This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
There are a trio of 6:40 p.m. ET starts for MLB on Friday, but DraftKings decided not to include those in the mix for DFS. Instead, there are 11 games on the slate for DFS purposes, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET. Here are my lineup recommendations to kick off the weekend.
Pitching
Framber Valdez, HOU at OAK ($10,800): This is a simple call. The Athletics are last in many offensive categories, including runs and team OPS. One spot where Oakland isn't in the bottom five, though, is home runs. Well, Valdez is perhaps the best starting pitcher at avoiding home runs, a big reason why he has a 2.76 ERA. The relative "strength" of the Athletics' offense is the exact thing that Valdez is built to minimize.
Joe Ryan, MIN vs. CWS ($10,600): Ryan has had a few rough starts recently, but still has a 3.59 FIP through 19 starts. Plus, his home ERA this year is 3.32, so he's had a better go of it in Minnesota. The White Sox have the second-best offense in the AL Central, but of course are still in the bottom 10 in runs scored. They also have a sub-.300 OBP as a team.
Alex Wood, SF at WAS ($6,000): I'm not sure how much it means, but this year Wood has a 2.96 ERA on the road, compared to a 6.15 ERA at home. This is more about the matchup as is, though. The Nationals are 25th in runs scored and are in the bottom five in home runs as well.
Top Targets
Well, Christian Yelich ($4,900) got picked off on first base Thursday, so clearly everything is falling apart. Unless…picking up three hits including your 13th home run to move your slash line up to .287/.376/.480 is good, right? The lefty has been "Squint and you see his MVP form" good against righties in 2023. I am glad for Michael Soroka that he is back on an MLB mound, but he has a 6.67 FIP so far, which makes it seem like perhaps he is not up to speed yet.
His sophomore season has been frustrating at times (maybe not "break your foot kicking a water cooler" frustrating, but frustrating), but Julio Rodriguez ($4,900) has 13 homers and 22 stolen bases, and for DFS players that means something. A matchup with Yusei Kikuchi helps. Every season of his MLB career, the lefty has been a bad pitcher, and every season save for the truncated 2020 campaign he's allowed a ton of home runs. His career 5.02 FIP offers up a nice opportunity for Rodriguez to show that flashy rookie form.
Bargain Bats
The Yankees are an absolute mess, but I wanted to find somebody for this matchup Friday. In the end, Gleyber Torres ($4,900) was the only name for whom I could muster any enthusiasm. He's hit .263 with 14 homers and eight stolen bases, which is something, and he has a .925 OPS over the last two weeks. Alec Marsh racked up 11 strikeouts in his third MLB start, which is good. He also allowed two home runs in 6.0 innings and has a 6.62 FIP.
The beginnings of "Quad-A" fears were starting to seep in for Alex Kirilloff ($2,200) but thanks to recent spate of hot play, I think we can upgrade him to "legitimate platoon player" for now. The lefty still struggles against southpaws, but he has a .921 OPS against righties this year. At 36, Lance Lynn is having the wildest season of his career. He's posting career highs in strikeouts per nine (11.05) and home runs per nine (1.99). Lefties have been absolutely teeing off on Lynn too, managing a .337 average.
Stacks to Consider
Reds vs. Diamondbacks (Tommy Henry): Matt McLain ($5,700), Spencer Steer ($4,700), TJ Friedl ($4,500)
Henry dropping his ERA from 5.36 to 3.89 gives the perception of improvement, but his 3.89 ERA pairs with a 5.07 FIP. The lefty has struck out fewer batters (6.41 per nine), and has still allowed 1.37 home runs per nine innings. This is a battle of two young, exciting offenses, and the Reds have stack options galore. These are the three I decided to go with.
McLain got Thursday off, perhaps with the knowledge this Friday matchup is right up his alley. The rookie has an 1.036 OPS versus lefties and a .996 OPS at home. Steer has been cold since the break, but he still has a .270 average with 14 homers and nine stolen bases. In his career he has a .950 against left-handed pitchers as well. Friedl is notable, in that he is a lefty that has a career .922 OPS versus southpaws. Meanwhile, Henry is a lefty who has allowed left-handed hitters to average .298 against him.
Diamondbacks at Reds (Ben Lively): Corbin Carroll ($5,8000, Christian Walker ($5,400), Jake McCarthy ($3,000)
I mentioned young, exciting offenses, so why not flip this one around? Lively is 31, and he spent the 2022 season in Triple-A. Like, the entire season. That is not encouraging. Indeed, he has a 4.87 FIP and has allowed 1.78 home runs per nine innings. Lively is here due to a lack of options for the Reds, and that plays into the hands of the Diamondbacks.
Carroll was slow out of the gate after the break, but he picked up his 19th homer and 29th stolen base Thursday. The lefty also has a .950 OPS against righties and a .959 OPS on the road in his career. Walker is a righty, but righties have hit .252 against Lively this year. He hit 36 homers last year, and has 20 this season, and Lively has allowed 2.4 homers per nine innings at home. McCarthy is a speedy southpaw. He had 22 stolen bases in 99 games last year, and he already has 23 this season with five triples in 66 games. It tends to be easier to steal on righties, and McCarthy should be able to show off his speed Friday.
Dodgers at Rangers (Andrew Heaney): Mookie Betts ($6,300), Will Smith ($5,600), Chris Taylor ($3,000)
Heaney was a Dodger last year, but his move to the Rangers has been one of the few moves for them that hasn't worked out. The lefty has a 5.03 FIP all in all, and he has a 4.75 ERA at home. Now, Heaney is a southpaw who can keep lefties in check, while righties have hit .255 against him. That made my decision fairly simple in terms of choosing Dodgers to stack.
Betts is an incredible leadoff guy, as he has a .380 OBP with 75 runs racked up. However, he's also an elite power hitter with 27 homers and a .574 slugging percentage. Plus, since 2021 he has a .971 OPS versus lefties. Smith is one of the top catchers when it comes to wielding a bat. He's slashed .289/.401/.496, and since 2021 his OPS versus lefties in .866. I fully assume Taylor will be in the starting lineup Friday with a lefty on the mound. He has 12 homers and seven stolen bases in 64 games, and he has an .837 OPS versus left-handers in 2023.
