This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for Tuesday, April 30
There will be no shortage of action with 16 games scheduled to be played across baseball Tuesday. A packed slate means a bevy of props to sift through. Let's highlight three that could prove to be profitable.
Mike Barner's season record: 6-5 (-0.75 units)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals Best Bets
Jose Berrios will be facing the Royals for the second time in as many starts. Berrios logged five innings in the first start against them, allowing two runs along the way. He only threw 67 pitches, so he could have gone deeper had the game not been called because of rain. Prior to that, he had logged at least six innings in each of his first five starts.
Berrios has been excellent all season, allowing two or fewer runs in each of his six starts. He has done a terrific job of keeping hitters off base, recording a 1.04 WHIP. This game being played in Toronto could be a boost for Berrios. The Royals have a .753 OPS at home this season, but just a .614 OPS on the road. Look for Berrios to pitch at least six innings again.
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MLB Picks for Blue Jays vs. Royals
- Jose Berrios over 17.5 outs recorded (-160) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 unit
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Best Bets
Freddy Peralta was roughed up by the Pirates in his last outing, allowing five runs over 4.2 innings. He recorded five strikeouts, which marked the first time he had fewer than seven strikeouts in a start this season. His strikeout rate sits at 33.3 percent, which is in line with his career strikeout rate of 31.2 percent.
The Rays' lineup has been scuffling along, posting the eighth-worst OPS in baseball. Brandon Lowe (oblique) and Josh Lowe (hamstring) are both on the injured list, leaving them without two of their more dangerous hitters. As a team, they have struck out the seventh-most times in baseball. This is a great matchup for Peralta to rack up strikeouts.
MLB Picks for Brewers vs. Rays
- Freddy Peralta over 6.5 strikeouts (-150) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 unit
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians Best Bets
Carlos Carrasco is a shell of the pitcher that he was during his prime with Cleveland. He struggled through 20 starts with the Mets last season, finishing with a 6.80 ERA and a 5.86 FIP. His strikeout rate dropped to 15.8 percent, while his 9.1 percent walk rate was the third-highest mark of his career.
Back with the Guardians, Carrasco has an 18.9 percent strikeout rate and a 12.3 percent walk rate through his first five starts. In three of those five outings, he issued at least three walks. Expect him to be very careful with the likes of Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez, so another outing with multiple walks could be in the cards.
MLB Picks for Astros vs. Guardians
- Carlos Carrasco over 1.5 walks allowed (-150) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 unit
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Jose Berrios over 17.5 outs recorded (-160) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 unit
- Freddy Peralta over 6.5 strikeouts (-150) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 unit
- Carlos Carrasco over 1.5 walks allowed (-150) at DraftKings Sportsbook for 1 unit
