This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Change has come to the MLB schedule on Sunday as the Guardians moved their start against the Astros up to 12:40 p.m. EDT, so you'll have to get your lineups in an hour earlier. With 10 games on the docket, here are my recommendations.
Pitching
Kevin Gausman, TOR vs. MIN ($11,400): Chaos has reigned in the Blue Jays rotation, though Gausman has been awesome through 13 starts with a 2.28 FIP while striking out 12.40 batters per nine innings and a sterling 1.65 home ERA. The Twins are banged up and below average in terms of runs scored, so Gausman should keep his Cy Young-caliber campaign going.
Freddy Peralta, MIL vs. OAK ($10,200): Peralta's home runs allowed are up, but mostly on the road. At home, he's posted a 3.41 ERA while only giving up 1.0 homers per nine innings. The Oakland bats have sent a decent number deep, but still rank 29th in offense and team OPS.
Braxton Garrett, MIA at CWS ($8,900): Garrett endured one brutal start, one so bad that it significantly skewed his numbers. He boasted a 2.45 ERA before that appearance, but that mark has jumped to 3.38 since. The White Sox carry a sub-.300 team OBP, so I don't think Sunday will be Garrett's second awful outing this year.
Top Targets
While Matt Olson ($4,000) has seen his numbers drop, it's due to him unusually struggling against fellow lefties. When a righty is on the mound, he's recorded a .938 OPS in 2023 with 15 of his 17 homers coming in those matchups. Trevor Williams has allowed 1.78 home runs per nine innings and has also allowed southpaws to hit .286 against since 2021.
It feels like J.D. Martinez ($4,000) has found new life with the Dodgers, but in truth his only issue in 2022 was a dip in power. He still hit .274, in line with his .275 this year. The difference is that Martinez has already tied his 16 homers from last season. Taijuan Walker has let righties go .273 against while giving up a career 1.23 home runs per nine innings. He's excelled with a 2.67 home ERA (compared to a 6.75 on the road), though his last two home starts were against the weak Tigers and Cubs.
Bargain Bats
He's quite young and hasn't put it all together in the majors, yet Jordan Walker ($3,000) is still a top prospect and his calling card among the scouting sorts was his raw power. He's only really showed his potential against righties so far with an .804 OPS. Hunter Greene, once a vaunted phenom, strikes out a lot of batters out but has posted a 3.92 ERA and righties have hit .283 against. If Walker can get just one Greene fastball, it could be headed out of the park.
Nick Pratto ($2,900) is coming off a tough outing, though he's still slashed .289/.378/.444. I'll still take the southpaw against Kyle Gibson. While Gibson has managed to drop his ERA from 5.05 to 3.87 this year, he's been pummeled by lefties as they've gone .309 against.
Stacks to Consider
Rays vs. Rangers (Martin Perez): Wander Franco ($4,100), Randy Arozarena ($3,900), Yandy Diaz ($3,800)
Baseball's two best offenses close out their series Sunday. The Rangers draw Shane McClanahan, which is tough, while the Rays get to face Perez. His return to Texas went great in 2022, but this year he's looking like the pitcher with a career 4.41 ERA with a 4.71 FIP and 5.53 home ERA. While lefties have batted .341 against the southpaw, the sample size is 44 batters and his track record has been better than that. However, righties have gone .275 against Perez and .270 against since 2021.
It will be harder for Franco to add to his 22 stolen bases against a lefty, though his power should make up for it boasting a career .937 OPS versus southpaws. Arozarena is getting on base at an elite rate with a .407 OBP. And over the last couple campaigns, he's registered a .939 OPS against lefties and an .868 at home. Diaz is enjoying his best season as a hitter by slashing .309/.403/.549. The righty has also produced a career .376 OBP, ideal for a leadoff hitter in a formidable lineup.
Blue Jays vs. Twins (Louie Varland): Vladimir Guerrero ($3,500), George Springer ($3,200), Matt Chapman ($3,100)
Varland made five appearances in 2022, and they didn't go well as he posted a 4.30 FIP and allowed 1.38 home runs per nine innings. This year, he's made eight starts and they've gone even worse with a 5.27 FIP while giving up 2.11 HR/9. Varland has been worse against fellow righties than against lefties, but the Jays don't really have any notable lefty bats - especially with Daulton Varsho struggling at home - so that doesn't really complicate matters.
Guerrero has slugged .539 against righties since 2021, so this matchup plays to his strengths. He's been terrible at home in 2023, but I still like him since he's managed a .928 OPS at home the last three seasons. Springer has recently performed better and bumped his average up to .255 to go with nine homers and 10 steals. And since joining Toronto, he has an .876 OPS at home. Chapman has hit 27 home runs in each of his last two years, even though he's currently only at eight. He's already accumulated 23 doubles after 27 last season and 15 in 2021. Chapman's barrel percentage and exit velocity are both up while his launch angle is down, so maybe some of those doubles turn into homers (though doubles are also nice).
