This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We're halfway through June, and summer proper is right around the corner. Thursday is a pivot point in the week for MLB basically every time it comes around, and this week is no different. We've got seven games starting at 7:10 p.m. ET or later. Here are my DFS recommendations.
Pitching
Sonny Gray, MIN vs. DET ($9,300): I can't get Gray in my lineup fast enough for this matchup. Sure, he has a 2.25 ERA – 1.71 at home – bolstered by a 2.42 FIP that speaks to legitimacy in his peripherals. However, the Tigers are baseball's worst offense, and they are on the road after a doubleheader Wednesday. Gray couldn't be catching a better opponent.
AJ Smith-Shawver, ATL vs. COL ($5,500): With Yu Darvish having his start bumped a day, instead of going with Ryan Weathers, I decided to save even more salary and go with Smith-Shawver. In his first MLB start he went 5.1 innings and didn't allow an earned run against the Nationals. The Rockies are away from Coors, and their home/road splits are always striking.
Top Targets
He hasn't fallen back to his pre-breakthrough numbers, but Austin Riley ($5,300) has been a bit lackluster this season. However, the problem has been largely on the road, and against righties. Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised, as his breakthrough has been powered by a .918 OPS versus lefties since 2021, and an .890 OPS at home in that time. He gets to face southpaw Kyle Freeland on Thursday, who has struck out a mere 5.80 batters per nine innings and allowed 1.42 home runs per nine as well. Don't chalk it up to Coors, though. He's allowed 2.1 homers per nine innings on the road in 2023.
After a 30/25 season in 2022, Kyle Tucker ($5,100) has nine homers and 11 stolen bases this year. Key to me here, though, is that he has an .838 OPS versus his fellow lefties since 2021. In his first season with the Nationals, MacKenzie Gore has a 4.20 FIP and has allowed 1.43 home runs per nine innings. Also, significantly, lefties have hit .349 against him.
Bargain Bats
Building upon a promising, if truncated, rookie campaign, Seiya Suzuki ($3,700) has slashed .282/.373/.452 with six home runs. In his career he has an .879 OPS against left handers as well. Rich Hill is 43 and still pitching, which is impressive. What's not impressive, though, is his 4.39 FIP and 26.4 line-drive percentage.
You won't see him in the lineup against a lefty, but Gavin Sheets ($2,000) shows up when right handers are on the mound. In his career he has a .769 OPS versus righties. I'm also encouraged that, for once, Sheets has been better on the road after being way better at home the prior two seasons. Michael Grove isn't quite ready for MLB, it seems. He has a career 6.29 ERA, and lefties have hit .316 against him as well.
Stacks to Consider
Dodgers vs. White Sox (Dylan Cease): Freddie Freeman ($6,300), J.D. Martinez ($5,400), David Peralta ($2,700)
Don't be too excited about Cease's numbers improving the last few weeks. Here are his last five opponents: Cleveland, Cleveland, Detroit, Detroit, and Miami. Yeah, the Dodgers are a step up. Plus, he still has a 4.38 ERA, including a 5.34 ERA on the road.
Freeman has been stellar, as per usual, having slashed .332/.412/.575 with 13 homers and nine stolen bases. While he has actually been better versus southpaws in 2023, since 2021 he has a .950 OPS against right-handed pitchers. Martinez has slugged .598 and tallied 16 home runs. That includes teeing off on righties to the tune of a .977 OPS. Peralta has oddly struggled versus righties and done well against lefties this year, but since 2021 he has a .740 OPS against righties. He also has an .823 OPS at home. While he doesn't play every day, over the last three weeks he has an 1.050 OPS as well.
Twins vs. Tigers (Matthew Boyd): Carlos Correa ($4,000), Royce Lewis ($3,300), Michael Taylor ($2,200)
The Twins don't have great options for a stack against a lefty, but I wanted to go for it anyway. Boyd has a 5.55 ERA in his return to the Tigers' rotation. That's not a surprise, as he had a 4.96 ERA in his previous stint starting for Detroit before briefly appearing in Seattle's bullpen last season. This is pretty much the only trio you can stack here, but to me it's a good choice.
It's been a down year for Correa, though his .255 BABIP, compared to his .314 BABIP, is partially responsible. He still has an .803 OPS versus lefties this year, and an .877 OPS in those matchups since 2021. Lewis is still Minnesota's top prospect, and he just needs a chance to get healthy and stay on the field. He does have a .985 OPS in the minors over the last two years, and he's hit .304 in MLB this year. Taylor may have a sub-.300 OBP, but he still has 10 homers and 11 stolen bases. He's also slugged .489 at home in 2023.
