This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Wednesday, July 10
YTD 112-106-1
Prior article 2-2 (-0.20 units)
SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at home/road and vs. RHP/LHP over the last 30 days to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the summer, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5-inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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New York Yankees 
at Tampa Bay Rays 
Baseball is a game of streaks and right now the Yankees are on a bad one. I went against them last night taking the Rays OVER, but even considered them at plus money, which they won. I will continue to go against the Yankees, but this is also getting the Rays at home for a small price.
Marcus Stroman is part of the problem as his numbers over his last six starts are terrible – 5.74 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 2.0 HR/9. The scary part is the amount of walks and hard contact that he is allowing, because he usually minimizes both. Zach Eflin has great home/road splits, which we can tap into here with a 2.43 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at home versus 5.37 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the road.
The Rays' team total on the game is 3.5, but now at -140. Their F5 team total is 2.5, but at +120. I still think they get to three runs in the first five against Stroman, especially based on his recent types of struggles.
MLB Picks for Yankees at Rays
- Rays ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -120)
- Rays OVER 2.5 F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +120)
Miami Marlins 
at Houston Astros 
The Astros are 11-4 in their last 15 home games and the Marlins are 3-7 in their last 10 overall. The huge moneyline is justified but not in a straight-up play, so we will look at the run line and it is at even money.
I am not thrilled about Framber Valdez, but the Marlins are so bad and the Astros should easily post 5-6 runs or more in this game as they have averaged 5.5 at home in their last 15.
MLB Picks for Marlins at Astros
- Astros -1.5 runs for 2 units (FanDuel +100)
Oakland Athletics 
at Boston Red Sox 
We saw an explosion of runs in last night's game with the high temperature, wind blowing out and awful road splits for Joey Estes. The same weather conditions are on tap for tonight with a slightly lower temperature, but the total opened 9.5 and moved to 10.
The Red Sox have been better against right-handed pitchers over left-handed pitchers, but JP Sears has a 4.82 ERA, 1.32 WHIP on the road with a 6.4 K/9. Boston struggles with strikeouts so the low punchout number from Sears should help them. Nick Pivetta has bad home/road splits, but he does get a ton of swing and miss. We saw Oakland strike out 15 times yesterday and Pivetta should be a strong OVER strikeout prop candidate.
The Red Sox are one of the hottest teams in baseball and look to continue the hot streak at home again tonight.
MLB Picks for Athletics at Red Sox
- Red Sox -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
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MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Rays ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -120)
- Rays OVER 2.5 F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +120)
- Astros -1.5 runs for 2 units (FanDuel +100)
- Red Sox -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
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