This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Betting Picks Today: MLB Picks and Props for Saturday, May 6
JohnnyVTV is back in action. The Saturday MLB slate features some pretty good pitchers. Let's see who has the best matchups.
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Minnesota Twins at 
Cleveland Guardians
If you look up who the best pitchers in the MLB have been to start 2023, Sonny Gray would most certainly be on the short list. Gray has been off the charts this year with his 0.77 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 41:12 K:BB. His career trajectory has been a little bit bizarre considering every other team stint he has shows the capability this Vandy product possesses. After looking like a Cy Young contender in Oakland early in his career, he nearly flamed out because of a horrible two-year stretch with the Yankees. After a great first year in Cincy, the team moved on because he was showing big-time regression. Now, as a Twin, Sonny looks to be back to his old self.
As I predicted in the preseason, the 19-14 Twins are currently running the AL Central, and the pitching has been a huge reason why. Along with Joe Ryan, Gray has given this team a chance to win nearly every time he takes the mound. In his six starts, the Twins have won five times. With the Guardians on a three-game skid, and losing five of their last six, this sets up as another prime matchup for the AL Central front-runners.
Cleveland will be throwing rookie Logan Allen for just the third time all season. Allen has been solid thus far with only three earned runs and nine hits allowed over 11 innings of work to go along with a robust 16:3 K:BB. With the Minnesota offense in a bit of an inconsistent stretch, there could be plenty of opportunities to see this game as a lower-scoring affair. Against lefties, the Twins are only hitting .194 on the season.
In a game where there are several looks I like, I can't help but stare at one in particular. The Twins' first five moneyline is sitting at -120. Minnesota is 4-1-1 in the first five in Sonny Gray's starts this year. Given the pitching duel we are expected to see, the under is also a viable option. At the end of the day, I'm taking the better pitcher and offense to edge out this pesky Cleveland team.
MLB Best Bets for Twins at Guardians
- Twins F5 moneyline (DraftKings -120)
Chicago White Sox at 
Cincinnati Reds
Nick Lodolo was drawing some serious attention in his first few starts of the year. After cooling off a bit, it's pummeled his chances to be an NL Cy Young contender. As many people know, Hunter Greene was my Cy Young longshot this season, but I do know others were actually interested in Lodolo. The Reds' lefty has been having a tough go of it lately, allowing 17 earned runs, 26 hits and seven home runs in his last three outings. Does Lodolo have enough juice to strike out six batters though?
The White Sox are brutal this year. While they do have some pop in that lineup, they have plenty of strikeout-prone bats in there. Despite being middle of the pack in overall strikeouts so far, seven of their key players have recorded at least 20 punchouts. And despite Lodolo's recent struggles, there aren't too many lefties the White Sox will see this season that have as an electric of an arsenal as the TCU product holds. The only two power lefty arms Chicago has seen this year, Shane McClanahan and Yusei Kikuchi, fared well against them. Kikuchi struck out eight over 5.2 scoreless. McClanahan only had five Ks through five innings, but that's because the Rays were up huge and pulled Sugar Shane early.
Lodolo has only been underwhelming in the K department lately because he hasn't gone deep into ballgames. Nevertheless, he still has 44 punchies in just 30.2 innings and has racked up at least six fans in all but one start. With a dangerous repertoire featuring a near triple-digit heater, I believe six punchouts is a feasible number this afternoon. For anybody feeling adventurous, there is a 6.5 K prop at +116 to the over on FanDuel. In this case, I would rather lay a heavier vig for one less K.
MLB Best Bets for Twins at Guardians
- Lodolo over 5.5 strikeouts (DraftKings -145)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Twins F5 moneyline (DraftKings -120)
- Lodolo over 5.5 strikeouts (DraftKings -145)
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