This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for
Tuesday, May 21
We're set for a full MLB schedule Tuesday, and I'm focusing on a trio of hitter props at excellent prices in my quest for a third straight winning props slate.
2024 Regular-Season Betting Record: 3-5 (-2.24 RW Bucks)
2024 Regular-Season Props Betting Record: 10-9 (+0.11 RW Bucks)
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New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians Best Bets
J.D. Martinez looks to already be in mid-season form despite his late start to the season, producing a .312/.354/.468 slash line across 82 plate appearances. The veteran proved he had plenty left in the tank last season as well over a much larger sample, as evidenced by his 33 home runs, 103 RBI and .893 OPS for the Dodgers over 113 games.
Martinez, who has six extra-base hits, eight RBI and a .341 average over his last 11 games, is in a good spot to stay hot Tuesday against a pitcher he's frequently tormented in Carlos Carrasco. Martinez owns a .370 average and 1.060 OPS against Carrasco across 28 career encounters, a sample in which he has 18 total bases and only four strikeouts.
Carrasco is also struggling early this season in his return to Cleveland after a poor campaign with the Mets in 2023 (3-8, 6.80 ERA, 1.70 WHIP). The veteran right-hander has a 5.16 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and .369 wOBA, and he's yielded a .345 average and .442 wOBA to right-handed hitters at home specifically.
Martinez's history against Carrasco and his excellent 49.1 percent hard-hit rate support the notion he could put some very good wood on the ball Tuesday and pick up at least two total bases.
MLB Picks for Mets vs Guardians
- J.D. Martinez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros Best Bets
The Angels' Griffin Canning is a quality pitcher who seems to be in the midst of figuring things out after a rough start, as he's generated a 1.53 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the 17.2 innings covering his last three starts.
However, the right-hander does not miss many bats and is still carrying some worrisome numbers, considering he sports a .273 xBA, .354 xwOBA and career-high 10.2 percent barrel rate allowed. Canning has particularly had trouble with left-handed hitters, surrendering a .367 average, .427 wOBA and 2.5 HR/9 to that handedness on the road.
That makes Yordan Alvarez a particularly troublesome matchup for Canning, and the 26-year-old slugger already checks in with a .326 average and .871 OPS over his last 11 games. That stretch has pulled Alvarez out of an early-season funk where he was running into some bad luck when putting the ball in play, and he's now boasting a massive .538 xSLG and .387 xwOBA for the season.
Alvarez has a single, a homer and two walks across eight career encounters with Canning, and he's also traditionally been a very good hitter against both the four-seam fastball and changeup, the two pitches Canning most often throws to left-handed hitters.
Houston has a high implied run total of 5.2 as of midday Tuesday, putting me in the corner of Alvarez picking up at least one RBI against either Canning or a bullpen that's pitched to a 4.94 ERA, .283 BAA and .342 wOBA versus lefty bats in May.
MLB Picks for Angels vs Astros
- Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 RBI (+110 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bets
Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt has arguably pitched better than his 1-3 record and 4.17 ERA imply, as he has a .238 xBA, .282 xwOBA and 3.07 xERA. However, the right-hander has allowed a .283 average to left-handed hitters and a .344 wOBA to that handedness on the road.
Pfaadt has also had plenty of trouble over the course of his young career with Freddie Freeman, who owns a .500 average, two doubles, a home run and only one strikeout against him across eight plate appearances.
Freeman has shown no signs of a drop-off in his secondary stats this season despite his .298 average – an excellent figure for most hitters – actually representing a slight downturn compared to his career norms. Freeman still sports a .478 xSLG, .388 xwOBA and 10.1 percent barrel rate, and he carries a .365 average, 1.079 OPS, .462 wOBA and 206 wRC+ versus righties at home.
With Freeman already sporting 15 multi-hit efforts on the season and Arizona relievers also pitching to a 5.48 ERA against lefty hitters the last two weeks, I like Freeman's chances of cashing this prop at an excellent price.
MLB Picks for Diamondbacks vs Dodgers
- Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Hits (+200 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- J.D. Martinez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 RBI (+110 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Hits (+200 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
