This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
It's the final day of July! August is looming. Monday brings us nine games on the slate, with the first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let's end July with gusto. Here are your DFS recommendations.
Pitching
Andrew Abbott, CIN at CHC ($10,800): Abbott has been crucial to a Reds team with playoff dreams and a bad rotation. He's made 10 starts and has an 1.90 ERA, with only one bad start to his name, and the lefty has kept both southpaws and right handers below the Mendoza Line. The Cubs have been very good offensively, but they are also stuck between stations as a team.
Corbin Burnes, MIL at WAS ($10,400): Burnes isn't at his Cy Young level, but he does have a 3.00 ERA on the road. Plus, he has been on fire recently. Over his last five starts he has an 1.64 ERA and has struck out 11.5 batters per nine innings. The Nationals are on the precipice of the bottom 10 in runs scored, and they are in the bottom five in home runs.
Alex Cobb, SF vs. ARI ($8,900): The Diamondbacks aren't an easy matchup, but Cobb is elite at keeping the ball in the park, and he's absolutely lights out at home. Last season, his first with the Giants, he had a 2.68 ERA at home. This year, Cobb has lowered his home ERA, dropping it all the way down to 1.09 - over 49.2 innings! Given that, I'll take Cobb at home, even in this matchup. The Giants haven't officially named a starter yet, but we're projecting it to be Cobb.
Top Targets
He's not Nolan Arenado, his hot corner predecessor with the Rockies, but Ryan McMahon ($3,900) does have an .822 OPS at home since 2021. However, the key with McMahon is he is a southpaw, and as many southpaws do he struggles hitting lefty pitchers. Over the last three years he has an .819 OPS against right-handed pitchers, including an .866 OPS this season. Seth Lugo is back starting for the first time since 2017, and he has a 3.75 FIP. Now, he's at Coors.
Injuries and ineffectual performances have surrounded him in Houston, but Kyle Tucker ($3,600) has delivered as we have come to expect. He's slashed .299/.380/.511 with 18 homers and 19 stolen bases. Not only that, he has an 1.165 OPS over the last three weeks. Noah Syndergaard will be making his first start with Cleveland and, well, good luck to all parties. He has a 7.16 ERA and has allowed 1.95 home runs per nine innings.
Bargain Bats
The revitalization of Christian Yelich ($3,500) has come not from getting better against lefties, but crushing righties at a higher level. He's posted a .917 OPS versus right-handed pitchers. Jake Irvin has a 5.47 FIP and has allowed nine home runs over his last 32.1 innings. Not only that, lefties have hit .280 against Irvin.
You put Joc Pederson ($3,100) at the plate at home against a righty, and power is in the offing. Since joining the Giants he's slugged over .500 against righties, and also over .500 at home. Rookie righty Ryne Nelson has a 4.97 ERA and has struck out only 5.93 batters per nine innings. Now, he has an 8.01 ERA at home and a 2.67 ERA on the road. However, my feeling is that level of split, even if it was a Rockies pitcher, is not indicative of anything but a sequencing of performances. If you put up an ERA over 8.00 over a long enough period of time in any circumstance, I take that as an overarching red flag.
Stacks to Consider
Padres at Rockies (Austin Gomber): Fernando Tatis ($4,500), Manny Machado ($4,000), Xander Bogaerts ($3,400)
I mentioned Coors Field, and the Padres have the bats that the Rockies lack. Gomber doesn't strike out many batters, which is a problem when you pitch at Coors. He has a 7.19 ERA at home where he has allowed 2.1 homers per nine innings. Now, Gomber is a southpaw, so I have three righties in this stack.
Tatis is doing something akin to a cover version of his 2021 campaign, as he's hit .275 with 18 homers and 17 stolen bases in 86 games. That includes an 1.003 OPS versus lefties. Machado started the season cold, but over the last three weeks he has an 1.009 OPS. On the year he's been decent, but unremarkable, against righties, but he has a .951 OPS versus southpaws. Bogaerts has struggled in 2023, mostly because his power has dipped significantly. However, he has a .346 OBP with 11 homers and 11 stolen bases, and maybe a trip to Coors will help.
Atlanta vs. Angels (Griffin Canning): Austin Riley ($3,800), Marcell Ozuna ($3,300), Orlando Arcia ($2,800)
Canning missed the 2022 season, but nothing has changed. He has a 4.61 FIP this season, in line with his career 4.54 FIP. Canning has allowed 1.70 homers per nine innings, in line with his career 1.59 number. Now, he is a righty, but he's held lefties to a .209 average, while righties have hit .275 against him. That's why I have three right handers in this stack.
Riley has gotten back in the groove that he's shown the last two seasons when he revamped his swing. He has an 1.024 OPS over the last three weeks. Also, on the year he has a .924 OPS at home. Ozuna is more of the swing-for-the-fences sort, but he's slugged .479 with 22 homers. He also has an .832 OPS at home as well. Arcia has hit .298 with a .351 OBP, with an .864 OPS at home. He also has an .850 OPS over the last 21 days.
Rays at Yankees (Domingo German): Randy Arozarena ($3,500), Isaac Paredes ($3,200), Luke Raley ($3,100)
Remember when German had a perfect game? Since then he's made four starts and has a 5.64 ERA, having allowed three homers in his last outing. That's not surprising, as he has a 4.77 ERA and has allowed 1.74 home runs per nine innings. Now, lefties do hit plenty of homers off German, but righties have a .240 average against him since 2021, compared to a .211 average for lefties. That's why I have two righty Rays in this stack.
Arozarena has been cold. This is a gamble on him getting on track. He does have a .366 OBP with 17 homers and 12 stolen bases on the year, and has two prior 20/20 seasons to his name. Paredes has built upon his "homers and nothing else" performance in 2022, his first real MLB action. This year he has a .359 OBP and .502 slugging percentage with 20 homers. While he is a righty, he has a .901 OPS versus right handers, which helps. Raley is the lefty, but this matchup is up his alley. He has a .908 OPS versus righties, but also a .961 OPS on the road.
