This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
An earlier than usual nine-game main slate awaits us Saturday afternoon, with all games starting between 4:05 and 4:10 p.m. EDT. Weather could be a major player, as the northeast looks wet with the potential for more bad weather elsewhere, so you will either need to avoid Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and New York, or be available to quickly pivot if necessary. Delays seem likely, washouts perhaps not as much with the potential to play in the evening. Three of the top pitchers are slated to go in these games, but should only be avoided if we hear of a postponment, as I dont believe they'll start and stop. Currently, only two games have run totals at eight or less, with the remaining seven sitting at 8.5 or greater, though nothing is in the 10 run range, so we're expecting a rather balanced Saturday on the bump and with offenses.
Pitching
Hunter Brown, HOU vs. OAK ($9,600): Brown figures to be one of the most popular targets Saturday with the very exploitable matchup against Oakland, who we'll target most nights even with a mediocre pitcher throwing against them. Brown isn't that, but he hasn't been particularly sharp of late, failing to throw five innings in three of his last five. He still misses enough bats (9.4 K/9), and his recent lack of dominance has pushed the price down to where 33 FDP is a 3.5x return. The only issue with Brown is he's an obvious play, so there's likely minimal advantage to using him as high roster percentages seem likely.
Jon Gray, TEX vs. COL ($9,500): Gray makes for an interesting high-upside pivot from Brown. He's facing his former club, which could lead to some extra juice from him. He's been worth 52 and 49 FDP in his last two outings, fanning 13 across 15.0 innings while allowing only one run, but was worth just 51 FDP combined in his prior four starts. Colorado is marginally better off righties, fanning just 22.3 percent of the time, but the team brings an 83 wRC+ into Saturday's game and continues to struggle on the road.
Patrick Corbin, WAS vs. DET ($7,800): For me, your paydown options are a choice between Corbin and Miami's Braxton Garrett ($7,200), both of whom have been relatively consistent of late and have plus matchups against offenses that strike out at least 25 percent of the time against lefties. I'll cautiously side with Corbin here even with the higher price, as he's somehow allowed three or fewer runs in six straight starts, returning nearly 3.5x in five of those outings. Detroit brings a miniscule .296 wOBA and 87 wRC+ against lefties into Saturday.
Top Targets
For as obvious as Brown is on the bump, Aaron Judge ($4,500) seems equally so as the top offensive option to build around. He brings a six-game hitting streak into Saturday's game that's seen him homer a massive seven times. He also carries a team-leading .451 wOBA, 193 wRC+ and .400 ISO. There's also a favorable park situation in Cincinnati, and he'll face Luke Weaver, who is allowing a massive .587 wOBA and 1.459 OPS to righties at home.
Weather seems the only reason to not consider Bryce Harper ($4,200) here. Cubs starter Jameson Taillon is allowing lefties to post a .415 wOBA and .969 OPS to opposite-handed bats, and Harper boasts a .545 wOBA, 249 wRC+ and .303 ISO off righties to date.
Bargain Bats
If we trust that the weather holds, and you want to differentiate from Harper, Kyle Schwarber ($3,000) has the opportunity to produce against Taillon, albeit with far less favorable numbers to date. He is seemingly always a boom or bust option for GPPs.
Washington bats didn't fully deliver for me on Friday, but they didn't fail either. They remain priced under 3k across the board, and while the splits against righties aren't as solid as they are against lefties, they still merit consideration to round out lineups. Jeimer Candelario ($2,800) had 10 hits across four games before Friday's 0-for-4 showing, and his slightly above average 108 wRC+ is second on the team off righties. Tigers starter Alex Faedo has been more vulnerable to righties however, putting Joey Meneses ($2,800) in a decent spot to drive in a run or more.
If you're not interested in Garrett on the mound, Wilmer Flores ($2,900) has positive splits off lefties, posting a .393 wOBA, 150 wRC+ and decent 34.1 percent hard hit rate.
Finally, Jose Ramirez ($3,300) has returned from the bereavement list, and remains priced too low for his potential. The Guardians stink offensively overall, preventing us from a likely contrarian stack against a struggling Max Scherzer, but Ramirez makes for a nice lineup addition at this number regardless.
Stacks to Consider
Rays vs. Eric Lauer: Randy Arozarena ($4,100), Wander Franco ($3,900), Josh Lowe ($3,900)
I expect Houston and Texas bats to be favorite stacks on Saturday, so perhaps we can sneak the Rays by and find lower usage. Or perhaps the fact that they mash lefties makes it far too obvious? The numbers suggest this is a shoe-in for production. Arozarena has a monstrous .521 wOBA, 246 wRC+ and .500 ISO off lefties. Franco goes .455/200/.233 and Lowe .421/177/.286. It's pricey, so we'd need all three to produce for a fair return. Lauer meanwhile has a 4.54 ERA but elevated 5.97 FIP, allowing a .393 wOBA to righties against just .229 to lefties. Maybe sliding in Harold Ramirez ($3,100) over Lowe helps balance your budget a bit.
Pirates vs. Brandon Pfaadt: Bryan Reynolds ($3,300), Carlos Santana ($2,900), Jack Suwinski ($2,700)
Pfaadt showed something in his last start, allowing just one run across five innings, but still sits with a 8.59 ERA and 9.23 FIP. He's getting crushed by lefties to the tune of a .497 wOBA and 1.200 OPS, and that's what this stack gives us. Reynolds is priced too low for me, giving him stand alone merit, sitting with a decent .383 wOBA, 141 wRC+ and 39.6 percent hard hit rate. Suwinski is boom or bust, but betters Reynolds with a .403 wOBA, 155 wRC+ and .306 ISO. It's not easy to get excited about Santana, but he gives us another lefty in the top portion of the order, and he's hit safely in three straight and five of six and has produced at least some FDP in every game since May 8, and the matchup suggests he can offer more Saturday, assuming this game gets played.
