This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
The Pittsburgh Pirates Rise to the Top of the National League Standings
For the better part of two decades, the Pittsburgh Pirates have been the cellar dwellers of the National League. Since the start of the 2020 season, the Pirates have lost 250 games, which is the second-most in MLB, and only trails the Washington Nationals with 251 losses. The Milwaukee Brewers have had the best record in the NL Central at 226-188 since 2020, but currently find themselves trailing the Pirates by a game in the standings. In fact, Pittsburgh is tied with the NL East's Atlanta Braves at 16-8 for the best record in the National League. Having won twice as many games as they have lost is a rare and terrific accomplishment by the Pirates but is a microcosm of the 162-game MLB season.
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The Pirates are playing significantly better baseball on the offensive and defensive end this season. Their offense is scoring an average of 4.92 runs per game, which is a dramatic increase of 1.27 RPG over their 2022 season average. There are three other teams with even greater increases as the chart below reveals, but in terms of percentage increase in offensive production, no other team is close to the Pirates. The Pirates are allowing an average of 3.92 RPG, ranking third best since 2004 and is a far cry from the 5.04 they allowed last season. Only the Rockies (5.27 RPG) and Nationals (5.42 RPG allowed more runs per game last season.
The Pirates' upcoming schedule will determine if they are playoff contenders or pretenders. They had their 7-game win streak halted in the first game of a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday. Up next will the lowly Washington Nationals who will host the Pirates for three games starting Friday. When the calendar rolls over to May, their schedule gets quite difficult with three-game sets against the Tampa Bay Rays (20-4) and Toronto Blue Jays (15-9). They do get an easier 3-game set at home against the Colorado Rockies (8-17) before having to take on the upstart Baltimore Orioles (15-8) for three games at Camden Yards. At the end of this stretch of 15 games, we will have a lot of answers about the Pirates and if their early success is sustainable. Whatever you do in the betting markets, do not fade the Pirates blindly.
Currently, the Pirates lead MLB with a 42% return on investment (ROI). Only one team in the past 10 seasons, the San Francisco Giants, earned an ROI of 20% so the Pirate's current pace is unsustainable especially now that the market has priced them at an average of –127 favorite on the money line through 24 games. The Pirates can still win more games than they lose and their ROI will steadily decline because they are favored in more games than not. So, there will be solid betting opportunities to fade the Pirates in May.
A Highly Profitable Situational Betting System
This betting system has done quite well since 2004, producing a 44-22 record, averaging a –157 bet that has produced a 21% ROI and has made the $1,000 per game bettor a $14,000 profit. The requirements are to bet against any team in the month of May that lost 95 or more games in the previous season, is currently priced as an underdog on the money line, and has a winning record. This system has done well using the run line posting a 32-34 record averaging 135 wagers and earning a 17% ROI making the $1,000 per game bettor a $16,250 profit.
So, the only team that meets these requirements will be the Pirates and I will keep track of when they are on the 'bet against' radar on my Twitter feed @JohnRyanSports1. Keep in mind, that this system is not predicting a losing record month of May for the Pirates, but rather specific situations that provide an optimum betting opportunity.
