the rest of the regular season with a 33-27 record, averaging a –140 favorite for a –5 percent ROI. Their offensive production diminished over this period as the under went 33-22-5 for 60 percent winning bets. That somewhat-sluggish finish over the remaining third of the season was good enough for them to win the NL Central division with a 97-65 record.
This season the Reds rank 10th, scoring an average of 4.82 RPG, which is up 21 percent from last season's 4.00 RPG offensive production. The dominant reason the Reds are a serious contender is the vast improvement from their relievers, who are allowing just 1.86 runs per game this season. In each of the last three seasons their 'pen was their greatest weakness, allowing an average of 2.21 RPG and giving up 2.27 RPG last season. Their 'pen currently ranks 11th as compared to 26th in 2022 and 22nd in 2021.
Jonathan India for DFS action Friday
The Reds' second baseman Jonathan India is one of the leaders on the team and ranks high in many MLB offensive categories. He has played 74 games and is batting 0.269 with a 0.354 on-base percentage, including 10 home runs and 12 stolen bases. He did not have a hit in last night's 8-6 win over the Colorado Rockies. However, the Reds are 19-9 for 68 percent wins, and 20-8 for 71 percent on the run line following a game in which India did not have a hit this season. The Reds have a day off Thursday before taking on the Atlanta Braves for a three-game series. Moreover, the Reds with a day off and India coming off a game in which he was hitless are 15-11, averaging a +120 underdog and earning a highly profitable 26 percent ROI in games played over the past three seasons. So, regardless of India getting a hit Wednesday, he is in my DFS lineup Friday.
