This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Before you know it, August is going to be here. Well, if you look at the calendar, you will very much know when August begins, but either way it's close, believe that. First, though, we must finish up the last bit of July. Sunday features 10 games on the DFS docket, with the first couple starting at 1:35 p.m. ET. Here are my lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Aaron Nola, PHI at CLE ($11,000): Nola's had a rough season, having seen his FIP rise from 2.57 to 4.18. The key issue is clear, as Nola has allowed 1.50 home runs per nine innings, significantly more than the 1.05 he's allowed in his career. This matchup isn't a threat in that sense, as the Guardians are comfortably last in home runs.
Jesus Luzardo, MIA vs. COL ($10,800): By this point, Luzardo has put together a couple seasons' worth of success, so there's no feeling of flukiness in his 3.27 FIP. Once again, he's struck out double-digit batters per nine innings as well. Colorado is in the bottom 10 in runs scored, and when you consider its home ballpark, that looks even worse.
Bailey Ober, MIN vs. CWS ($9,800): A couple of Ober's compatriots in Minnesota's rotation have had some struggles, but he's been largely consistent game in and game out. All in all, he's posted a 2.74 ERA through 15 starts. The White Sox hit a fair amount of home runs, but when they aren't hitting homers, they have a sub-.300 on-base percentage as a team.
Top Targets
In addition to his robust .381 OBP, Mookie Betts ($6,300) has 27 homers and 24 doubles after having 35 of the former and 40 of the latter last season. Martin Perez's 2022 has proven a clear outlier in his career. The lefty has a 5.43 FIP, and he's managed a mere 5.77 strikeouts per nine innings. Betts is going to make contact (unless he's walked time and time again).
Given an opportunity to face a righty, Gunnar Henderson ($5,000) looks like the guy who was seen by many as the top prospect in baseball. He's posted an .856 OPS versus righties, and 18 of his 19 career home runs have come against right handers. Rookie Taj Bradley fits a profile, which is to say a raw pitcher with a big fastball that helps him rack up strikeouts but also leaves him to be hit hard. He has a 5.29 ERA and has allowed 1.63 home runs per nine innings and a 25.1 percent line-drive rate.
Bargain Bats
All things considered, Bobby Witt ($4,800) has delivered what could be expected from him. He had a sub-.300 OBP with 20 homers, six triples and 30 stolen bases as a rookie, and this year he has 16 homers, six triples, and 27 stolen bases. Luis Severino is having a disastrous campaign, as he has a 6.66 ERA and has allowed 2.22 home runs per nine innings.
Rookie catcher Patrick Bailey ($3,800) has been cold recently, but maybe he just needs a matchup with a lefty. Though he's a switch hitter, Bailey has issues with righties but an .882 OPS versus southpaws. MacKenzie Gore, a lefty, has a career 4.55 ERA, and this year he's allowed 1.50 home runs per nine innings.
Stacks to Consider
Diamondbacks at Reds (Luke Weaver): Corbin Carroll ($6,000), Ketel Marte ($5,400), Christian Walker ($5,300)
The Diamondbacks will enjoy this reunion with their former pitcher Weaver, but only because he'll be on the mound for the opposition. Weaver has a career 5.19 ERA, but this season his ERA is up to 7.22. Even worse, he has an 8.44 ERA at home, where he's allowed 3.1 home runs per nine innings.
Carroll's 20 home runs and 29 stolen bases have him as the heavy favorite for NL Rookie of the Year, and his success against righties plays a big part in that. In his career he has a .954 OPS versus righties. Marte has been equally good against righties and lefties this year, but the switch hitter may want to bat from the right side in this matchup. This season, Weaver has allowed righties to hit a staggering .349 against him. As a righty with power, this matchup is right up Walker's alley. He's slugged .510 with 20 home runs, and he hit 36 homers last season.
Atlanta at Brewers (Julio Teheran): Matt Olson ($6,400), Austin Riley ($5,800), Michael Harris ($4,200)
Speaking of reunions between teams and former pitchers, the last time Teheran had a regular role in MLB, it was 2019 and he was posting a 4.65 FIP with Atlanta. Left in a tight spot, the Brewers have given Teheran an opportunity and through nine starts, he owns a very similar 4.75 FIP, and that's with a 15.1 line-drive percentage that is probably unsustainably low. Things could get worse for Teheran, and Atlanta has a lineup that can make that happen.
Olson has become almost a must-roster whenever he's facing a righty with any propensity for giving up homers. His 32 home runs on the year come paired with an 1.016 OPS against right-handed pitchers. Riley hits lefties better, but after a long stretch of scuffling performance to start this season, he has a .922 OPS over the last three weeks, and he's hit six homers over his last five games. Teheran, for his part, has allowed righties to hit .253 against him. As a rookie, Harris posted a .943 OPS versus righties, and while this year that number is down to .770 this year, his overall play recently has been better. Over the last 21 days, he has an .805 OPS.
