This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for
Wednesday, September 11
- Year-to-Date Record: 153-154-1
- Prior Article: 2-1 (+0.70 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. When summer temperatures and humidity rise, scoring may see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Don't place any bets on the best online sportsbooks without first ensuring you have the most up-to-date and competitive MLB odds.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Colorado Rockies 
at Detroit Tigers 
I went with the Tigers yesterday in this spot and they won 11-0. This looks to be more of the same as the Rockies are running out another bad starting pitcher in Tanner Gordon. Gordon has a 7.55 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 31 innings with eight home runs allowed.
The Rockies sticking with their usual form have a 66 wRC+ on the road, which is second-to-last in the past month. They have a 33 percent strikeout rate against right-handers on the road.
Casey Mize has looked better in recent starts. I would look at his earned runs prop under and strikeout prop over. I would also look at some Tigers home run props in this game as Gordon will probably give up a couple (Riley Greene, Colt Keith). This one looks as ugly as yesterday.
MLB Picks for Rockies at Tigers
- Tigers -1.5 for 1.5 Units (+123 BetRivers)
Tampa Bay Rays 
at Philadelphia Phillies 
I was on the OVER in this game last night because both starting pitchers had been torched lately, and it played out that way. This is a different matchup with Zack Wheeler at home. He has been on another incredible run recently going 4-1 in his last seven starts with a 1.60 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. Shane Baz has been solid for the Rays in his last eight starts with a 2.82 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
I wanted to get on Wheeler somehow without laying -190 and the Rays' team total in the F5 is just too low at 1.5 even at +124. I am not a big fan of laying -1.5 runs with a matchup like this and the low total even with Wheeler as a strong favorite.
This has a feel of a 4-1, 4-2 type of game. I like the Phillies to win, but taking them to get to four runs first is just about even money. The reason is that the Rays bat first, so you will always get great value on the home team in this spot.
MLB Picks for Rays at Phillies
- Phillies Race to 4 runs for 1 Unit (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Atlanta Braves 
at Washington Nationals 
There has been a common scenario lately in which a pitcher gets off to a great first-half start but then unravels. That is the case with Jake Irvin:
- March 31-July 4: 106.1 innings, 2.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 94 Strikeouts, 24 Walks, 0.8 HR/9
- July 9-Sept 5: 60.0 innings, 6.90 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 46 Strikeouts, 19 Walks, 2.4 HR/9
It is the same thing we keep seeing with the hard contact going through the roof on a pitcher who is beyond their innings pitched in a season. This is also a great spot because we get the Braves on the road with a strong starting pitcher in Max Fried, so the game total is low at 7.5, which helps the Braves' team total.
- Braves Team Total Over 4.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Tigers -1.5 for 1.5 Units (+123 BetRivers)
- Phillies Race to 4 Runs for 1 Unit (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Braves Over 4.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
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