A massive 14-game slate is on tap Friday evening at FanDuel's main slate, with only Pirates-Reds not included. The Giants don't have a highlighted starter, but that still gives a whopping 27 pitchers to sort through, nine of whom are priced in our pay up tier of $9,000 or greater.
The Tigers (-350) are hugely favored, followed by the Diamondbacks (-240) before things settle somewhat. Somewhat surprisingly, there are no double-digit run totals across the entire slate, with Athletics-Orioles at 9.5 our highest total. Rays-Mariners is our low point at 7.0 with two additional games coming in at 7.5 runs. Early weather looks dry, with lots of swirling double-digit winds, while we likely see some inbound gusts in Detroit, making that additionally favorable for our top-priced starter.
Pitching
Tarik Skubal, DET vs. LAA ($11,000): Sometimes matchups are too obvious and they don't meet expectations, but I'm likely to do everything in my power to try and afford Skubal Friday. The Angels have an 86 wRC+ against lefties and strike out a whopping 27.7 percent of the time. Skubal has three straight quality starts and five in his last six outings, and earned 43 FanDuel points in an earlier matchup against Los Angeles, right at a 4x return. Perhaps the slate's depth doesn't require this pay up, or perhaps that depth gives us enough hitting depth to facilitate this spend.
Seth Lugo, KC at MIN ($8,600): Lugo's form is poor; he's had just one quality start in his last four while allowing 12 runs and 23 hits across his last 22.1 innings. But that's led to a nice price break heading into a favorable matchup against a Twins offense that sold off at the deadline. They rank 21st with a 99 wRC+ against righties. I'm a little surprised by their 4.9 run expectancy, and Kansas City's 4.0 as well, given the solid arms both sides are throwing, and weather conditions are seemingly favorable for offense. But this could easily evolve into a pitchers duel where we can find value on the cheaper side.
Edward Cabrera, MIA at ATL ($8,200): There are some appealing options in this price range, with Tanner Bibee ($8,300) likely standing out and Drew Rasmussen ($7,700) having a favorable ballpark in Seattle to boost him, though he's limited by inning potential. I'll highlight Cabrera as a likely low-rostered cheaper option. Atlanta's offense had their random blow up last night, and given their season-long inconsistency, a repeat would surprise. Cabrera has consecutive quality starts and four in his last six, going for 31 FanDuel points or more five times. He's a heavy ground ball guy who doesn't give up homers, and given Atlanta's injuries throughout their lineup, they haven't strung together consistent rallies.
Top Targets
Michael McGreevy has allowed 11 runs and 16 hits across his last 10.2 innings, and the Cubs got him for five runs in 4.2 frames in late June. None of the Cubs top bats are in great form, and McGreevy's splits aren't overly targetable, but Kyle Tucker ($4,000) or Pete Crow-Armstrong ($3,900) look like reasonable building blocks.
Arizona doesn't have terrific numbers throughout its lineup against lefties, but we can't fully fade them against Austin Gomber, who's allowing a 396 wOBA and .941 OPS to lefties, and .393/.924 to righties. Corbin Carroll ($4,200) or Ketel Marte ($3,700) are in play and are a collective 16-for-39 (.410) with five homers and four doubles off Gomber.
Jake Irvin has a 5.06 road ERA (4.62 xFIP), and is allowing 2.1 HR/9 to lefties. We've got outbound winds in San Francisco, though it will be cool. Rafael Devers ($3,600) gives us some power potential, but has walked five times in his last four, creating a non-zero floor.
Bargain Bats
There's no semblance of form from Riley Greene ($3,200), he's just 1-for-21 over his last five. Inbound winds don't help, but he still has a .296 ISO, .385 wOBA and 149 wRC+ off righties.
I've rolled with an Orioles stack too often this season, and it hasn't been fruitful. But with the highest run total on the slate and a matchup against J.T. Ginn, who is allowing .432 wOBA and 1.021 OPS to lefties, they're back in play Friday. Gunnar Henderson ($3,500) is a touch pricey, so perhaps one of Jackson Holliday ($3,100), Colton Cowser ($2,900) or Adley Rutschman ($2,800) find their way into your builds.
We never know what to expect from Bryce Elder, who is capable of quality outings. And while Miami has been solid overall, they're not an overly trustworthy offense. But they have some cheap options, highlighted by Xavier Edwards ($2,900). He has six hits in his last two and 14 in his last nine, scoring seven times.
Stacks to Consider
Padres vs. Walker Buehler (Red Sox): Fernando Tatis ($3,700), Manny Machado ($3,700), Jackson Merrill ($3,300)
Buehler has allowed six runs across his last nine innings and has labored all season on the road, allowing a 7.44 ERA, .396 wOBA and .918 OPS to lefties and .426/.998 to righties. And given his prior time with the Dodgers, we've got ample BvP numbers. Tatis is 10-for-32 (.313) with five homers off of him, while Machado is 10-for-31 (.323), though no power and a .723 OPS. Merrill balances the budget some, gives a third top-of-the-order hitter, and while he went 0-for-4 Wednesday, he had previously driven in 11 in seven games.
Brewers vs. Kodai Senga (Mets): Christian Yelich ($3,500), Sal Frelick ($3,100), Isaac Collins ($2,800)
This can be a stack to consider for multi-entry GPPs to build a different lineup. Senga remains a big name, but he's allowed 11 runs, 13 hits and 11 walks across his last three starts, spanning just 12.0 innings. Yelich has nine hits and 10 runs in his last six, and has earned a .371 wOBA, 142 wRC+ and .235 ISO off righties on the year, making for a fine stand alone play. Frelick sits at .342/122/.147 and has 12 hits over his last nine. Collins comes cheap, has a .383/150/.117, so while the power isn't elite, he's got 10 hits over his last five and has hit safely in 15 of his last 17.
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