This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
With four games earlier in the afternoon/evening, FanDuel's Friday main slate is a slightly reduced 11-gamer. Early weather reports look mostly stable across the board.
Five pitchers come in with a five-figure price tag, with three more in the 9k range. That's eight of the 22 listed arms, giving a good amount to choose from up top while also having ample lower end options to target against. Houston's Framber Valdez ($11,200) leads the way against lowly Oakland, whom he's posted 98 FDP against in two starts. He doesn't need any further space in this column.
Pitching
Shohei Ohtani, LAA vs. PIT ($10,200): The only real question here is Ohtani's health, as blister and cracked nail issues haven't allowed him to go beyond five innings in either of his last two starts. His two prior starts yielded 56 and 58 FDP, so we know the upside exists for him to match or best Valdez and the price is 1k lower. The matchup looks great. Pittsburgh has only a marginal 23.1 percent strikeout rate, but also just an 86 wRC+ and .132 ISO off righties. The floor may be lower than we want at this price, but the ceiling certainly isn't.
Lance Lynn, CWS at MIN ($9,200): Lynn is a GPP upside option for me only, and likely shouldn't be considered for cash games. The opponent in Minnesota fans at a massive 27.2 percent rate, and Lynn has really ramped up his swing and miss, striking out six in six straight with 54 total in his last 36.0 innings. The problem is he's allowed at leat three earned runs in five of those six outings, and Minnesota ranks 11th off righties with a .323 wOBA and 107 wRC+. Lynn did earn 43 FDP against the Twins in April, and has allowed a .211 average, .660 OPS and 33.1 percent K rate against their lineup, giving us a tad more confidence.
Clarke Schmidt, NYY vs. KC ($8,000): Weather is of minor concern here, but the matchup certainly isn't. Kansas City ranks last offensively against righties with a .286 wOBA, 77 wRC+ while fanning at a 24.3 percent clip. But Schmidt has actually been pretty decent of late in his own right, averaging 27.9 FDP across his last 10 starts. The matchup suggests that form can continue at worst, and lends itself to upside, making a 4x return well within reach.
Top Targets
Cincinnati has a handful of options with positive splits off lefties, so there are multiple ways to attack their lineup without stacking, as Tommy Henry has allowed just seven runs in his last five starts. Matt McLain ($3,800) is the higher priced option, sporting a .436 wOBA, 170 wRC+ and .316 ISO.
In a limited sample size, Michael Soroka has been more getable by same handed bats (.395 wOBA vs. .370 to lefties). But Milwaukee's lineup overall is far from trustworth, sans from Christian Yelich ($3,800). His .387 wOBA off righties is far and away the team's best, with a 144 wRC+ to boot, and he has 22 hits over his last 15 games.
Bargain Bats
Looking further down the Cincinnati options, Spencer Steer ($3,400) and Nick Senzel ($2,700) stand out. Steer sits with a .394 wOBA, 142 wRC+ and .283 ISO, while Senzel is at .424/162/.238 while offering a variety of positional options, though also potentially without a spot in the lineup, having not started since the break.
Lane Thomas ($3,500) isn't exactly priced as a bargain, but we can't ignore his .441 wOBA, 179 wRC+ and .269 ISO off of lefties. CJ Abrams ($2,900) has terrible LvL splits, but merits consideration simply on form, with 15 hits in his last nine games.
Chas McCormick ($3,500) profiles identically to Thomas. He isn't cheap or expensive, has a great .448 wOBA, 193 wRC+ and .316 ISO off lefties, and has hit in seven straight. Mauricio Dubon ($2,700) could offer more value however, and has a .379 wOBA and 145 wRC+ off lefties, albeit with minimal power.
Mickey Moniak ($3,400) is yet another option that isn't priced super cheap, but is in a terrific spot. He has a 10-game hitting streak, and a team-leading .458 wOBA, 198 wRC+ and .341 ISO off righties. This slate is setting up to where we may not need to take big bats but rather build a well rounded, deeper offensive lineup.
For some real value, without considering a stack in a favorable spot, consider the Yankees. Royals' starter Alec Marsh is allowing a .456 wOBA and 1.080 OPS to lefties on the road, giving Anthony Rizzo ($2,700) some potential. And though from the right side, Oswald Peraza ($2,300) could hit leadoff, and is stealing bags, giving him potential at the low price point.
Stacks to Consider
Diamondbacks vs. Ben Lively: Corbin Carroll ($4,000), Ketel Marte ($3,500), Christian Walker ($3,400)
I highlighted this trio in my last column Tuesday where many others didn't see to do so, and it responded with a collective 8-for-16 with two homers, two doubles, a triple, 10 RBI and eight runs scored. That'll work right? There's no way we get a repeat here, but the price point overall remains favorable, and the ballpark situation does as well. Lively hasn't been bad, but he's getable, not posting a quality start in his last seven tries. He's allowing a .340 wOBA to lefties at home, and just .261 to righties. Perhaps that gives us lower usage than expected given the form this trio showed in Atlanta and the favorable park situation.
Giants vs. Jake Irvin: Michael Conforto ($3,000), Joc Pederson ($3,000), Mike Yastrzemski ($2,900)
To be frank, I find this slate difficult to stack, and it's low hanging fruit to pick on the lowest priced arm. Irvin's .357 wOBA allowed to lefties isn't supremely targetable, but he's allowed 12 earned runs over his last four starts, has a 4.97 home ERA and 5.97 xFIP, so we don't expect him to control the Giants. Conforto's .345 wOBA is the worst of these three, but he's in nice form, with 12 hits and a homer over his last eight. Pederson and Yastrzemski offer a wRC+ of at least 121, and this trio gives us a rock solid center of the lineup stack in position to produce runs.
