This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Twelve games await on Tuesday evening's main slate. Pitching is plentiful, with five arms priced in five figures and five more sitting in the $9k tier. Boston and Texas don't currently have listed arms, shortening our options.
Weather looks largely clear, and it's hot across most of the country, which could provide some additional carry. Early lines Monday night aren't popping, but run totals suggest offense will be a challenge, and pitching is the dominant factor.
Pitching
Blake Snell, SD vs. PIT ($11,000): If we accept that we're paying up for an arm, I believe I'm willing to go all the way up for Snell. His game logs of late don't show upside to match this salary, and that's a matter of the inefficiency that has always been his plague. He's limited damage though, having allowed just five total earned runs in his last 11 starts. He's fanned at least seven in nine of those outings, and here he gets a Pirates offense he posted 46 FDP against previously, and one that comes with a 23.6 percent K rate and 96 wRC+ against lefties.
Justin Verlander, NYM at NYY ($9,600): With 26 strikeouts and just five runs allowed across his last five start, spanning 31 innings, Verlander looks to be righting himself. The K rate isn't elite, and it may not play up here against a Yankees offense that for all of its struggles is only whiffing 22.3 percent of the time, but it's a lineup that doesn't scare anyone and comes with a .303 wOBA and 93 wRC+ against righties overall. Verlander posted six innings of one-run ball against them prior to this solid run, earning 37 FDP, which is enough at this price to combat the more expensive pitchers.
Kyle Hendricks, CHC at CWS ($8,300): In all honesty, I have interest in both pitchers in Chicago, but Michael Kopech has been far more erratic, leaving me with Hendricks as a hopefully stable paydown. He's coming off his fourth quality start in six outings but did allow nine earned runs in the two poor showings. The White Sox are far worse offensively against righties than lefties however, lending confidence. They sit with a .293 wOBA, ranking 27th, while adding an 85 wRC+ and 23.6 percent K rate. Strikeouts aren't really Hendricks game, so we're looking for innings and little damage.
Top Targets
Toronto starter Chris Bassitt has a 5.80 road ERA (4.72 xFIP) against a 2.24 mark at home, and lefties are pummeling him for a .480 wOBA and 1.162 OPS. Freddie Freeman ($4,500) has 15 hits in his last seven and makes all the sense in the world here. Max Muncy ($3,900) can be a GPP pivot if you're willing to go feast or famine. He's currently feasting with homers in three straight games and four of five.
Lane Thomas ($3,700) seems out of place in this salary range when looking at the names around him, and even moreso given that he's uncertain to play after being beaned Monday night. He's homered in three straight games and four of five though, and is absolutely crushing lefties, such as Austin Gomber, to the tune of a .452 wOBA, 187 wRC+ and .288 ISO. If Thomas is in the Nats' lineup, he should be in yours too.
Austin Riley ($3,900) is coming off an 0-for-4 performance, snapping a five-game home run streak. He seems to have his launch angle working and is the most modestly priced Atlanta bat in the top part of the team's order, with three teammates checking in with salaries north of this figure.
Bargain Bats
We likely want shares of the Diamondbacks offense against Steven Matz, but they are also lefty/switch-hit heavy and don't have terrific splits against southpaws as a result. I don't personally trust Evan Longoria ($2,700), but he offers a .377 wOBA and .296 ISO in this spot, while being a cheap, low-risk in to the offense.
J.P. Crawford ($2,800) has multiple hits in four of his last six, which includes the last time he faced Twins starter Pablo Lopez just five days ago. Crawford doesn't do much with those hits, so he's not a slate breaker, but he's a reasonable piece to round out a lineup. Lopez doesn't have hugely targetable splits, though his .323 wOBA allowed to lefties at home is his worst mark.
Rostering bats against Zack Greinke is usually advisable, and the easy path is to click on Jose Ramirez and move on. Ramirez is just 4-for-17 (.235) with a .594 OPS off Greinke in his career, however. Perhaps the path less travelled is Josh Naylor ($3,500), who is second on the Guardians with a .368 wOBA and 137 wRC+ off righties. The sample sizes are small, but if you're a BvP guy needing more value, Myles Straw ($2,400) and Will Brennan ($2,300) are a combined 11-for-18 off the Royals' starter.
Stacks to Consider
Padres vs. Rich Hill: Fernando Tatis ($4,100), Manny Machado ($3,800), Ha-Seong Kim ($2,900)
The Padres' lineup overall rakes against lefties, which is going to make them incredibly popular. As such, I don't hate taking just one of Machado or Tatis and differentiating, but Kim's presence atop the lineup with a nice low salary makes this a stackable opportunity, even if it has high usage. Tatis has a .442 wOBA, 185 wRC+ and .321 ISO off southpaws. Machado sits at .386/148/.195, and is 5-of-12 (.417) with two homers and a 1.545 OPS off Hill. Kim has two hits in three tries off Hill, and boasts a .398 wOBA, 156 wRC+ and .248 ISO off lefties.
Blue Jays vs. Julio Urias: Vladimir Guerrero ($3,600), Bo Bichette ($3,200), Matt Chapman ($3,000)
Urias has been far better at home, but that doesn't mean we can't consider how uneven he's been to date. Toronto has positive splits against lefties and this stack is priced favorably, allowing us to pair them with a top arm. Bichette is paramount here; he's hitless in his last 17 at-bats, but his overall .418 wOBA, 173 wRC+ and .221 ISO suggest a hot streak is overdue. Guerrero has homered in two straight games and three of four, and sits at .356/129/.037 off lefties. That ISO is atrocious, but it comes with a decent 40.4 percent hard hit rate and should improve. Chapman gives us a third run-producing option. He's hit safely in seven of his last 10 and comes with a massive 68.2 percent hard hit rate off lefties, to go with a .408 wOBA and 165 wRC+.
