This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 1-2, -1.11 RWBucks
Season: 37-53, -20.57 RWBucks
One of the biggest changes in the quarter-century I've been covering baseball is the shift to a near-constant news cycle. That's been ramped up to a fever pitch this year, with a daily spate of injury updates, both major and minor, that make tracking availability and sussing out the quality of bullpens and figuring out lineups a far greater burden than it was in the 1990s, and surely for most of baseball history prior to that.
I took Thursday almost completely off from watching baseball. It was a light slate, with 11 games scattered throughout the day. I followed the games on my phone, tweeted and Slacked a bit, eventually wrote late in the day, but I stepped away from the news cycle. I watched the PGA Championship most of the day, throwing myself into tracking my golfers in the fantasy leagues I play in. (Don't ask.) I was up late reading, then slept in...and when I woke up today I felt like I'd taken a month off.
Josh Reddick landed where? Brandon Crawford did what to the Reds? Creole Jose Marmolejos was what? Jason Heyward hurt what now? Logan Webb, too? James Kaprelian! The transactions log for May 20 at MLB.com runs to 46 lines, and yesterday was not an unusually busy day for this era. Staying on top of the information flow is a far greater challenge than it was for most of baseball history, and that's even considering we have a lot more access than we did when baseball news all came from the agate type in the local paper and a weekly Sporting News.
It's actually less about baseball than it is about communications and travel; teams can keep in touch with their affiliates around the clock, and they can move players to and from them far easier. The Braves' Triple-A affiliate is in the Atlanta suburbs. (Come to think of it, so are the Braves.) The Mets can call up a player from their Double-A team and get him to the Citi Field with a Metrocard. The recent realignment of the minor leagues was in part driven by MLB's desire to end awkward affiliate relationships that made it hard for some teams to get their minor leaguers to the majors on short notice.
I've written in a few places that I don't think this is a positive. I do this for a living, and once a day I see a player on my screen who I have never heard of before. Johneshwy Fargas? Bailey Ober? Ivan Castillo? Looking at box scores some days it feels like I'm being punked, with fake names slipped in to test me. "Oh, sure, P.J. Higgins. Of course."
None of these players are going to move your bets, but they're symptoms of the larger issue, which is that what we blithely call the Mets or Twins or Padres now changes on a daily basis, and it's essential to know what those changes are, who is available, who is rostered, and how it could affect that night's game. As you're making your picks today, check Rotowire's news updates, check those transaction logs. There are reasons to lose bets, but "I didn't know X" shouldn't be one of them.
7 p.m. White Sox (Carlos Rodon)/Montgomery (Jordan Yankees) over 8.5 (-106)
Rodon has made six starts against four teams. Those four teams rank 25th, 27th, 29th, and 30th in wOBA against left-handed pitchers. Even fighting injuries, the Yankees are a massive step up from that tier. Rodon has pitched well, but he hasn't faced anything like the Yankees at the Stadium on a warm May night. On the flip side, there's the White Sox's unreal success against lefties, and the expected return of Jose Abreu to the lineup. The only thing holding me back is these teams' power bullpens. 1.5 RWBucks.
7 p.m. Mets (Marcus Stroman) -103 over Marlins (Jordan Holloway)
As with the Yankee game, this was a close call between taking the side and the total, in this case, the under. These are two of the worst teams in baseball against right-handed pitching, 24th and 28th in wOBA, and as noted above, the Mets are running through a lot of names just to put a lineup on the field. Holloway comes in with a 13/10 K/BB in 16 2/3 innings, so the Mets have a pretty big edge on the mound. 1 RWBuck.
8 p.m. Astros (Tyler Ivey)/Rangers (Kyle Gibson) under 9 (-121)
Tyler Ivey is another one of those new names popping up, a 25-year-old righty who was the Astros' ninth-rated prospect coming into the season, and had a 7.11 ERA at Triple-A prior to his call-up. That's what's pushing the number here over 9 in a game involving a Rangers team that hasn't scored since Tuesday. I might take the under with Phil Ivey on the mound. 1 RWBuck.
8:15 p.m. Cubs (Kyle Hendricks) -120 over Cardinals (Carlos Martinez)
The Cardinals, on a good day, are going to have a pretty big platoon split, and they haven't had many good days at the plate in 2021 -- 20th in wOBA against right-handers. Kyle Hendricks's season is a mystery, with his usually fantastic control down two clicks and his velocity wandering into "uh-oh" territory. He's already given up more homers, a league-leading 11, than he did all of 2020 in twice as many innings. He's looked better in May, with two strong outings wrapped around a BABIP nightmare. I'll get on the train. This is another 51/49 call between the side and the over. 1 RWBuck.
9:30 p.m. Athletics (James Kaprielian) +102 over Angels (Jose Quintana)
The Angels' lineup without Mike Trout is just ugly, with three MLB hitters wedged into a waiver wire. Shohei Ohtani looked terrible on the mound Wednesday and struck out in all three of his at-bats Thursday, so there's real concern about his health. The Angels can't lose anyone else, and even with Ohtani, they're a strong fade right now. Kaprelian missed two full seasons on his way to the majors, but is finally healthy and threw five strong innings in his only other MLB start this year. 1.5 RWBucks.
