This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A massive 14-game main slate awaits Friday evening at FanDuel, with only Mets-Pirates omitted. That's an obscene 28 arms to sort through and target against, and will inevitably lead to a plethora of different lineups. Only eight of those arms are priced at $9,000 or greater.
No game has a double-digit run total, with Dodgers-Royals our high spot at 9.5. Rangers-Mariners is our low spot at 7.5 runs, and the rest of the slate is tightly packed in the 8.0-9.0 range. The Yankees (-220) and Brewers (-198) are the slate's biggest favorites. Weather does not appear to be a factor Friday; we're largely dry, hot and negligible outbound winds across the slate.
Pitching
Merrill Kelly, ARI vs. MIA ($9,900): While I have some editorial discretion, this column's format usually says three arms to highlight, which just isn't fair when we're sorting through 28 options. At the top price points, it's as much about mitigating risk as it is chasing upside. Kelly has fanned at least six in nine straight, earning six quality starts. He's got the softest matchup of the top five priced arms, with Miami producing a 96 wRC+, .313 wOBA and .138 ISO against righties, striking out a a middling 21.4 percent rate.
Jose Berrios, TOR at BOS ($9,100): I expect Will Warren ($8,800) to be popular in this price range against an Athletics' team that's been shut out in two of their last four. Perhaps that means we can get low roster percentages from Berrios, who's faced the Red Sox twice this season and has given up three runs across 13.2 innings, striking out 10 and earning two quality starts. Berrios has six quality starts across his last seven, and the Red Sox enter Friday with a 95 wRC+ and 24.3 percent K rate off righties.
Jake Irvin, WSH at LAA ($7,500): Popular pay-down options will surely include Jose Quintana ($8,100) and Landen Roupp ($8,300), but I'll back Irvin at a lower price tag in a juicy matchup against strikeout prone Anaheim, who fan 26.3 percent of the time against righties. Irvin's form is a bit erratic, and the Nationals are reasonably heavy underdogs, so we're banking on the elevated strikeout totals. But even a three-times return at this reduced price works if we hit on our offensive selections.
Top Targets
Ketel Marte ($4,000) has rapidly become one of my favorite players on a team I don't root for. He has five multihit games in his last seven, homering three times. Miami starter Eury Perez has been more vulnerable to right-handed hitters, but Marte has proven to be largely matchup proof, and is up against a pitcher who carries a 6.17 ERA and 5.00 xFIP despite not having allowed a homer to date.
Philadelphia's Mick Abel is allowing 2.7 HR/9, a .406 wOBA and .963 OPS to lefties. Matt Olson ($3,600) has a 25-game on-base streak and is likely due a big fly, having not homered since June 18.
Kyle Freeland had some decent form preinjury, and his splits on the road are sound as well. But Jackson Chourio ($3,400) is priced too low for his splits off lefties, where he has a .414 wOBA, 167 wRC+ and .242 ISO.
Bargain Bats
Twins-Tigers could offer an under-the-radar game-stacking opportunity. Minnesota will throw David Festa, who has allowed 20 runs in his last four starts, spanning 18.0 innings, allowing a .433 wOBA and 1.015 OPS to lefties and a .396/.920 to righties. Zach McKinstry ($2,700) and Parker Meadows ($2,700) are intriguing for their price. Detroit counters with Sawyer Gipson-Long, who is allowing a .431 wOBA and 1.027 OPS to righties. Ty France ($2,900) continues to drive in runs, while Carlos Correa ($2,800) has 10 hits in his last six games.
The entire Red Sox lineup is 21-for-93 (.226) off Berrios, and that includes Jarren Duran ($3,100), who is 10-for-21 (.476) with with three homers. He's slumping, and thus cheap, and a fine BvP option.
Bryce Elder has somehow handled the Phillies' top bats, as their current roster is just 10-for-40 (.250) off him, and nine of those hits have come from Nick Castellanos ($2,800), Alec Bohm ($2,700) and Brandon Marsh ($2,500). Castellanos' three hits have all left the yard. If you're a BvP guy, there's ample value here, and we know Elder won't go without some blemishes.
Stacks to Consider
Yankees vs. Mitch Spence (Athletics): Jazz Chisholm ($3,400), Trent Grisham ($3,300), Cody Bellinger ($3,200)
Spence has been far worse at home, but we can still stack a top offense for a relatively cheap Friday by targeting the .383 wOBA and .884 OPS allowed to lefties. Chisholm is a terrific individual play with 11 hits in his last eight games. Grisham has returned to the leadoff spot, and is wildly feast or famine, going hitless in three of his last six but collecting nine hits in his other three. Bellinger gives us a third lefty in the heart of the Yankees lineup, and has 11 hits in his last seven, and is 3-for-4 against Spence.
Cubs at Brandon Walter (Astros): Kyle Tucker ($4,400), Seiya Suzuki ($3,500), Nico Hoerner ($2,800)
Walter doesn't have enough innings under his belt to consider splits, but he's off an outing where he allowed seven runs to the Angels across six innings, and despite a high ground ball rate (52.9 percent), he's allowing 1.5 HR/9. Who doesn't love a revenge narrative with Tucker returning to Houston to face his former team. And he's crushed lefties all season to the tune of a .390 wOBA, 154 wRC+ and .255 ISO. Suzuki has been better, sitting at .443/190/.359. Hoerner doesn't make for a traditional lineup stack, but he offers some salary relief and has a .401/161/.185 slash against southpaws and has hit safely in 11 of 12.
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