This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article: 3-1, +1.6
Overall: 94-75-1, +6.35
Braves at Orioles, 1:05 p.m. EDT
Touki Toussaint vs. John Means
The Orioles have lost 17 in a row now and just one of those games was within two runs, which was Saturday. The Braves are on an incredible run in August, going 15-3, including eight in a row. While the opponents have been the Orioles, Marlins and Nationals in the recent road stretch, the Braves have scored nearly seven runs per game, with a .269 average, 19 percent strikeout rate, and 11.4 percent walk rate. They have outscored their opponents 55-24 in that stretch (6.9 to 3.0). The Orioles have been outscored -46 in the 17-game losing streak ( to 2.7).
John Means got off to a great start this year, but his last 60 days have not been good. He has a 6.10 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. I will continue to go against the Orioles when laying -1.5 runs is at -125 or better.
BET: Braves -1.5 (-105 FanDuel) for 1 RWBuck
Marlins at Reds, 1:10 p.m.
Sandy Alcantara vs. Vladimir Gutierrez
Normally I never look at unders in Cincinnati, but in this case we have two solid starting pitchers and a very weak Miami offense. The total opened at 9 and quickly went to 8.5. The side opened -170 on the Reds and dropped significantly to -130. This shows strong money on Alcantara and the under.
Gutierrez has been solid in his last five starts, going 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 28/9 K/BB. Alcantara is a much better pitcher at home and got bombed at Coors on Aug. 6 for 10 earned runs. Aside from that start, he has allowed just one earned run against the Braves, Padres and Yankees.
Most of the time I would look at the under in the first five innings here, but just in case I am going the full game on this for the insurance of 8.5 runs. I can see this being a 6-2 or 5-3 type game and in case the runs come early, the cushion is there for us.
BET: Under 8.5 runs (-110 BetMGM) for 1 RWBuck
Giants at Athletics, 4:07 p.m. EDT
The total on this game opened as high as 8.5 and immediately went to 8, with some indication it could continue to drop and hit 7.5. The best pitching matchup of the day in a great pitchers ballpark will do that to a total.
Webb since May 11: 6-0, 60.1 innings, 1.64 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 65 K , 13 BB. In those 11 starts he has never allowed more than two runs and in six it has been one run or less.
Montas since July 8: 42.2 innings, 2.74 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 12.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 57 strikeouts.
I have been touting Logan Webb for a while now and the train will continue. Montas has always been a better pitcher at home and I can see this being a 1-0 type game after five innings.
BET: Under 4 runs first 5 innings (-105 BetMGM) for 1 RWBuck
Dodgers vs. Mets, 4:10 p.m. EDT
David Price vs. Marcus Stroman
The Mets have lost six in a row to the Dodgers by a combined score of 33-16. They are a dismal 5-15 in August with a 2-11 record on the road, hitting just .208. With a lot of the games being one run, I do not want to lay the typical -1.5 runs here, but will just go with the Mets under instead.
BET: Mets under 3.5 (-120 BetMGM) for 1 RWBuck
