Farm Futures: Updated Prospect Rankings Mailbag

The top 400 prospect rankings, the team top 20s and the top 400 dynasty rankings are all fully updated!

Mviola24: Is there a way to see the last update and see how players jumped or fell?

I know many subscribers know about this feature, but for those who do not: You can see any prospect's ranking history in a graph if you scroll halfway down their player page, and you can also see the prospect ranking history for former prospects (I think it only goes back 5-6 years).

Mviola24: When can we expect to see Chase DeLauter (CLE) this year?

The Guardians are incredibly cheap, even relative to most big-league teams, so I wouldn't rule out them keeping him down until early June, so that they only need to pay him in arbitration three times instead of four times. April 12 is the first day they could call him up and gain an extra year of control, so sometime in the April 12-early-June range is when we'll likely see DeLauter, depending on just how cheap the Guardians plan to be with this situation.

Mviola24: Are the jumps in rankings for guys like Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Gavin Stone (LAD), Jared Jones (PIT) due to them making the MLB rosters or something else?

Making the MLB roster is a pretty big deal, and should absolutely affect a player's fantasy value, especially considering Rafaela, Stone and Jones were long shots to make the Opening Day roster when I last updated the rankings Jan. 15. And to make the Opening Day roster, that meant those three had to perform near the high end of their expected outcomes during the spring, which they all did. Jones could have blown out his elbow, Stone could have failed to separate himself from the pack, and Rafaela could have looked overmatched at the plate. Those things didn't happen, and now the teams rostering those players can get value from them right away this season, so they all pretty clearly needed bumps on this update.

AaronWade_2: Love to see Franco Aleman (CLE) added to the list. No. 144 is higher than I'd expect for a no doubt RP. Can you expand on that ranking? Do you see relief ace potential in him?

First, I want to say I completely whiffed on the podcast when discussing Aleman, saying that Emmanuel Clase will get more expensive in arbitration and the Guardians will want to trade him sooner than later. As I mentioned in the Relief Pitching Prospect Rankings article, Clase has affordable club options for 2027 and 2028, so he is cost controlled. However, there were already rumors he could get traded to the Cubs this past offseason, and I still expect Cleveland to try to cash Clase out while his value is high in the next year or so.

As to Aleman, I do see relief ace potential. When I set out to do the reliever prospect rankings, I expected to have Orion Kerkering and Emiliano Teodo as the highest ranked relief prospects, but Aleman really stuck out to me as a relatively flawless relief-pitching prospect with only Clase in his way to the ninth inning. Putting him at 144 may have been a bit much, but that high 100s range is typically where I've put my favorite relievers over the years. If you're interested in rostering minor-league relievers, Aleman is my top pick, and if you're not interested, just ignore him.

Danny J: You seem higher than most on Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) and AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL). What do you see?

I think I'm probably more involved with redraft leagues than the typical prospect analyst, so that's why I was higher on Parker Meadows (DET) all offseason than most, and that's why I'm higher now on Rafaela than most. An everyday player with 20/30 upside as early as this year, which I believe Rafaela has, needs to be ranked highly. In OBP leagues, you could downgrade Rafaela, but in AVG leagues, I think he's going to be a very steady source of 30-plus steals with double-digit homers and an average that doesn't kill you. 

I'm not really sure why I'm higher on Smith-Shawver — he seems like someone everyone could get on board with as a borderline top-25 prospect for fantasy given his youth, stuff and team context.

Paulmax: What can you tell us about Logan Evans (SEA)? He showed some good and some bad in the prospect breakout game vs. the Padres...

He was sitting at 92 mph in college and now he's sitting 95-97 mph and touching 99 mph. He also added a sweeper to what was already a deep repertoire, and he had good command as an amateur and in his brief debut last year. The unraveling in the breakout game was basically the one knock on his spring, but for him to even be starting in that game was a sign of how far he's come.

If you missed out on Evans and are in a deeper league, I got a tip after Wednesday's podcast that Brett Wichrowski (MIL) is seeing a similar jump in stuff to Evans.

Joe McHugh: Any lean or buzz about prospects who could get the "aggressive assignment" or skip complex ball like Sebastian Walcott (TEX) & Jackson Chourio (MIL)?

Walcott got an aggressive assignment to the Arizona Complex League after just nine games in the Dominican Summer League, and his new org. mate Paulino Santana (TEX) should follow the same path.

Yophery Rodriguez (MIL), Rayner Arias (SF) and Joendry Vargas (LAD) would be my top guesses for a DSL prospect potentially skipping complex ball.

Mookie666: I got my claim in for Adam Mazur (SD) based on the new rank (in James we trust). Just curious what prompted the 50 spot jump.

Mazur had been more projectable than the typical college arm, so it shouldn't come as a big surprise, but he had been sitting in the low-90s and then I realized between the January update and this spring update that he's been sitting mid-90s and touching 97 mph. He's a no-doubt starter, and that velocity suggests he should comfortably project as a No. 3 starter with a chance for more.

J_Steen17: Any thoughts on next year's FYPD class? I've heard it's not very interesting...

The guys I hear the most about are all from college, with hitters Travis Bazzana (Oregon State), Charlie Condon (Georgia), and pitchers Chase Burns (Wake Forrest), Hagen Smith (Arkansas). 

From what I gather, it's definitely a step down for fantasy from last year's class, but there's always talent, and a lot can still change in the valuations of these guys between now and the draft. Long-time readers will know that I don't follow the amateur market year-round, and really hone in on each class after the late-May update to the prospect rankings. I think my track record with the draft is still pretty strong, and it helps me to not have preconceived notions about players before their most pivotal seasons as amateurs.

Cream City Prospects: Around what range do you anticipate the top 2024 MLB Draft prospects would slot into your rankings?

There should be room for a few of them to slot into the top 25, just given the anticipated talent drain in the post-draft rankings and how much the rankings already fall off after the top 20 or so.

Ross Redcay: Other than Great American Ball Park I assume, what's holding you back on Ty Floyd (CIN)? From what I've read, the fastball is a unicorn pitch and the secondaries, though not used a ton at LSU, have flashed potential in limited use. Do you just need to see him first since he didn't pitch after the draft?

Well, GABP does factor in, and I think correctly so, but that doesn't mean Reds pitchers can't climb into the top 100 — Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo have been there in the past and Chase Petty is there now. This isn't quite like the Rockies, but with a significant hitter's park and, until proven otherwise, poor defense, there is a tax on Reds pitching prospects.

As for Floyd specifically, I believe the fastball is very good, but it's mostly theoretical as to how the rest of the arsenal will play and how he'll sequence and command his pitches, etc...

ChzBeef: Does the complex league schedule moving earlier affect how you're willing to roster the players more likely to start the season there? In the past you smartly mention that if you aren't willing to hold a guy until mid June, not worth adding. Seems like the bar will be a lot lower now. Curious if that changes things a bit?

Last year, the two complex leagues began on June 5 and finished on Aug. 22. This year, they will begin on May 4 and will wrap up on July 25, which means the regular season will be complete just days after the 2024 MLB draft finishes. I'm usually not aggressively churning my prospect spots in early-May, but I start to get the churn going in mid-to-late May, so this definitely changes that calculus.

AaronWade_2: Can you speak to your rank/outlook on Ryan Birchard (MIL)? Don't know much about him other than the crazy K% in college. Betting on Brewers JUCO dev history?

It's a pretty impressive track record of getting talent in the draft, with Aaron Ashby, Jacob Misiorowski and Carlos F. Rodriguez all coming from the JUCO ranks. However, Birchard was sitting mid-90s with the fastball with two quality breaking balls during fall instructs (per Josh Norris of Baseball America), so he's got tools and he's in the perfect place to maximize his tools.

Matt L: Do you think we see Coby Mayo (BAL) as an early-season call-up around the same time or shortly after Jackson Holliday (BAL) with his strong ST performance? Or do you think he will have to wait for some of the "logjam" at CI/DH to clear up a bit?

From April 12 on, a Mayo promotion or non-promotion would not surprise me, whereas I'd be surprised if Holliday wasn't up sometime in April, assuming he's mashing at Triple-A. Holliday supplanting Ramon Urias in the lineup seems like an obvious 1-for-1, but with Mayo, he needs a poor performance or significant injury to any of the Orioles' infielders or DH types. 

Doc's Dynasty Stash: Essentially wanting to know why Max Clark (DET) isn't higher...

I did move him up a little on this update, just because it's easy to envision him shooting up the ranks if he's getting to some notable power this season. The problem with Clark, is he might only be a 10-15 homer guy playing half his games in that park, so he needs to take a step forward as a power hitter for me to believe in 20-homer upside.

ProcessOverResults: Does Colt Emerson (SEA) have a legit shot at being a top-five prospect next offseason?

I'd change the wording from "legit shot" to "outside shot." It's probably more likely Max Clark (DET) finishes in the top five than Emerson, but it's more likely Emerson finishes in the top 20 than Clark, since Clark could be a five-category guy and Emerson is probably not going to run much, especially as he continues to fill out. If Emerson is generating plus run times this year, that would change everything.

Cream City Prospects: Is it more likely Samuel Basallo (BAL) continues to develop as a C or his bat is fast tracked by a move to 1B? Would either of those potential outcomes impact your ranking of him?

He'd be higher if they just announced he was the 1B of the future, but they won't do that. I know I don't speak for everyone, but I'd much rather have an everyday first base prospect whose bat I loved than a catching prospect whose bat I loved, as you can plug a 1B in at more spots in your lineup than you can a catcher and there's less of a physical toll at that position.

I think Baltimore's plan is to have whoever isn't catching out of Adley Rutschman and Basallo to often slot in at DH, and as they showed in the Corbin Burnes trade, they don't need to trade any of their top tier prospects to get top tier big leaguers, so don't expect Basallo to get traded.

Tom Braun: I am in the 20th year of my home dynasty league. On the pitching side of things, can you tell me 1) rest of season and the 2) next five years, how do you rank Tink Hence (STL), Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) and Noble Meyer (MIA)?

ROS: Smith-Shawver, massive gap, Misiorowski, Hence, massive gap, Meyer.

Next five years: Smith-Shawver, small gap, Misiorowski/Meyer, gap, Hence.

Cam Gustafson: Should more guys graduate this year then normal or does it just feel that way?

Probably fewer graduations this year than last year, which was crazy, but more graduations than we were typically seeing 3-5 years ago. Teams have all cracked the code that pre-arbitration players are very inexpensive and often just as productive, so you'll keep seeing younger rosters until the league changes the way they do player salaries.

Andrew Mason: Are you more likely to rise players faster depending on the org they are in such as O's or Mariners position players? Would you now be more likely to give Mets pitching prospects a bump now that David Stearns is in the front office as another example?

The Mariners have done a good job drafting and signing position players, but I don't think they've shown they're significantly better at developing position players than other orgs, like they have with pitchers.

At this point, being an Orioles position player is more of a negative than a positive. For instance, if Coby Mayo was in another org with a less crowded depth chart and a more friendly home park for righty power, he'd be my No. 5 prospect. Samuel Basallo would be a top-25 prospect if Adley Rutschman wasn't there. Connor Norby and Dylan Beavers would rank higher if they had a clear path to playing time. Joey Ortiz jumped about 100 spots in the rankings after getting traded to Milwaukee.

I definitely trust David Stearns to get the most out of guys like Christian Scott and Blade Tidwell, but also it's a great home park. So generally depth charts and home parks are more likely to affect the rankings than specific orgs having a good developmental track record.

Peter Turner: Feels like Colt Keith (DET) isn't getting as much preseason buzz as typical for a prospect winning a job out of camp (e.g. compared to Jackson Merrill (SD), Victor Scott (STL)). What kind of fantasy asset do you see Keith as? Comps for this year and long term?

The difference between Keith and Merrill/Scott is there was no drama. Keith didn't dominate in the spring and there was no anticipation for whether or not he'd make the team after he signed the extension. Merrill and Scott had great springs and were major underdogs to make their teams entering the spring. 

As for Keith, he's just a really good hitter who has always been graded poorly for his defense by scouts. I feel decent about projecting Justin Turner-level fantasy production long term from Keith (.275 AVG, 20-27 HR with that park), but he won't run, and there's a chance he eventually has to move to designated hitter.

Mike Genre: After graduations this year, is Walker Jenkins (MIN) a clear top three prospect based on what we know right now?

If Jenkins has a healthy season, I'd be very surprised if he didn't finish the year as a top three prospect, and he's my pick to be the No. 1 overall prospect in a year.

Xerson1: What makes Xavier Isaac (TB) a top 15 prospect?

He's close to a flawless first base prospect and will play the entire year as a 20-year-old. Do not ding him for only hitting 19 home runs in 102 games last year — he's got enough juice to have multiple 40-homer seasons. He should hit for a high average with a high OBP, and I expect him to keep getting better against left-handed pitching with more reps.

Mike Roberts: Best LHP in 3-5 years, essentially removing proximity: Ricky Tiedemann (TOR), Kyle Harrison (SF), Henry Lalane (NYY), Robby Snelling (SD), Noah Schultz (CHW)?

You'll never get me to remove proximity with pitching prospects — it's essentially the best trait a pitching prospect can have as long as they have decent stuff and throw enough strikes. For instance, Kyle Harrison could have multiple 200-K seasons under his belt before Lalane or Schultz get to the big leagues, and it's possible Lalane and/or Schultz deal with enough injuries and delivery issues (they're both 6-7 or taller) that they never make it as big-league starters. But I assume you're just asking who has the highest pure ceilings, and in that case, I'd say Lalane, Schultz and Tiedemann would be the top three, but they're also the three riskiest. 

GremmmyJ: Am I the only one who thinks the hype on Wyatt Langford (TEX) …isn't high enough? His combo of discipline, power profile, and max EV look like Pete Alonso. With less chase. With 60 speed. Gotta see him handle MLB pitching, but I feel a 35 HR season is imminent. 1st rounder next year.

I don't think I've under-hyped Langford, but this is definitely not the prospect you want to be betting against, and I have seen others publicly fade him, even before he was going at peak value in drafts. I'm not saying everyone should have taken him in the third or fourth round this year — the highest I drafted him was the seventh round — but he's the real deal, and I agree with pretty much everything you said.

Neil Comer: Does Dylan Crews (WAS) bad spring trouble you at all?

Not as much as his run at Double-A last year did. For a player with Crews' amateur track record and alleged skill set, dominating the caliber of pitching he saw at Double-A last year should have been pretty doable. I wasn't going to move him out of the top 20 on this update regardless of how bad his spring was, but I also wasn't going to put him in the top 10 regardless of how good his spring was. He's a candidate to fall outside the top 20 on the next update if he isn't one of the better hitters at Double-A in the first two months, but he's earned another couple months in the top 20 based on what he did as an amateur.

Leo Kelser: He got some favorable notices in camp, but are you viewing Trey Lipscomb (WAS) as mainly a utility infielder given the ranking, or is there potentially more there? Do you think he takes the 2B job this season?

I could have ranked Lipscomb more in the 200-300 range, but he went from off the list to on the list just based on his spring training, so I felt like that was enough of a nod. All he has to do is be a better option than Luis Garcia or Nick Senzel, so he could be an everyday player before season's end.

John Toperzer: Thoughts on Wikelman Gonzalez (BOS) down triangle?

I love the stuff, but I had enough people tell me this offseason they think he's a reliever that I downgraded him. Gonzalez really needs to improve his command/control, but he could end up closing games even if he doesn't start. 

Phin: Is Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) a SP or RP?

It's basically 55/45 (starter/reliever) for me with Misiorowski right now.

Scott Courlander: Felnin Celesten (SEA) was touted as best in his IFA class by many. Do we think any less of his talent now, or are we just waiting for data? How does his profile compare to some of the top IFA from this year?

The one question with Celesen was the hit tool, so we still don't have any answers there. Sometimes these guys just don't hit enough in the lower levels to maintain their stock, and I'm not going to assume he'll hit until we get some data. Tools wise, he's very similar to his org. mate Dawel Joseph, who signed last year and is a year younger. 

Scott Courlander: Does Nick Nastrini (CHW) have the command to stick in an MLB rotation? Same question for Joe Boyle (OAK) only more so…

I'd project Nastrini to throw just enough strikes to work as a starter for at least a couple years for a team as bad as the White Sox. He wouldn't have been able to crack the Dodgers' rotation, which is why he was expendable. I'd expect Nastrini's WHIP to always be a negative (in the 1.32-1.35 range), but he could average more than a strikeout per inning.

I'm still not a believer in Boyle demonstrating starter-level command over a full season, but at a certain point in the rankings, the fact he is currently in a big-league rotation and has really loud stuff will lead to him slotting in, even if I don't buy the command. The A's won't pull the plug on him as a starter anytime soon, but he could be an excellent closer if they ever decided to go that route.

Andrew Mason: Curious about the rationale of the drop in Welbyn Francisca (CLE) rank from last October to now? Still excited by him but his youth and proximity driving him down?

I think I just put him too high on that October update — and maybe I overcorrected on this update as I was pushing other guys up. Francisca is definitely a guy to keep stashing in leagues where 15-plus hitters from the DSL are already rostered.

Treehouse Baseball: Likely rebuilding this year to compete in 2025. Which names would you be looking to stash now that will be contributors Opening Day next year?

Brandon Woodruff, Sandy Alcantara, Jasson Dominguez, Robbie Ray, Matt McLain, Luis Garcia, Tyler Mahle, Felix Bautista are the types of guys I'd be going after.

Travis Kovalchuk: I have a team I'm trying to rebuild with young bats. I have Corbin Burnes. Who are some players you might target that would be reasonable?

With Burnes healthy and clearly a top-five fantasy starter, you should be asking for a very strong return from a contending team, and you shouldn't be in a rush. The contending teams need Burnes from you this year more than you need to move Burnes this year, so drive a hard bargain. I'd try to get one of Gunnar Henderson, Wyatt Langford, Elly De La Cruz, Vladimir Guerrero, Michael Harris, Jackson Holliday, Jackson Chourio as the headliner. If that type of deal isn't available now, I'd be patient. Definitely don't trade him for a package of three or four hitters without getting one elite hitter.

Prospect Sherpa: Many in the industry have Fernando Cruz (CHC) in the 100-200 range, you clearly don't see it that way. What are you not liking about him?

He's more of a showcase guy (loud tools) than a steady in-game guy, particularly with the hit tool. I could end up being wrong about him, and I'll remedy his ranking if he shows a strong hit tool in the DSL, but sometimes these guys get into real games and they can't hit at all. 

Conor Anderson: When it comes to prospects with big springs, what factors make you believe (Wyatt Langford (TEX)) vs not (2023 Jordan Walker)? Where does James Wood (WAS) rank in that context, who improved plate discipline (19.3% BB%, 22.8% K% in 57 PA) and fared well against LHP (2 HR in 9 AB).

I think you still have to be grounded in your pre-spring priors. If I thought Walker was the best prospect (or at least on par with Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson), I'd have already been drafting him before his big spring, like I was with Langford this year. The only thing I cared about with Langford in the spring was him making the team, and he would have had to been mediocre to not make the team given what he did last year. I was confident in the skills ahead of time. I was very skeptical of Wood's hit tool, relative to most prospect analysts, ahead of spring training, so I bumped him from 21 to 14 on this update just based on the spring stats you cited. 

80grade: Since Leodalis De Vries (SD) signed with the Padres do you expect him to move like Ethan Salas if he performs? 

Potentially, although with the Arizona Complex League schedule moving up, De Vries can play through the end of the ACL season and then head to Single-A, whereas Salas never played in complex ball.

Tom Braun: I currently have Chase DeLauter (CLE) because I love the short, compact, Chase Utley swing, however I am a Sox fan. You have Roman Anthony (BOS) right there with him. Can you compare and contrast the two please?

DeLauter will reach the majors at least a couple months ahead of Anthony, but Anthony is 2.5 years younger, so that's fine. In terms of long-term ceiling, I think they're pretty similar, but DeLauter is a safer bet to be a big positive in AVG/OBP. Anthony could and I think should get to the same level, but he's a pretty passive hitter right now who could strike out more than we'd like against the best pitchers.

Jason Volat: With the information you have at this point, do you envision Walker Jenkins (MIN), Xavier Isaac (TB) or a TBD Player being at the top of this last prior to the 2025 season? 

Jenkins is the easy pick to be atop the list. I think Isaac will probably peak in the 2-5 range due to the lack of speed, and there will certainly be a TBD Player who pushes up into the mix.

Steve: I'm a big Owen Caissie (CHC) guy. Rank these in a league with OBP and SLG. Cassie, Jose Perdomo (ATL), Parker Meadows (DET), Jett Williams (NYM), Dylan Beavers (BAL), Austin Wells (NYY)

Williams, Meadows, Caissie, Beavers, Wells, Perdomo — but if I were a big Caissie guy, I'd probably prefer him to Meadows in that format.

Ryan Ammons: What are your thoughts on Christian Scott and Adael Amador?

You can check out the outlooks I wrote on both guys on their player pages. I'd expect Amador up in late-August or September and then to break camp with the big club in 2025. Scott keeps trending up and I think he could be quite good as a rookie this year with a potential arrival late in the first half.

DA CUZ BO!: Who do you think Christian Scott (NYM) could become is he like a George Kirby/Shane Bieber type? 

Yup, you nailed it, at least the ceiling. He's going to provide fantasy value this season, and I'm really excited for his future.

O's Flows: Last update Josue De Paula had the dreaded double down arrows, and I think you mentioned that was because you had heard reports of bad defense/future DH. Now he's got the double up arrows. Are you hearing improved defensive reports, or is his rise due to something else?

Yeah, I overreacted to the negative defensive reports, so I'm sorry about that. I still haven't talked to anyone who thinks he'll be good in the outfield, but I've talked to enough people who think he'll be passable out there that I'm less concerned.

ColinAtkinson: Why did Kyle Hurt kick your dog, and is 146 too harsh of a punishment?

He didn't kick my dog, thankfully, and I'm sure Kyle would actually like my dog, or at least I'm sure my dog would like Kyle. Just based on how he was used in the spring, it seems like Hurt might not get as fair of a shot as I'd like as a starter. He could still start eventually or even close for the Dodgers if something happens to Evan Phillips, but for now he's just a really good reliever with a chance to see his value tick up.

Spaceforce Helmet Fart: Curious what changed your mind on Keaton Winn (SF) and River Ryan (LAD).

I'd already come around on Winn for the February Rookie Pitcher Rankings article because I realized he was likely to be a big-league starter for all of this season. Maybe I should have realized that before then — I was skeptical of his specific pitch mix. 

I wouldn't say I've changed my mind on Ryan, but I thought I was doing a big disservice to our subscribers to have him at the bottom of the rankings when there will be other fantasy managers who value him as a top-100 prospect. I don't think my rank of Ryan at 166 will lead to any of the people who follow my work acquiring him, but the hope is that you can extract a real prospect if you trade him. Even if he ends up in the bullpen, which I think is likely, he could be a top-10 closer if he ever gets into that role.

Craig Schumann: Guessing Yariel Rodriguez's spring didn't move the needle?

I don't rank international free agents who sign when they're 25 or older. If I did, I'd rank him as a likely reliever.

JJ: Where would you slot Roki Sasaki on these rankings?

If we knew for sure Sasaki was coming over this upcoming offseason, he'd be a top-10 overall prospect in the 5-9 range. We know he wants to come over ASAP, but it's still not quite clear if he can force his NPB team to post him next offseason.