This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article 3-5 units -2.45
Overall 53-36 +8.81
The last two articles have gone a combined 3-10. With that being said, I am going back to my bread and butter which are strikeout props (which were 3-1 yesterday). That is where I have had the most success this year and I come back with 4 plays today – 3 overs and 1 under.
San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals 6:05pm et
Kevin Gausman vs. Kwang Hyun Kim
Gausman and the Giants come into the game as a huge home favorite at -220. Oddsmakers are now giving the Giants some respect. The total in the game is also low at 7.5. Gausman has averaged 7.3 strikeouts per game and has only had five starts at home. His numbers in those starts are 41 strikeouts, 5 walks, 2.31 ERA, 0.57 WHIP in 35 innings.
Even though the Cardinals only have a 19.6% strikeout rate in this split (vs. right-handed pitchers on the road last 30 days), they are not a good offensive team on the road. I think the number is a tad low because of the Cardinals low strikeout rate, but Gausman's numbers are also low because of the limited amount of starts at home. I like for him to get at least seven to eight strikeouts today.
BET – Gausman over 6.5 strikeouts (+115, Bet MGM) for 1 RW buck
Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins 6:10 pm ET
Walker Buehler vs. Trevor Rogers
Late addition to the article as I did have them as a potential play on the under 7.5 for the game. The Dodgers lineup is without Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, and Cody Bellinger. That is enough for me to pull the trigger.
BET - Under 7.5 runs (Bet MGM, -115) ; it is 7 most other sportsbooks.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets 7:10 pm et
Brandon Woodruff vs. Tylor Megill
This is about the right number on Woodruff at 7.5 strikeouts. The question is whether or not he will land on 8 or 6. The Brewers are a -130 home favorite against a Mets team that has been one of the best in baseball at home, especially as an underdog.
Woodruff has averaged 7.4 strikeouts per start, but the low total and ballpark should help him get to at least 8 or 9 in this matchup. His strikeout rate of 31.1% and the Mets strikeout rate (26.9%) in this split put him right at a projected 7.5 for me tonight. He has gone over 7.5 strikeouts in 4 out of his last 6 starts.
BET – Woodruff over 7.5 strikeouts (+115, DraftKings) for 1 RW buck
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers 8:05 PM ET
Intially when I saw 5.5 as the strikeout prop for Allard, it felt high. But after digging into the numbers, I feel it is spot on or even a little low. The Tigers have struck out a league high 29.1% in this split (Road / Left-handed pitcher) and Allard has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate. This Tigers lineup is not very good outside of Jonathon Schoop, Robbie Grossman, and Erik Haase.
Neither team is playing for much, but the Rangers are a decent size home favorite at -150 vs. a very weak pitcher on the other side, Wily Peralta. Initially, I liked the under 4.5 strikeouts on Peralta, but the juice of -149 was too high for my liking. I like the fact Allard should be working with a lead and the expectation of him getting into the sixth inning will help get him over the 5.5 strikeout number.
BET – Allard over 5.5 strikeouts (+126, FanDuel) for 1 RW buck
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels 9:38 PM ET
Sometimes you have a make an ugly pick and this is one of them. I am a diehard Red Sox fan and I have seen Martin Perez pitch this year. He is inconsistent and can get knocked around. But in this spot, the strikeout prop of 3.5 has been dropped so low that I have to look at it. I do think Perez will go at least 5 innings tonight which is a plus, and the Angels best hitters are both left-handed. The fact the Red Sox are only -115 favorites on the road against a relatively unknown pitcher shows the lack of confidence in Perez.
He has thrown at least 4 strikeouts in 8 out of 15 starts, and got 5 against the Angels in Boston on May 15th. His numbers on the road have been significant better with a 4.60 ERA and 1.63 WHIP at Fenway vs. 2.10 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. It could be a rough one getting to four tonight, but I do like those strong home/road splits.
BET – Perez over 3.5 strikeouts (-112, FanDuel) for 1 RW buck
