This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets at FanDuel Sportsbook Tonight: MLB Picks, Player Props and Parlays for Wednesday, September 28
RotoWire.com's Juan Carlos Blanco identifies his MLB bets and MLB player props to target on FanDuel Sportsbook today.
Last article: 3-1 (+3.30 RW Bucks)
Season Record: 94-87-4 (-3.11 RW Bucks)
I'm focusing on a pair of NL matchups Wednesday night in which I'm counting on some impressive pitching performances by a couple of highly proven arms.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets
Jesus Luzardo has been in undeniably strong form over his last few starts, seemingly rediscovering his early-career mojo from his Oakland days with six quality starts in his last seven trips to the mound. The left-hander does have a tricky assignment on his hands Wednesday night, however, as the Mets took him to task the one previous time he saw them this season for his one poor start in that sample. New York knocked Luzardo around for five runs on six hits over 3.1 innings, an outing in which he also plunked a pair of batters and issued three walks.
Taijuan Walker has consistently frustrated the Marlins this season, posting a 4-0 record, 2.23 ERA and 35:6 K:BB across 32.1 innings in five starts overall. The veteran righty has also been very good at home all season with a 5-1 mark, .227 BAA, 0.7 HR/9 and .283 wOBA in 61.2 frames there. The Marlins have a 25.0 percent strikeout rate and middling .304 wOBA against righties on the road in the last month as well, and New York has been a nearly unbeatable proposition at Citi Field this season when it comes to the moneyline on the first 5 innings.
MLB Best Bets for Marlins at Mets
- Mets moneyline – 1st 5 innings (-158) for 1.58 RW Bucks
- Taijuan Walker Over 4.5 strikeouts thrown (-144) for 1.44 RW Bucks
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Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Julio Urias has mostly been money against the Padres during his career, holding current Friars bats to a collective .159/.259/.317 slash line in 143 career plate appearances. The southpaw has been lights out since his last start before the All-Star break as well, furnishing a 10-1 record, 1.33 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 0.8 HR/9 across 74.1 innings. That sample includes back-to-back starts against the Padres earlier this month where he recorded a pair of wins while allowing just three earned runs over 13 innings. San Diego has been a lackluster offense at home most of the season as well, averaging only 3.8 runs on 7.4 hits per game in a park that favors pitchers.
Joe Musgrove is enjoying another strong season but has had his share of struggles in the second half with keeping the ball in the park, including against these same Dodgers. The veteran righty has righted the ship over his last two starts with impressive showings against the Diamondbacks and Cardinals, but prior to that, he'd posted a 5.85 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 2.7 HR/9 in his previous four starts, including one against L.A. where he yielded four runs on six hits, including two homers, over 5.1 innings. Justin Turner has particularly given Musgrove trouble in the past as well with a .400 average, including three homers, in 17 career encounters.
Update: With Turner now out of the lineup Wednesday, I'm pivoting to Julio Urias Under 4.5 strikeouts. While Urias has had plenty of success overall against the Friars as noted earlier, he's recorded a combined seven strikeouts against them in his last two starts and San Diego has a modest 17.7 percent strikeout rate against lefties at home in the last month.
MLB Best Bets for Dodgers at Padres
- Dodgers -0.5 – 1st 5 innings (+104) for 1 RW Buck
- Julio Urias Under 4.5 strikeouts thrown (-112) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Mets moneyline – 1st 5 innings (-158) for 1.58 RW Bucks
- Taijuan Walker Over 4.5 strikeouts thrown (-144) for 1.44 RW Bucks
- Dodgers -0.5 – 1st 5 innings (+104) for 1 RW Buck
- Julio Urias Under 4.5 strikeouts thrown (-112) for 1 RW Buck
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