This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Baseball series.
Sunday is great for baseball. This week, we have 15 games; the first starts at 12:05 p.m. ET, the last at 7:05 p.m. ET, and there's plenty of baseball in between. For DFS purposes, the focus is on the 14 games aside from that noon-ish start. That means a first pitch of 1:30 p.m. ET. Looking for some lineup help? Look no further!
Pitching
Corbin Burnes, MIL vs. BOS ($48): I see a Cy Young winner with a career 2.85 FIP and 11.49 K/9 who has a 4.75 FIP and 6.75 K/9 through four starts, and I figure one of two things has to be true. Either something is very wrong — and Burnes' last two starts have been better, so that doesn't seem like the likely answer — or you'll never be able to buy this low on him again this season. The Red Sox aren't an easy matchup, but I am not running from Burnes on Sunday.
Jesus Luzardo, MIA at CLE ($43): It took him a little time to get his footing, but when all was said and done, Luzardo had a 3.12 FIP in 18 starts in 2022. This year he has a 2.82 FIP through four starts, and once again he's striking out double-digit batters per nine innings. Cleveland's offense lacks power, though Luzardo suppresses home runs anyway. Also, the former Athletic is a southpaw, and Cleveland has a few key lefty batters.
Grayson Rodriguez, BAL vs. DET ($41): Rodriguez made his MLB debut as one of baseball's top pitching prospects. It's been…a mixed bag so far. Through three starts, he has a 6.91 ERA but a 3.97 FIP. The hurler has struck out 11.93 batters per nine innings, but he's been giving up hits left and right as well. With this matchup, though, I figured Rodriguez and his talent was worth a shot. Detroit finished last in runs scored last year and is battling Kansas City for the worst offense this season.
Top Targets
Considering that he had at least 20 homers and 20 stolen bases in each of his last two seasons, it's no surprise that Randy Arozarena ($18) has five homers and three swiped bags to start 2023. What is notable, though, is that he's also posted a .350 average. Lucas Giolito has a career 4.33 ERA, and the fact he allows a lot of contact has played into that. Since 2021, righties have hit .266 against him.
Sure, Willy Adames ($18) had a sub-.300 OBP last year, but he hit 31 homers and 31 doubles from the shortstop position, so DFS players were ready to forgive that. He has four home runs (and two stolen bases) to start 2023, but also a .360 OBP. Brayan Bello has a career 5.25 ERA and has allowed righties to hit .336 against him.
Bargain Bats
When Jorge Soler ($16) gets in a homer-hitting groove, we've seen what he can do. Don't forget, he hit 48 homers with the Royals in 2019, and even last year with the Marlins he hit 13 home runs in only 72 games. The Cuban has five homers this season, and since 2021 he has an .871 OPS versus lefties. Cleveland will be giving Logan Allen his first MLB start Sunday. Maybe he'll be good, but he's a lefty, and that plays into Soler's strength and power profile.
Last year was a lost season for Brandon Belt ($11), though he still managed a .702 OPS and seven homers in 216 plate appearances against righties. In 2021, though, the lefty had an 1.008 OPS when facing right-handed pitchers. The righty Clarke Schmidt has an 8.79 ERA through four starts in 2023 and has allowed lefties to hit .333 against him since 2021.
Stacks to Consider
Twins vs. Nationals (Patrick Corbin): Byron Buxton ($19), Carlos Correa ($17), Jose Miranda ($12)
Rarely do I resist the allure of stacking against Corbin, but this is no siren song. He has a 6.06 ERA over the last three seasons. In that same time frame, righties have hit .313 against him. Corbin allows a fair amount of home runs, and this year the lefty has a mere 13.5 percent strikeout rate. I wish the Twins' offense was on better footing right now, but this matchup is still too good to avoid.
Buxton struggles to stay healthy, but over the last three seasons he's played 172 games, a smidge over a full season. In that time he's slugged .559 with 50 homers and 15 stolen bases while posting a .905 OPS against lefties. Correa got on base four times Saturday, which is encouraging given his slow start. Last year he had a .945 OPS against southpaws and an .880 OPS at home, so maybe this matchup is exactly what he needs. As a rookie, Miranda hit .265 with 15 home runs and 25 doubles. That includes an .821 OPS against southpaws.
Reds at Pirates (Vince Velasquez): Jonathan India ($17), TJ Friedl ($14), Jake Fraley ($12)
Velasquez is in his first season as a Pirate and has a 5.12 ERA through four starts. That tracks. In his career, which stretches back to 2015, he has a 4.94 ERA, not to mention a 4.49 FIP. There's a reason why Velasquez is on his fifth team and, well, pitching for Pittsburgh. I have two lefties in my stack, as southpaws have hit .265 against Velasquez since 2021.
India is looking more like how he did as a rookie when he posted an .835 OPS with 21 homers and 12 stolen bases. He's slashed .307/.407/.440 with one home run and four stolen bases so far this year. The lefty Friedl had eight homers and seven swiped bags last year, and this year he's slashed .306/.367/.472 with two homers. He owns an .853 OPS versus right-handed pitchers this season. Since 2021, Fraley has an .828 OPS against righties. Last year, his first with the Reds, he slashed .259/.344/.468 with 12 homers and four stolen bases in 68 games.
Mets at Giants (Ross Stripling): Pete Alonso ($23), Brandon Nimmo ($21), Daniel Vogelbach ($12)
Stripling had a surprisingly good 2022, but he also had unusually good fortune with not allowing home runs. Last year he only allowed 0.80 homers per nine after allowing over two the prior two seasons. This year? He's allowed 4.38 home runs per nine, a big reason why he has an 8.77 FIP.
If you want home runs, you turn to Alonso. He has 10 homers already after having 40 last season. Additionally, since 2021 Stripling has allowed righties to hit .255 against him. Nimmo is off to a hot start, having slashed .368/.479/.526. He also prefers to be away from the Big Apple, posting an .881 OPS on the road since 2021. Vogelbach can't hit lefties, but he shows real power against righties. He's put up an .847 OPS against right-handed pitchers since 2021, and last year all 18 of his homers came in those matchups.
