This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A busy 12-game slate awaits Friday evening at FanDuel's main contest. San Francisco is currently without a listed pitcher, giving us 23 options to target for and against. Five of those options are priced in the five figures, though only four more come in at $9,000 or more, so we've got 60 percent of our pitching that's not at a premium price. And that's again backed up by run totals, as only Royals-Rockies in Coors Field has a double-digit line (10.5). Braves-Phillies and Mariners-Blue Jays are our low spots at 7.5 runs. The two sub-$6,000 pitchers appear to be openers/bullpen games and shouldn't be considered.
Rain looks probable in Atlanta, which is unfortunate, as the Braves offense is simply putrid and Aaron Nola ($10,200) would be my preferred pay-up pitcher if things clear up there. Additionally, Trea Turner ($3,600) is locked in and 15-for-39 off Max Fried, making him an elite bat to target. I'll omit this game from the breakdown, but check back before the first pitch and deploy these options if possible. Rain also needs to be monitored in New York, Cleveland and Cincinnati.
Pitching
Tanner Bibee, CLE vs. SF ($9,800): Bibee looks like a solid and safe option Friday. He's earned quality starts in three straight and in six of his last eight, showing a 30-point fantasy floor in those eight starts. The Giants played late last night and traveled afterward. They have a below-average 99 wRC+ off righties. We know they're a heavy platoon lineup that will send as many left-handers as possible into tonight's lineup. Bibee is allowing a .329 wOBA to lefties at home with a 3.55 xFIP while striking out 11 per nine innings.
Kevin Gausman, TOR at SEA ($9,000): Both sides of this pitching matchup seem to merit consideration for GPPs as it comes with the slate's lowest run total. They both have positive numbers against their opponent, but neither is in good form, making it a touch risky. I'll back Gausman as the upside play as his adversary Luis Castillo isn't striking guys out. Further, the Mariners have a much higher strikeout rate off righties at a massive 28.7 percent clip. Gausman has dominated Seattle's lineup, which is 18-for-98 (.184) with a .580 OPS and 29.1 percent strikeout rate.
Michael Lorenzen, TEX vs. TB ($7,800): There are some interesting options in the $7-$8,000 pitching tier, but they of course all have worts. Drew Thorpe is where I want to go against Miami, having earned consecutive quality starts. But his 4.43 ERA, 5.22 xFIP, unsustainable .183 BABIP and 5.8 K/9 rate don't play, even in a plus-matchup. As such, I'll back Lorenzen as a pay-down option who likely won't implode. Tampa's offense is middling with a .298 wOBA and 97 wRC+ while fanning at a 23.7 percent clip off righties. Lorenzen has four quality starts in his last six outings, while allowing three runs or fewer in eight of his last nine.
Top Targets
Royals bats are the clear option Friday in Coors Field, but I'd caution a touch as they're priced up and Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has been surprisingly solid at home, posting a 1.64 ERA and 2.88 FIP. Maybe a BvP play on Hunter Renfroe ($3,500), who is 9-for-27 (.333) with a homer and .852 OPS is a way to get a share while being different and not paying a hefty price.
Outside of Kansas City, only the Orioles, Dodgers and Guardians have expected run totals greater than five, so it makes sense to just build around their studs and take cheaper shots elsewhere. Gunnar Henderson ($4,400) stands out with a .394 wOBA, 160 wRC+ and .258 ISO off lefties, while A's starter Hogan Harris is allowing a .372 wOBA to same-handed hitters. Adley Rutschman ($3,600) makes for a nice mini-stack. I'd support Jose Ramirez ($4,200) for a cheaper pay-up bat to Shohei Ohtani ($4,900)
Bargain Bats
The Padres look stackable Friday against Slade Cecconi, but the Diamondbacks' starter has been far better on the road than at home, so I'm not all in. Still, Jurickson Profar ($3,400) remains an elite option that isn't priced as such. He comes in with a .380 wOBA and 154 wRC+ off righties. I'd have no issue pairing him with Manny Machado ($3,200) and Jake Cronenworth ($3,100), though I expect it to be rather trendy.
Somewhat quietly, Tyler Glasnow has allowed five runs in two of his last four starts. Jackson Chourio ($2,800) is riding a 10-game hitting streak where he's collected 14 total knocks, two homers, nine RBI and nine runs scored.
A seemingly random BvP could be Rob Refsnyder ($2,900), one of Boston's few right-handed bats that could be elevated in the lineup as a result and is 6-for-10 with a 1.400 OPS against Nestor Cortes. In the same game, Gleyber Torres ($2,600) is 5-for-19 (.263) with a .860 OPS off Tanner Houck, who's allowed nine runs in his last 11.0 innings.
Stacks to Consider
Marlins vs. Drew Thorpe (White Sox): Jazz Chisholm ($3,100), Bryan De La Cruz ($2,900), Jesus Sanchez ($2,600)
Perhaps my overindulgence from July 4th hasn't worn off, but this stack could pop for GPPs. I noted Thorpe's unsustainable current form above, so why not take a shot at the regression? It's a small sample size, but Thorpe is allowing a .412 wOBA and .955 OPS to lefties on the road, making Chisholm and Sanchez very appealing and very affordable. Sanchez has homered in two of his last three and Chisolm has hit safely in six out of eight. De La Cruz has five hits in his last four games and likely gives us a 1-2-4 lineup combo to potentially feed off each other.
Diamondbacks vs Matt Waldron (Padres): Christian Walker ($3,700), Joc Pederson ($3,200), Corbin Carroll ($3,100)
I touched on the appeal of the Padres earlier. If they pop as expected, Arizona will need to as well to keep this competitive, so perhaps I'm leaning towards an over 8.5 run bet here. Waldron has been touched up somewhat, allowing five runs and 11 hits across his last 10.2 innings. He has faced the Diamondbacks twice already this season, allowing eight runs and 11 hits across 9.0 frames. Walker is the hottest hitter on the planet in a short span, mashing five homers in his last three games while collecting 13 hits, 11 RBI and eight runs scored in his last five. Pederson is 0-for-9 off Waldron but has homered in two of his last three. Carroll gives us a third top-of-the-order option who's hit in three of his last four, scoring four times.
