This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Baseball series.
Let's end the weekend on a high note! There are 14 MLB games on the DFS slate for Sunday, with a first pitch at 1:35 p.m. ET. Looking to win a little dough to take you into your work week? Here are my recommendations for your DFS lineups.
Pitching
Bailey Ober, MIN vs. CWS ($46): Every season of Ober's career, he's lowered his ERA. This year he has a 2.74 ERA through 15 starts, with a 5.2 walk percentage that shows his control. Ober doesn't walk anybody, and the White Sox have a sub-.300 OBP, so I don't expect to see many White Sox hitters on base.
Aaron Nola, PHI at CLE ($45): Yes, Nola has a 4.27 ERA, but he's held lefties to a .218 average and righties to a .227 average. His issue is that he's allowed a fair amount of home runs. Cleveland is in the bottom eight in runs scored, though, and the primary reason is the fact that they sit last in home runs.
Hunter Brown, HOU at OAK ($43): Brown is tentatively slated for a start in Oakland on Sunday, but if he's good to go I imagine the Astros will be happy with the schedule shaking out this way. One, Brown has a 4.89 ERA at home, but a 3.79 ERA on the road. Two, you know, it's the Athletics. They have the worst offense in baseball. They're last in runs scored. As a team, they have a .356 slugging percentage. It's bleak in Oakland.
Top Targets
After having 30 home runs and 25 stolen bases in 2022, Kyle Tucker ($27) has 17 homers and 17 swiped bags this year. He's been bolstered by a strong performance on the road, where he has a .999 OPS. Rookie Luis Medina has a 5.79 ERA. While he has a 4.41 ERA at home, that's still not good, and he has allowed 1.7 home runs per nine innings in Oakland.
He's shown the bulk of his power this season at the Home Run Derby, but Vladimir Guerrero ($17) does have 16 home runs, to go with a .272 average. Notably, his power outage has been at home, as he's slugged .490 on the road. Bryan Woo is coming off his worst start in MLB, moving the rookie's ERA up to 4.74. He's also allowed 1.42 home runs per nine innings.
Bargain Bats
Max Kepler ($15) has made limited contact, but he does have 14 homers in 73 games. He can't hit lefties, but he has slugged .457 versus righties this year. Lucas Giolito has a 3.96 ERA, but a 4.55 FIP. In particular, he has a 5.74 ERA on the road, where he's allowed 2.0 home runs per nine innings.
Right now, Anthony Rizzo ($8) is slumping bad. This is a bet on him turning it around. The lefty is much better at home, where he has a .834 OPS since 2021. Jordan Lyles has a career 5.17 ERA, which is bad enough as is, but he has a 6.05 ERA with the Royals. He has a 7.36 ERA on the road, which is even better for Rizzo. Since 2021, Lyles has allowed lefties to hit .267 against him, another point in the favor of the Yankee southpaw.
Stacks to Consider
Red Sox vs. Mets (Carlos Carrasco): Rafael Devers ($22), Masataka Yoshida ($19), Alex Verdugo ($12)
Carrasco's time with the Mets has gone poorly, but this is his worst season yet. He has a 5.94 FIP, has allowed 1.78 home runs per nine innings, and has struck out a mere 6.58 batters per nine for good measure. The Red Sox have a trio of lefties who love Fenway Park, and I bet they'll enjoy this matchup with Carrasco.
Devers, who has 23 home runs, has been better against lefties and on the road this year, but that's not the norm. Well, the homers are. However, since 2021 he has a .919 OPS versus righties and an .886 OPS at home. In his first season in MLB, Yoshida has slashed .319/.381/.501 with 11 homers and eight stolen bases. He picked his MLB team well, as he has a .928 OPS in home games. A career .285 hitter, Verdugo has seven homers, but also four triples. He's got sizable splits in multiple ways, but in this instance it's all good, as he has an .857 OPS against righties and a .936 OPS at home.
Diamondbacks at Reds (Luke Weaver): Ketel Marte ($24), Geraldo Perdomo ($15), Lourdes Gurriel ($14)
Weaver, a former Diamondback, is back to being in a starting rotation, and it's gone brutally. He has a 7.22 ERA and has allowed 2.25 home runs per nine innings. All three of these guys can hit right handed, which is wise for this stack. Since 2021, Weaver has allowed righties to hit .297 against him, and this year that is up to .349.
Marte has slashed .287/.362/.514 with 17 homers, six triples, and six stolen bases. He has a .909 OPS on the road as well. Perdomo has a .385 OBP with five homers and 11 stolen bases. Notably, he has an .808 OPS versus righties — he's a switch hitter with a distinct preference — and he has a .952 OPS in away games as well. Gurriel has slowed down, but he has 15 homers on the year. He's also a career .281 hitter. Since he's a righty, and since Weaver is bad against righties, I'll stick Gurriel in a stack.
Cardinals at Cubs (Jameson Taillon): Nolan Arenado ($22), Brendan Donovan ($18), Lars Nootbaar ($12)
In his first season with the Cubs, Taillon has struggled quite a bit. He has a 6.03 ERA, including a 7.06 ERA at home. At Wrigley Field he's allowed 1.9 home runs per nine innings as well. I've thrown two lefties into this stack, as southpaws have hit .290 against Taillon in 2023.
Arenado has hit .286, and he's on pace for his third 30-homer, 100-RBI season in a row. He's been hot recently as well, as he's posted an 1.079 OPS over the last three weeks. A second baseman with a keen batting eye, Donovan has a career .385 OBP. His power has picked up, as he has 11 homers. Primarily, Donovan's numbers have improved because of his performance against righties, who he has an .850 OPS against. Nootbaar doesn't have much power, but he has a .364 OBP with seven homers and seven stolen bases. The southpaw has a .780 OPS against righties, and in his career he has an .883 OPS on the road.
