MLB FAAB Factor: Late-Season Adjustments

This FAAB article is in addition to the AL and NL FAAB articles that run Sunday. Bids are based on a $100 FAAB budget. Throughout the season, this column will have two goals:

1. Identify FAAB targets for fantasy managers in leagues with Thursday FAAB.

2. Offer a preview of FAAB targets ahead of Sunday's columns.

We're really heading into the stretch run now, with the fantasy playoffs beginning in just over a week in many leagues. This is the time of year to start looking at late-September schedules for those lucky enough to know that you've secured a postseason spot.

For major-league clubs, it's either the time of year to start giving looks to new players in preparation for next season or the time of year to make changes at important spots in preparation for the postseason. Both types of player will feature in this week's article.

Starting Pitcher

Bowden Francis, Blue Jays (38%)

Francis didn't make his major-league debut until after his 26th birthday and pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen until just these past few weeks. Through Aug. 4, he owned a respectable 3.86 ERA in 81.2 career innings, but that came with a mediocre at best 4.44 xFIP, so some regression was expected in addition to the normal jump in ERA that comes when a pitcher moves into the rotation. Through three starts since becoming a starter, however, the opposite has happened. He's struck out 22 batters in 19 innings while walking just one, giving up three runs on seven hits. Francis doesn't have the track record to support this type of performance, but he also doesn't have much competition for starts on a Blue Jays team that's out of the race, so he should remain in the rotation even if his numbers take a sizable step back. FAAB: $4

DJ Herz, Nationals (11%)

You might remember Herz from the start in mid-June where he struck out 13 Marlins in six scoreless, one-hit innings. If you picked him up after that start, you might remember that outing in its full context. In Herz's first seven big-league starts, he struck out double-digit batters twice but failed to complete five innings on the other five occasions. On the whole, it was an in-character performance for a pitcher who struck out 33.3 percent of the batters he faced across his minor-league career but also walked 15.4 percent. In his last six outings, however, Hertz has settled into something of a groove. Other than one dud against the Giants in early August, he's consistently lasted at least five innings while walking no more than two batters. On the whole, his 3.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 34:12 K:BB over that stretch makes the 23-year-old lefty an intriguing option down the stretch with far more strikeout upside than you'll typically find for pitchers who are this widely available. FAAB: $3

Cade Povich, Orioles (3%)

Povich is at least a moderately interesting prospect, ranking 191st in our top 400 and producing a 3.48 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 28.2 percent strikeout rate at the Triple-A level this season. He hasn't had the same success in the big leagues, struggling to a 5.77 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and 15.5 percent strikeout rate in nine starts, and as a result, he hasn't been able to hold down a regular rotation spot. His most recent start was one of his best yet, however, as he held the Red Sox to two runs on six hits and no walks in 6.1 innings on Saturday, striking out six. He was optioned immediately after the outing but is back in the majors again and set to start Friday against the Astros. With another good outing, he could make the case to stick in the rotation the rest of the year, with Trevor Rogers' recent demotion opening up the possibility. Povich's struggles could return and he could go right back to Triple-A, but as far as potential landing spots, the opportunity to pitch every fifth day at a pitcher-friendly park for one of the best teams in the league is as good as it gets. FAAB: $3 if he gets past Houston, ignore otherwise. 

Relief Pitcher

Seranthony Dominguez, Orioles (35%)

Craig Kimbrel's last save came on July 7; since then, he's given up 14 runs in 11.1 innings while posting a 12:12 K:BB. Cionel Perez got the team's next save, followed by a pair for Yennier Cano, but over the last two weeks, the only Oriole with a save is Dominguez, who has three since being acquired at the deadline. He sure seems to be the closer at the moment, but the recommended bid here has to be muted, because he's since blown saves in two of the Orioles' last three games and has allowed a homer in three straight appearances. Dominguez does have closing experience from his time with the Phillies but has struggled with inconsistency in recent years, with his latest slump sending his ERA to an uncloser-like 4.40. It could well end up being Cano or Perez who leads the O's in saves in September, but Dominguez remains the top pickup for now. FAAB: $3 

Jorge Lopez, Cubs (18%)
Porter Hodge, Cubs (14%)

The Cubs released Hector Neris last week, yet again opening their closer job up to competition. Lopez got the team's first post-Neris save on Saturday, but Hodge picked one up three days later even though Lopez hadn't pitched on Sunday or Monday, so it's tough to say either of them is clearly in the lead at the moment. The 31-year-old Lopez has past closer experience, as he saved 23 games in 2022 (his first year as a reliever), and he has a 0.83 ERA and 23:7 K:BB in 21.2 innings since signing with the Cubs in mid-June after the Mets let him go. Hodge, on the other hand, is a rookie, but his 2.08 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 31.0 percent strikeout rate in 30.1 innings this season make him look like a potential future closer. It's quite possible neither pitcher earns a true closer role down the stretch, but both are viable option for anyone desperate for saves. FAAB: $2 for both. 

Edwin Uceta, Rays (22%)
Manuel Rodriguez, Rays (2%)
Colin Poche, Rays (5%)

The Rays have gone away from their committee tendencies this year, using Pete Fairbanks as something close to a traditional closer for most of the season. With Fairbanks hitting the injured list due to a lat strain Monday, a return to a committee seems likely. Uceta picked up the save against Oakland on Tuesday, while Rodriguez earned the save Wednesday. Uceta is just 26 years old but is already with his fourth major-league team, though his small-sample numbers this year are quite interesting. In 30 innings, he's recorded a 0.90 ERA and 0.57 WHIP, striking out 36 batters while walking just four. On a team without such a strong committee history, he'd perhaps deserve a bigger bid, but with Rodriguez (whose 1.80 ERA and 1.08 WHIP are also excellent, even if his 24:9 K:BB is pedestrian) already picking up a save as well, it's hard to go overboard. Poche is the team's top lefty and should add two his two saves on the season if the Rays do in fact stick with a strict committee approach, though he has minimal shot of claiming a true closer job. FAAB: $2 for Uceta and Rodriguez, $1 for Poche.

Catcher

Keibert Ruiz, Nationals (29%)

Ruiz is just 26 years old and isn't far removed from being one of the top prospects in baseball, good enough to headline a trade that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers at the 2021 deadline. His fantasy appeal has mostly been limited to two-catcher leagues at the start of his major-league career, however, and when he hit just .203/.243/.295 with just four home runs through the first three months of this season, it evaporated almost entirely. That awful start means his season-long numbers remain poor, but he's been a much better hitter since the start of July, slashing .268/.289/.478 and adding eight homers. That on-base percentage remains quite poor and drags down his value in some formats, but his 5.6 percent strikeout rate over that sample is truly elite and should lead to a strong batting average going forward. FAAB: $2

First Baseman

Spencer Torkelson, Tigers (37%)

Torkelson was the first overall pick in the 2020 draft and is just 24 years old, so patience is recommended. Then again, he's been a well below average hitter for most of his big-league career, and what seemed to be signs of life in the second half of last season (19 homers and a .238/.318/.498 slash line, good for a 122 wRC+) evaporated quickly this year, as he was sent back to the minors at the start of June after slashing .201/.266/.330 with just four homers through 54 games. He didn't exactly kill it in the minors, posting a 107 wRC+ in 58 games for Triple-A Toledo while his strikeout rate jumped to 30.9 percent, but he's back for another opportunity with the Tigers effectively out of the playoff picture. Six hits in his first three games makes for an encouraging start, but keep expectations muted for now and consider Torkelson only in spots where anyone with everyday playing time will be a useful addition. FAAB: $1

Second Baseman

Gavin Lux, Dodgers (57%)

Lux was one of the best prospects in baseball prior to his debut in 2019, but through the end of the 2022 season he'd hit just .253/.329/.383 (good for a 98 wRC+) with a fantasy-unfriendly 11 homers and eight steals per 600 plate appearances. He then missed all of 2023 due to a torn ACL and hit .213/.267/.295 with three homers and three steals in the first half of 2024, so if you'd written him off entirely, it was understandable. Lux altered his approach over the All-Star break, however, and he's returned as a much more aggressive and much more effective hitter. His strikeout rate jumped from 20.6 percent in the first half to 25.4 percent in the second, but his barrel rate has also jumped from 3.5 percent to 12.3 percent. Could trading contact for power be what finally unlocks Lux? Given how much prospect pedigree he had prior to his debut and the fact that he's still just 26, it's worth trying to find out. FAAB: $4 

Connor Norby, Marlins (4%)

The trade which sent Norby and Kyle Stowers from Baltimore to Miami at the deadline in exchange for Trevor Rogers initially seemed like a boost to Norby's fantasy value, as he found himself in a new organization for less competition for at-bats, but he was optioned as soon as he got to his new club. Three weeks later, he's earned a return to the big leagues, and it looks like he'll be the team's primary third baseman down the stretch (which should give him additional positional flexibility in your fantasy league). Norby isn't an elite prospect, but he's a fairly good one (ranked 90th in our Top 400) with the potential to chip in across all five categories, though the fact that his strikeout rate jumped from the low twenties at previous stops to the high twenties this year raises concerns about his ability to make contact against high-level pitching. FAAB: $2

Third Baseman

Jace Jung, Tigers (6%)

The Tigers' decision to look to the future saw them not only recall Torkelson (discussed above) but also give a first taste of MLB action to Jung and his teammate Trey Sweeney (more on him in a minute). Jung may well be the most exciting of the three, as unlike Sweeney, he seems to have a full-time job, and unlike Torkelson, he's never failed at the big-league level before. Four hits in his first six games and a 34.8 percent strikeout rate doesn't make for the most encouraging start for Jung, but the fact that the Tigers cut Gio Urshela to make room for him and have had him in the lineup everyday since his arrival bodes well for his playing time down the stretch. Invest for that playing time and the counting stats that should come with it, and consider anything beyond that a bonus, as while Jung has some prospect pedigree (ranking 80th on our top 400), he was more good than great at Triple-A slashing .257/.377/.454 with 14 homers in 91 games. It's more likely he's an interesting sleeper for next season than a league-winner down the stretch this year. FAAB: $2

Shay Whitcomb, Astros (3%)

Whitcomb earned a call-up last week with Alex Bregman's elbow issues initially keeping him out of the lineup and then limiting him to a DH role. The fact that Whitcomb could lose his roster spot as soon as Bregman is able to throw again keeps his fantasy appeal limited, but there's a non-zero chance he remains in the lineup after that as a potential solution to the Astros' gaping hole at first base, which has recently been filled by catcher Yainer Diaz (with backup catcher Victor Caratini earning more playing time as a result). Whitcomb hasn't done much of note for good or bad through his first five games, going 4-for-15 with three walks, but his minor-league numbers suggest some fantasy upside. He struck out 31.0 percent of the time across his first the minor-league seasons but cut that mark to 19.8 percent this season while adding 25 homers and 26 steals in 108 games. Then again, that was as a 25-year-old in his second stint at the Triple-A level, so we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. FAAB: $1

Shortstop

Trey Sweeney, Tigers (1%)

Sweeney joins his teammates Torkelson and Jung in this week's write-up, but he's seemingly the least interesting. Acquired from the Dodgers as part of the return for rental starter Jack Flaherty, Sweeney is not a top-400 prospect and didn't particularly impress at the Triple-A level, slashing .267/.345/.450 (good for a 97 WRC+) in 107 games between the two organizations. His 15 homers and 20 steals do hint at some categorical upside for fantasy leagues, but he'll need to get in the lineup on a regular basis to make the most of that. So far, he's sitting in favor of Javier Baez against all lefties and some righties as well. FAAB: $1 

Outfield 

Tommy Edman, Dodgers (46%)

Edman didn't make his season debut until Monday, with recovery from October wrist surgery taking several months longer than anticipated. Now that he's back, though, there's little reason for his rostership rate to be anywhere near this low. The Dodgers seemingly have minimal concern about his health, as they chose to acquire him at the deadline and have installed him in the lineup for three straight games since his return. He's started at both center field and shortstop and should be eligible at multiple positions in your fantasy league, furthering his appeal. Edman hit .259 with an average of 12 homers and 30 steals over his last three seasons, so he should help out pretty much any team except those desperate for power and nothing else. FAAB: $5

Michael Toglia, Rockies (32%)

Toglia slashed .187/.246/.325 in 76 games prior to this season, even while calling Coors Field home, and followed that up by slashing .106/.143/.362 in his first 15 games this season, earning himself a demotion before the end of April. Ever since his return in early June, however, he's been a different player. He's homered 16 times in 66 games while slashing .240/.330/.515. He's even added six steals. Contact has been a concern for Toglia throughout his career, but he's kept his strikeout rate just under 30 percent (29.5) over this recent run, and that's been enough to let his power do the talking. There's still plenty of risk to his profile, but he's riding a 15-game on-base streak in which he's posted a .905 OPS and will get to finish the year with four home series in his last five, which makes him a great pickup for those looking to ride the hot hand in their fantasy playoffs. FAAB: $2