This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Tuesday, July 9
YTD 110-104-1
Prior article 3-1 (+3.38 units)
SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at home/road and vs. RHP/LHP over the last 30 days to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the summer, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5-inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Chicago Cubs 
at Baltimore Orioles 
I got burned laying -1.5 runs with the Orioles against the A's and I even said I was leary about it. But getting the Orioles at home against Jameson Taillon is a different story and it is at plus money. The Orioles have crushed right-handed pitching all year and the Cubs have been dreadful on the road, going 5-15 in their last 20. In a recent seven-game road trip, they posted just 3.0 runs per game.
The -154 moneyline is just a tad over my moneyline threshold, but if you wanted to go that route I would be OK with it. I always try to get as close to even money on baseball and plus money is even better. This game has 6-3 Orioles written all over it.
MLB Picks for Cubs at Orioles
- Orioles -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers +138)
New York Yankees 
at Tampa Bay Rays 
When the F5 team totals come in at 1.5 runs, it is hard to stay away especially when the OVER looks really good. There is always going to be juice to lay and usually in the -130 to -140 range, but you need to just one home run with a runner on to hit it. Unfortunately, this line moved to -160 and became unplayable when I was writing.
I have been going against Carlos Rodon and will continue to do so. The Rays are a top-5 wRC+ team against left-handed pitching in the last 30 days. Rodon did look better in his last start, but he still allowed three earned runs in 5.1 innings. His numbers in the last four starts are still awful – 10.89 ERA, 2.05 WHIP, 3.3 HR/9. The Yankees' bullpen is dead last in the last 30 days with the exception of the Rockies, which makes a full-game team total OVER the best option.
MLB Picks for Yankees at Rays
- Rays OVER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -120)
Oakland Athletics 
at Boston Red Sox 
Another potential F5 over on the team total for the road team when I saw this huge moneyline, total and weather until we see the lines and they are just too far out to play. So, knowing we have Boston -200 with a total of 10.5 runs I am looking at -1.5 at just about even money.
The Red Sox have been one of the best teams in baseball over the last month or so, and the A's have nothing else to play for before trading off most of their good players at the end of July.
Brayan Bello has struggled this year – especially at home – but has looked decent in his last two road starts. Oakland is a bottom-five team in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers on the road which should help Bello in this start. The wind is blowing out, the humidity is blistering, and the Red Sox are averaging 5.3 runs per game since May 27. Joey Estes has an extreme home/road split statline with 1.91 ERA, 0.71 WHIP at home versus 7.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP on the road.
The Red Sox's team total is a whopping 5.5 runs at -125 so I would rather lay the -1.5 runs.
MLB Picks for Athletics at Red Sox
- Red Sox -1.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +100)
Atlanta Braves 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
This is a system I rely on a lot and it is when you have two strong starting pitchers (Chris Sale versus Zac Gallen) with a total of at least 7.0 or higher. The bonus is we get Gallen at home, where he has had a huge edge in the past few years. His home/road splits are 1.72 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 0.2 HR/9 versus 4.65 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 1.5 HR/9 on the road. Sale is making a run at National League Cy Young with an 11-3 record, 2.71 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.
Both teams' offenses are not what they were in 2023, and both pitchers are in prime spots to put up a lot of zeros.
MLB Picks for Braves at Diamondbacks
- Braves/Dbacks UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -115)
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MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Orioles -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers +138)
- Rays OVER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -120)
- Red Sox -1.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +100)
- Braves/Dbacks UNDER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -115)
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