This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Even the best teams in baseball lose 40% of the time, which makes moneyline wagers all the more dangerous. I have an affinity for player props and over/unders. While even Mike Trout gets out 7 out of 10 times, the odds can be more favorable on player props in particular if you are willing to sift through all the data. In regard to over/under bets, the analysis is simpler. Focus mainly on the starting pitchers and the park. The rest will fall into place.
With so many games in the afternoon, today's article will focus on the early contests of the slate. I will also attempt to sprinkle in some bonus bets, usually longshot wagers, in the section titled "Swing for the Fences".
12:10 p.m. Phillies (Zach Eflin)/Mets (Jacob deGrom) under 7 (-115). There are three certainties in life; death, taxes, and the Mets failing to score runs for Jacob deGrom. In two starts this season, deGrom has allowed one earned run. The Mets have scored a measly three runs total over that span. They lost both contests.
But this inability score for deGrom runs much deeper. Over the last four seasons, deGrom has a 2.06 ERA. The Mets are 36-42 in those outings. A mind-boggling statistic. So while we won't recommend the Mets moneyline in a deGrom start, the under is a figure that looks appetizing, even as the lowest figure on today's slate by one run.
The Phillies have scored just four runs in three games at CitiField versus the Mets; the ballpark in Queens has suppressed more runs than any other park in a small sample size this season. In addition, it will be cold, wet and possibly rainy. If the game plays, the under looks ideal.
Swing for the Fences Bonus Player Prop: Michael Conforto has had a dreadful start to the season, but he has hit Phillies starter Zach Eflin pretty well in the past. In fact, Conforto has homered three times in 26 at-bats against Eflin. As a result, it could be a fun long shot to sprinkle some change on Conforto to smack a home run (+650 on BetMGM).
12:35 p.m. Padres (Chris Paddack)/Pirates (Mitch Keller) over 8 (-110). Here are the run totals for the Pirates' last nine games: 6, 12, 8, 8, 10, 6, 15, 15, 8. Chris Paddack has lasted just four innings in each of his first two starts. Mitch Keller had one good outing and one lousy performance, both against the Cubs. The caveat here is that the Cubs are averaging the fewest runs per game in the entire MLB. Even without Fernando Tatis, the Padres have been winning plenty of contests and scoring runs as well.
Swing for the Fences Bonus Player Prop: To piggyback off of our main action, there are currently favorable odds on BetMGM for either pitcher to give up more than 2.5 runs.
12:35 p.m. Mariners (Marco Gonzales)/Orioles (Matt Harvey) over 7.5. The M's and O's will play a doubleheader today, so remember that these games will only be seven innings. Odds are currently not being given on most sites, but if they do, this first game certainly seems like a spot to smash the over. This is a pitching matchup only a mother could love. The Orioles have hit .288 versus lefties thus far in 2021. Baltimore is also 5-0 in hitting the over at home in the friendly hitting confines of Camden Yards. The home park for the Orioles is providing the biggest bump in home runs in baseball by far thus far, even over Coors Field in Colorado. Both teams should be well-rested and ready to take advantage.
