This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
We've emerged from the All-Star Break with a loaded 14-game main slate to kick things off. As is customary on the first day back, we have some ambiguity on the pitching front. FanDuel is routinely adding arms as they're confirmed, but as of Thursday evening, three starters are missing while Shoehi Ohtani is throwing for the Angels but rarely only available as a bat.
Eduardo Rodriguez is the surprising top-priced arm; he's got potential but struggled in his first start since injury against Oakland. Only two games come with a currently listed total north of 10 runs, while Seattle-Detroit sits at a slate-low 7.0 runs.
Pitching
Charlie Morton, ATL vs. CWS ($9,500): Morton headed into the break in a terrific groove, averaging 37.38 FDP across his last eight starts, only once failing to reach 33 FDP. He's done so with only two quality starts in that stretch, as pitch counts have limited his innings upside. Walks remain an issue, but the White Sox take free passes only 6.6 percent of the time off righties. They fan at a 23.3 percent clip, while offering just a .294 wOBA and 85 wRC+, suggesting Morton can limit damage, get us 5+ with a solid strikeout total. At worst, he seems like a great pivot/lower used option to Tyler Glasnow or Luis Castillo.
Brayan Bello, BOS at CHC ($8,500): I really wanted to work Sandy Alcantara into this column, and I still think he's a strong GPP option given a matchup many will fade and the minor price point, but I couldn't overlook Bello. He has turned in an impressive six straight quality starts and gets a Cubs' lineup that's statistically worse off righties than the Orioles who Alcantara draws. Chicago fans 23.6 percent of the time while offering a below-average 94 wRC+. Bello isn't a big strikeout guy, so we'll need innings, but having not allowed more than three runs since his season debut, it's fair to expect a long outing with minimal damage.
Kenta Maeda, MIN at OAK ($7,000): Maeda is going to be an obvious target strictly based on the matchup with Oakland, whose lineup is hitting just .218 with a .286 wOBA, 85 wRC+ and 25.1 percent K rate off righties. But Maeda is throwing far too well for this price regardless of the matchup. Since returning from injury, he's allowed only three runs and 11 hits across 17.0 innings while fanning 21. The price point and potential make him likely to be heavily targeted, and Oakland is calling up some top prospects that could pop. But there's so little risk given the tag.
Top Targets
We know two things about the Atlanta lineup, they rake top to bottom, and they are pricey as such. But Friday seems to have enough value where we can build around one of their aces. White Sox starter Michael Kopech is allowing a .396 wOBA and .924 OPS to righties on the road, setting Ronald Acuna ($4,600) up for another potential double-digit fantasy day, while Sean Murphy ($4,200) has a .417 wOBA, 162 wRC+ and .305 ISO off righties, making for a nice contrarian option.
Rangers starter Jon Gray has allowed a 6.98 ERA and 5.23 xFIP across his last four starts, suggesting interest in Guardian bats. But Gray has been tough on lefties all year, which Cleveland is ripe with, while allowing a .416 wOBA to righties, where this lineup isn't rich. As such, I'll back Jose Ramirez ($3,900) and his season long success from the left side (.394 wOBA, 156 wRC+) rather than stacking, and move along.
Bargain Bats
Yankee bats in Coors Field, against Austin Gomber, are going to be far too obvious. He's allowing a .459 wOBA and 1.103 OPS to same-handed bats at home, and .397/.953 to righties. To top it off, none of the Yankees are priced above Harrison Bader ($3,200), who has a tremendous .549 wOBA, 265 wRC+ and 51.7 percent hard hit rate off southpaws. It's an easy stack that isn't going to set you apart from the field, but any of Bader, Giancarlo Stanton ($3,100) and/or Anthony Rizzo ($3,100) give you pieces to this offense.
Reds starter Graham Ashcraft went into the break with some momentum, allowing two runs across 12.2 innings, but had allowed 19 runs in his previous three starts, including nine on 10 hits against the Brewers on June 4. He's allowing a .420 wOBA and .994 OPS to righties at home. Willy Adames ($3,100) has four homers in his last five, and 11 RBI in his last seven, making for a nice upside play.
Seattle has some secondary bats that have positive splits off lefties. I don't recomend a bottom of the order stack, but there are ample choices to help round out lineups, even when facing the slate's top-priced arm. Teoscar Hernandez ($2,900) sits with a .293 ISO and 143 wRC+. Jose Caballero ($2,600) has a team-best .398 wOBA and 163 wRC+, and Ty France ($2,900) a .371 wOBA and 143 wRC+.
Finally, San Francisco is a nice lineup to grab a piece or two against Rich Hill. Patrick Bailey ($3,200), Austin Slater ($2,600), and Wilmer Flores ($2,900) all have a wOBA of at least .380, with Slater being my favorite (.443 wOBA, 183 wRC+) likely hitting atop the lineup.
Stacks to Consider
Rays vs. Alec Marsh: Randy Arozarena ($3,700), Luke Raley ($3,300), Jonathan Aranda ($2,000)
Marsh has been solid in Triple-A, but hasn't proven capable of getting major league hitters out, allong three homers, nine hits and seven runs across two starts, spanning nine innings. I like stacking Tampa here and then grabbing a Yankee or two to be a tad contrarian. And if the Rays final lineup before the break is any indication, this likely gets us a 3-4-5 lineups stack. Arozarena anchors with a decent .381 wOBA and 152 wRC+, while Raley gives us some thump off rightie, sitting with a .304 ISO to go with a team-best .399 wOBA and 164 wRC+, Aranda comes with minimal risk given his bottom price. He has a nice 1.044 OPS at Triple-A, and figures to slot into the lineup with Yandy Diaz out.
Diamondbacks vs. Chris Bassitt: Corbin Carroll ($4,000), Ketel Marte ($3,500), Geraldo Perdomo ($2,700)
Lots of assumptions with this stack, but at the end, they make sense. Bassitt isn't confirmed/listed on FanDuel, but he's the expected starter. He has odd home/road splits, but overall is allowing a .401 wOBA to lefties to date, which allows us to target the top of the D'Backs line that should all swing from the left side. Carroll is a regular option, and brings a .411 wOBA and 159 wRC+ off righties to the table. Marte sits at .359/123, and Perdomo .354/120. I like this game to shoot out a bit, as Arizona starter Ryne Nelson is vulnerable despite having positive numbers on the road. This side of the two offenses is simply more affordable.
