This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 3-0, 2.60 RW Bucks
Season: 9-8, -0.35 RW Bucks
We have a full day of baseball Sunday, and I'm focusing on a couple of earlier matchups that feature a juxtaposition of traditionally average pitchers off to atypically strong starts and two would-be staff aces who have struggled at times early this season. After a strong showing my last time out, I'll hope to keep the hot streak going with another three wagers Sunday.
Odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Royals at Tigers, 1:10 pm EDT
Starting Pitchers: Danny Duffy vs. Michael Fulmer
The Pick: Royals -122 for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Royals Over 4.0 runs (-110) for 1 RWBuck
Duffy is pitching at what is arguably a career-best level over his first three starts, going 2-1 with a 0.50 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 18 frames. He's also stranding runners at a 91.4 percent clip, and he allowed just a single earned run in 12 combined innings versus the talented lineups of the Rays and Angels the last two times out. The Tigers are batting an MLB-low .179/.245/.269 and .233 wOBA versus southpaws, with a league-high 32.7 percent strikeout rate.
Fulmer had a career-high 8.78 ERA and 2.06 WHIP last season, and he regressed a bit in his last two starts (5.00 ERA in nine total innings) after impressing in his first three trips to the mound. The Royals own a minuscule 12.6 percent strikeout rate and .373 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last week of play (135 plate appearances) and also get to face a Tigers bullpen that has a 6.21 ERA and .361 wOBA allowed this season.
Reds at Cardinals, 2:15 p.m.
Starting Pitchers: Luis Castillo vs. Jack Flaherty
The Pick: Over 7.0 runs (-110) for 1 RWBuck
Castillo has had only one good outing in his first four starts, as he's given up eight, four and three runs in his other three trips to the mound. His 4.44 xERA is considerably better than his average figure of 6.05, but he's still stranding a career-low 49.2 percent of hitters while recording a middling 7.5 K/9 and allowing a career-high 1.4 HR/9. Hitters are clearly getting good wood on the ball against him, as evidenced by a career-high 90 mph average exit velocity allowed and the fact he's already allowed five barrels in 66 batted-ball events after giving up eight all last season on 178 BBEs.
Flaherty is also a pitcher with the talent to frequently look like a staff ace, but he was poor against the one truly powerful lineup he faced (the Reds) and gave up five runs (two earned) to the Nats his last time out. In contrast to Castillo, Flaherty's 4.84 xERA dwarfs his actual figure (3.80), and his 4.35 xFIP also outpaces his 3.75 FIP. Hitters are squaring up on him as well, as seen in his career-high average exit velocity allowed (91.9 mph), barrel percentage (8.5) and hard-hit percentage (42.4) per Statcast.
The clincher on the over for me is the collective .318/.366/.686 batting line the Cards bats own against Castillo in 163 plate appearances, as well as the 5.66 ERA and .326 wOBA that Cincy relievers have allowed.
