This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article: 3-1, +2.15
Overall: 50-26, +16.56
My first Saturday article of the year has me taking a different approach than my normal routine as I focus on the evening slate. There is not much in the way of strikeout props except for one I really like, but I am finding some huge trends on run lines and over/unders. I will stress that shopping around for the best lines is key as some of the totals I like you can find 0.5 run differentials.
Astros at Indians, 7:15 p.m. EDT
On Friday, we saw Lance McCullers carve up the Indians, who were without Eddie Rosario and Jose Ramirez. It is a weak lineup with a lot of strikeout potential, and I like Odorizzi to get over his prop of 5.5 strikeouts. Another factor is I think the Astros will pound Indians pitching, allowing Odorizzi to go deeper in the game. The only weakness the Astros have is their bullpen, so if Odorizzi has a decent lead he will get to the number.
I also like the Astros on the run line and I have been betting them that way most of the year when they are -150 favorites or greater. They are the best offense in baseball and putting up five to six runs is normal. I do not see how the Indians get more than two to three runs Saturday.
BET: Odorizzi over 5.5 strikeouts (+120) for 1 RWBuck
BET: Astros -1.5 runs (-105) for 1 RWBuck
Giants at Diamondbacks, 10:10 p.m. EDT
Sammy Long vs. Jake Faria
Much like the Astros, I love the Giants on the run line and getting the odds down to close to even money. The Diamondbacks are the worst team in baseball, and this is a division game for the Giants, so they are motivated. The D-backs are just 13-25 at home straight up and 7-22 as home dogs. The Giants put up 11 runs on them Friday, and I look for more of the same Saturday.
BET: Giants -1.5 runs (-105) for 1 RWBuck
Orioles at Angels, 10:07 p.m. EDT
Jorge Lopez vs. Alex Cobb
You will see a theme in these writeups — TRENDS. I am going with trends on all four games in a big way. I have written up the Angels team totals or game totals to go over a lot recently, and more of the same Saturday. Both teams pitching is suspect and the Angels' ballpark plays incredible toward left-handed batters. Just look at Shohei Ohtani and Jared Walsh this year. The Orioles can put up runs themselves as both teams combined for 15 runs Friday night.
The Angels are a whopping 21-8 to the over in 29 home games as favorites; and 15-4 to the over in their last 19.
BET: Over 9 runs (Bet MGM -120) for 1 RWBuck
Rangers at Mariners, 10:10 p.m. EDT
Jordan Lyles vs. Marco Gonzales
I loved the under last night in this game, which hovered around eight to 8.5 runs. Unfortunately, the game ended up in extra innings and landed on nine runs total in a 3-1 game in the top of the seventh inning.
The number gets back up to nine runs Saturday, and I will go back to the well once again. The Mariners are 11-2-1 to the under in 14 games as home favorites. Marco Gonzales is also a much better pitcher at home vs. on the road (3.81 ERA vs. 6.98 ERA; 1.24 WHIP vs. 1.55 WHIP).
BET: Under 9 runs (DraftKings +118) for 1 RWBuck
