This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: MLB Picks and Props for Wednesday, September 25
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2024 Regular Season Betting Record: 15-11 (+2.80 RW Bucks)
2024 Regular Season Props Betting Record: 34-32 (+5.15 RW Bucks)
As the regular season nears its final days, I'm focusing on a National League evening battle between the Cubs and a left-hander they've already given plenty of trouble to once this season.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Best Bets
The Cubs have been eliminated from postseason contention but are closing the book on a solid season overall, one that sees them carrying an 81-77 record and +69 run differential going into Wednesday's evening matchup. Chicago offered a glimpse of its offensive firepower Tuesday, when they walloped Philadelphia, which has already clinched the National League East by a 10-4 score on the strength of a 15-hit barrage.
The Cubs did see Seiya Suzuki exit the game with an ankle sprain that will very likely keep him out Wednesday, but I still have a bright outlook for the Cubbies' prospects Wednesday. Philadelphia could still finish with the best record in the National League over the Dodgers, so the motivation remains on their end. With southpaw Cristopher Sanchez (11-9, 3.25 ERA) on the hill for the hosts, we are getting very good prices on any bets that back any form of Cubs success.
Yet, there's reason to believe there could be some sneaky value in this scenario. To begin with, Sanchez has pitched to plenty of contact, allowing a hit per inning this season. He has done a good job keeping the ball in the park, but he has a middling 20.4 percent strikeout rate and was already knocked around for seven runs on seven hits over four innings at Wrigley back on the 4th of July.
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Sanchez has been at his best by far at home (7-3, 2.05 ERA, 0.96 WHIP), yet he's facing a Cubs squad that has been unforgiving against left-handers on the road during the second half of the season. Chicago has posted a .321 average, .840 OPS, .359 wOBA and +14.0 wRAA in that split, along with a modest 19.7 percent strikeout rate. Current Cubs bats have a collective .412 average and 1.289 OPS against Sanchez over 21 combined plate appearances as well.
Chicago has nothing left to play for except the motivation of spoiling the Phillies' aspirations of improving postseason positioning, so they should be loose and riding the momentum of yesterday's 10-run barrage. They also have a solid starter in their own right in Javier Assad taking the hill, so I don't mind backing bets that involve the Cubs both being ahead after five innings and winning the game outright. Additionally, with Dansby Swanson slashing .327/.365/.510 across his last 11 games and sporting a .339 average and .418 wOBA against lefties on the road this season, I like a bet on the over on his total bases prop at a very appealing price as well.
MLB Best Bets for Phillies VS. Cubs
- Cubs Moneyline (+170 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Cubs Moneyline - F5 (+152 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Dansby Swanson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
