This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Eight games make up Saturday's main slate at FanDuel, with games starting between 4:05 and 4:10 p.m. EDT. All 16 pitchers are listed, but I got burned last night with a late switch in San Diego, so be sure to confirm right up until first pitch. Six of the 16 pitching options I consider pay ups, so 37.5 percent, suggesting we aren't forced to pay a premium for arms. That's not fully supported by betting lines, as five of these eight games have run totals of 9.0 runs or greater. Guardians-Rays is our low point at 7.5 runs.
Weather, per FanDuel, looks wet in Philadelphia, Boston and New York, but postponements don't seem likely, so we can target all games safely. Wind is again our ally in Boston and to a lesser degree in Philadelphia and Cincinnati.
Pitching
Andrew Abbott, CIN vs. MIA ($9,300): You're going to get a competitive advantage by targeting any of the arms priced above Abbott. They all have challenging matchups on paper, but are elite talents that can pop and should come with low roster percentages due to their opponents. But for this column, we need floor as much as ceiling, and that comes down to Abbott or Kutter Crawford, and the Marlins are the clear and obvious offense to target against for safety and potential. Miami enters Saturday as the league's worst offense against lefties, carrying a pathetic 68 wRC+, .268 wOBA and .098 ISO. They, surprisingly, don't strike out a ton at 22.8 percent, however. And Abbott may be more lucky than good, possessing a 3.06 ERA but a 4.83 ERA while striking out just 7.2 per nine. He's earning fantasy points via wins, with four straight and six in his last seven, but only three quality starts in that stretch.
Christian Scott, NYM vs. COL ($7,900): This will likely be everyone's popular mid-tier target. Colorado is targetable for opposing pitchers every night, especially on the road, entering Saturday with a massive 25.4 percent strikeout rate off righties and weak .302 wOBA and 79 wRC+. Scott hasn't been elite, allowing six runs in 11.1 innings since his recall from Triple-A while striking out five, so it's strictly a matchup play. But we should feel confident in Scott to at least work bulk innings with minimal damage. It's just fair to question the ceiling. Perhaps Tyler Phillips ($8,200) is a better GPP option with better strikeout form, but innings are the question there.
Gavin Williams, CLE at TB ($6,700): The run totals alone make Williams an attractive pay-down option with Tampa having an implied run total of 3.9. It's been a mixed bag of results from Cleveland's starter in his first two outings, as he's allowed five runs in four innings to the lowly White Sox before throwing 5.1 shutout innings against the Tigers. Tampa is just below league average off righties, entering Saturday with a 94 wRC+, a .295 wOBA and 23.8 percent strikeout rate.
Top Targets
Phillies will likely be everyone's building block. A's starter Mitch Spence enters Saturday with a 4.80 road ERA (4.05 xFIP) and is allowing lefties to post a .372 wOBA against him. Trea Turner ($3,900) is coming off a rare quiet Friday and should bounce back, but those splits from Spence suggest Bryce Harper ($3,800) and/or Kyle Schwarber ($3,800) are the better options.
I can virtually cut and paste from Friday's column regarding Elly De La Cruz ($4,200). The Reds have a 5.6 run expectancy, and Marlins' starter Edward Cabrera is allowing a .579 wOBA and 1.425 OPS (just 16 batters faced) to lefties on the road. Cruz is volatile for a pay up option with a low floor, but carries as high of a ceiling as possible.
Bargain Bats
Raise your hand if you're shocked to learn Milwaukee starter Dallas Keuchel has allowed just two runs in his last 9.2 innings, against the Dodgers and in Coors Field no less. That paired with minimal success from the Nationals off lefties keeps me off a stack, but Lane Thomas ($3,400) stands out singularly with a .431 wOBA, 182 wRC+ and .211 ISO off southpaws.
The Mets have the slate's highest run expectancy at 5.8, but nothing in their matchup against Ryan Feltner pops. Brandon Nimmo ($3,400) remains in terrific form and isn't priced too highly, riding a seven-game hitting streak.
We can be a little loose with our "bargain" options Saturday, as pitching isn't a necessary expense. Rece Hinds ($3,000) has three homers and eight RBI in his last five games, offering a lower entry-point into the Reds attack.
We're going to need to target some offenses against the top tier of pitching Saturday to be different. Baltimore against Luis Gil is my preference for that approach. He's faced the Orioles twice, hurling 6.1 shutout innings in May, and allowing seven runs and eight hits in 1.1 innings on June 20. He's off a quality start but had previously allowed 16 runs in his previous 9.2 innings, but his season-long body of work doesn't offer targetable splits. See how the Orioles line up and grab some secondary pieces, as only Gunnar Henderson is priced over $3,400. Cedric Mullins ($2,700) has homered off Gil in six attempts, while Ryan O'Hearn ($2,800) and Heston Kjerstad ($2,700) also can offer value if starting.
Stack to Consider
Rangers vs. Spencer Arrighetti (Astros): Corey Seager ($3,700), Josh Smith ($3,000), Nathaniel Lowe ($2,900)
Arrighetti has allowed eight runs in his last nine innings and 18 runs over his last 21.2 innings. He comes with a 5.01 home ERA (3.91 FIP) while allowing a .391 wOBA to lefties. Seager is a terrific stand alone play thanks to his surging form; three homers in his last five games and 22 hits in his last 16 games. We'll target two additional lefties against Arrighetti at a lower cost to round out this stack. Smith will hit behind Seager, making for an ideal mini-stack at a minimum. He's hitless in his last two after a seven-game hitting streak but has drawn three walks in those two outings, and Arrighetti is issuing 4.99 walks per nine, creating a reasonable floor. Lowe is 0-for-10 in his last three games and hasn't been elite all year. But the law of averages says he likely won't be 0-for-4 again Saturday, right? He's a third lefty who can create runs behind Smith and Seager.
