This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Futures Odds: AL Central Rundown
Welcome to the AL Central where not one team has a top 16 payroll in MLB. But hey, someone has to win this thing. Three teams here made the playoffs in 2024 and the Guardians got to the ALCS, so who am I to question their frugality? Well, I am going to question it with my wallet and go with a prop on "One AL Central Team to make the playoffs" at +160
Get ready for MLB season with the sportsbook promos available at the best online sportsbooks such as the DraftKings promo code , which gets new players a Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets offer.
AL Central Odds
- Minnesota Twins +210
- KC Royals +270
- Detroit Tigers +270
- Cleveland Guardians +300
- Chicago White Sox +25000
*odds courtesy of DraftKings
AL Central Standings By Projections
As per Fangraphs, not much separates the teams not named "White Sox".
The BetMGM bonus code ROTOSPORTS gets new players a $1,500 First-Bet promo in March.
MLB Futures: AL Central Odds and Betting Notes
*Odds are found on DraftKings unless otherwise noted
Minnesota Twins
- 84.5 Wins (-120 Over)
- To Make Playoffs: +100 Yes, -120 No
- Key Adds: Harrison Bader, Ty France
- Key Loss: Carlos Santana
- Twins Betting Notes
- '24 Overs 67-49, 9.7% ROI as ML Favorite
- '22-'24 Road Overs 83-61, 10.55% ROI when ML is plus money
When your key adds are Harrison Bader and Ty France, you have not exactly gone all out to improve your squad, but they are the betting favorites in the division and tops in the Fangraphs algorithm. They do have three potential aces in Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan.
Their best hitters, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis, have well-documented durability issues. If they can somehow stay healthy, the Twins look like the best team in the division. That's a tough bet but I will still roll with the Wins under.
Detroit Tigers
- 83.5 Wins
- Tom Make Playoffs: +110 Yes, -130 No
- Key Adds: Gleyber Torres, Jack Flaherty
- Tigers Betting Notes
- '24 Run Line 56-27 12.4% as underdog
- '21-'24 Road 149-167 8.76% ROI
Flaherty thrived in Detroit last season with 2.95 ERA and .96 WHIP before they shipped him off to LA at the deadline. He's re-signed as a free agent and now slots in behind ace Tarik Skubal to give the Tigers a tough 1-2 punch. Signing Alex Bregman…or any big bat…would have helped a ton. As it is, they need Riley Greene and Parker Meadows to keep making strides. I don't see it quite there yet, I will go Under 83.5 wins.
Kansas City Royals
- 83.5 Wins
- To Make Playoffs: +110 Yes, -130 No
- Key Adds: Jonathan India, Carlos Estevez
- Key Loss: Brady Singer
- Royals Betting Notes
- '24 Road Unders 48-32, 13.7% ROI
- '21-'24 Road at minus money 38-21, 15.95%
Every team in this division has massive question marks. KC had the worst hitting OF in MLB last season with a crazy-bad .282 wOBA, and they will likely run the same guys back out there again in 2025. On the positive side, India, with his career .352 OBP, slots nicely in the leadoff spot in front of Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and the ageless Salvador Perez. They have an ace in Cole Ragans and a deep rotation behind him. Let's go with Over 83.5 wins and ½ unit on them to win the division at +270
Cleveland Guardians
- 82.5 Wins (-105 Over)
- To Make Playoffs: +120 Yes, -145 No
- Key Add: Carlos Santana
- Key Losses: Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez
- Guardians Betting Notes
- '24 72-42 7.4% as ML Favorites
- '23-'24 Road Unders 85-62 10.61% ROI
The Guardians stormed to 92 wins last season thanks to a monster year from Jose Ramirez (.279, 39 HR, 119 RBI) and a bullpen with a sparkling 2.57 ERA, easily best in the league. That contrasts pretty starkly with their SP's chugging in at a 4.40 ERA that ranked 24th. They'll need the same formula again in 2025 as Tanner Bibee rates as their only plus SP and the offense will likely tick down a bit.
Fangraphs' 15-win decline projection sounds like a lot. But per BaseRuns, which effectively unsequences hitting and pitching events, they were a .500 team last season (in more plain English, they hit and pitched disproportionately well in big spots and that is nonpredictive). I am on Team Mean Reversion here and will take the Under 82.5 wins.
Chicago White Sox
- 53.5 Wins
- To Make Playoffs: +40000 Yes, -20000 No
- Key Adds: Mike Tauchman, Martin Perez (well ok then)
- Key Loss: Garrett Crochet
- White Sox Betting Notes
- '24 Road 18-63 -38.5% ROI (!)
- '24 Home Under 47-31, 14.7% ROI
The books could not get the lines high enough on the Sox last season. The ROI on backing them for every game last season was -35.6%. The Angels were the 2nd worst at -12.1%.
The Sox have only gotten worse heading into '25 as they traded Crochet for a nice prospect haul that won't help them much, if at all, this season. But hey, as long as we are looking at BaseRuns, the Sox played like a 50-win team last season. Fangraphs pegs them for 63 wins in 2025, which makes the wins Over a raging buy, right?
Well, the algorithm can't really pick up that if anyone on a terrible team like this stands out in the 1st half of the season, they will almost certainly get traded. Or slowed down or shut if it's a young pitcher under team control. I will straight pass on a bet here.
MLB Best Bets: AL Central Futures
- One AL Central Team Makes Playoffs (+160)
- Twins Under 84.5 wins (+100)
- Tigers Under 83.5 Wins
- Royals Over 83.5 Wins
- Royals win division ½ unit (+270)
- Guardians Under 82.5 Wins (-115)
