This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
14 games are slated for Wednesday's main contest, with Washington-Miami getting a start earlier than the usual 7:05 pm ET first pitch. The White Sox and Tigers will play a day-night doubleheader, so confirming starting pitchers and seeing how the bullpens get used in the matinee can offer up some different ideas for your lineup.
Pitching Breakdown
Chris Sale ($11,200) and Walker Buehler ($10,100) headline as huge favorites. Sale and the Red Sox check in at -270 against Toronto, a team that carries only a .303 wOBA, 89 wRC+ and 24.1 percent strikeout rate. Sale's been hittable of late, allowing 19 hits and 10 runs over his last three starts spanning 17.0 innings, but Sale has also struck out 28 in that span and has at least 10 K's in five of six. That gives him elite upside and a high floor too.
Buehler's matchup isn't a plus or minus as he's facing a D-backs side that fans just 21.9 percent against righties but also has only a .176 ISO and 89 wRC+. The Dodgers are -260 favorites, giving him great win potential, and if we toss out his disastrous last outing in Coors Field, Buehler's gone for at least 40 FDP in four straight starts and eight of nine. The discount that he comes with makes him my preferred choice over Sale.
Cleveland's Mike Clevinger ($9,000) simply can't be trusted until he shows some semblance of success, having allowed 12 runs in 6.1 frames since returning from injury. John Means ($8,600) follows, and is a very interesting case. Generally speaking, we want no part of an Oriole starter, but Means has been worth 34 or more FDP in four of five, and has allowed three or more runs just three times all season. Mix in the Rays' 26.6 percent strikeout and meager .143 ISO against lefties, and there's some sneaky upside that could be overlooked by casual managers.
It's an odd pitching slate overall, with two fairly priced top options, and then nothing sexy following. I'd feel fairly confident fading all sub-7k options, which leaves very few mid-tier bargains for GPP purposes. Mike Leake ($8,400) has allowed 19 hits and 11 runs in his last 11.1 innings, so he's a pass for me against a light-hitting Cardinals lineup. His adversary, Adam Wainwright ($7,700), has sprinkled in four games of 36 or more FDP in his last eight starts, but the other four yielded 56 points combined. LAA's Griffin Canning ($8,000) has been worth at least 19 FDP in every outing to date, going for 27 or more eight times in 12. That's some nice stability, but it's hard to have faith in a pitcher at Globe Life Park facing an offense that ranks fifth against righties with a .339 wOBA. I don't trust Sonny Gray ($7,600), but he's been surprisingly decent all year and the Brewers have only a .327 wOBA against righties while fanning 24.4 percent of the time. That's likely enough to scare me away from Milwaukee bats more than it will convince me to deploy Gray in GPPs.
Shaun Anderson ($6,700) may merit some consideration for those really looking to save/gamble. He's allowed three or fewer runs in six straight starts, and he faces a Padres' side that fans 26.1 percent of the time. It may not take much to reach 3x value. Ross Detwiler ($6,000) is also in a favorable spot against a light-hitting Tigers side
Key Chalk/Value
We've got a robust slate offensively, with at least five games showing run totals of 10 or more. As always, it starts with Coors Field where Wade Miley ($6,000) and Peter Lambert ($5,500) are set to do battle. Lambert has allowed 16 runs in his last 12.2 innings, while the Rockies as a team have a .398 wOBA and .231 ISO against lefties at home. I won't name names, but wherever you can afford a piece of either side, it's a must buy.
Atlanta-Philadelphia looks ripe for a game stack with a over/under of 11 and coming off Tuesday's pitcher's duel. Bryse Wilson ($5,700) has struggled to adjust to big-league hitters, allowing eight runs over 8.2 innings and surrendering a .480 wOBA and 1.182 OPS to lefties. Queue up Bryce Harper ($4,200), Jay Bruce ($3,600), and Cesar Hernandez ($3,200) as a result. The Braves' side against Nick Pivetta ($6,500, 14 runs in his last 17.2 innings) isn't as obviously successful against righties. Pivetta has been vulnerable to same-handed bats, so maybe passing on Freddie Freeman ($4,400) in favor of Ronald Acuna ($4,300) is the right move at the top of the food chain. Austin Riley ($3,400) and/or Ozzie Albies ($3,300) seem to offer discounted upside at the bottom of the lineup.
Milwaukee's Jhoulys Chacin ($6,100) has allowed multiple runs in five of his last six starts, never lasting more than five frames, and he carries a 5.76 road xFIP into Wednesday. I don't trust the Reds' bats enough to stack them, but a few shares throughout their lineup is prudent, and cheap. Eugenio Suarez ($3,500) has gone long four times in his last three games and fits against Chacin's .401 wOBA and .947 OPS allowed to righties on the road. Jesse Winker ($3,000, .360 wOBA, .256 ISO) out of the clean up spot isn't a terrible option either.
The battle for New York, and the Rangers-Angels game, are the other two with double-digit run totals. Some potential value plays here include Dominic Smith ($2,800), who has a .418 wOBA and .277 ISO against Domingo German, who allows 2.09 HR/9 on the road, and maybe Justin Upton ($3,800), who's advanced numbers (.471 wOBA, 205 wRC+ and .294 ISO) far exceed his base stats.
Stacks
Pirates vs. Yu Darvish (Cubs)
Josh Bell (1B - $4,700), Bryan Reynolds (OF - $3,400), Corey Dickerson (OF - $3,300)
The Pirates have erupted for 23 runs in the first two games of this series, and they face a pitcher in Darvish that has allowed nine runs in his last 11 innings and is giving up a .354 wOBA to lefties as opposed to a .292 wOBA to righties. That split is why I prefer Dickerson to Kevin Newman (SS - $3,200) as Dickerson has the higher ceiling thanks to a .254 ISO. Bell has a .428 wOBA and .355 ISO against righties, while Reynolds remains one of my favorite/under-valued options nightly, carrying a .402 wOBA and 151 wRC+ against righties into Wednesday.
Red Sox vs. Jacob Waguespack (Blue Jays)
Rafael Devers (3B - $4,100), Mookie Betts (OF - $4,100), Xander Bogaerts (SS - $4,200)
Waguespack had a 5.30 ERA and 4.90 xFIP at Triple-A, allowing 1.89 HR/9. That doesn't look like someone who will find success in his first career big-league start. This stack is expensive, which may limit you on the mound and prohibit some Coors Field shares, but all three options here are incredibly stable, with Bogaerts' .386 wOBA, 139 wRC+ and .211 ISO the worst of the trio. Marco Hernandez ($2,400) or Eduardo Nunez ($2,100) can be considered as a third option instead if you need to save and hope for 10 FDP.
Athletics vs. Kyle Gibson (Twins)
Matt Chapman (3B - $3,800), Mark Canha (1B - $2,800), Franklin Barreto (SS - $2,000)
Here's a potential value stack that can allow some higher-priced options elsewhere. Gibson has shown some regression, allowing 15 runs over his last four starts, one of which was a shutout. Chapman seems safe and comes with a .375 wOBA and .253 ISO. We have to really trust the advanced stats on Canha, who is hitting just .236 but has a .400 wOBA, 156 wRC+ and .333 ISO. Barreto is just a cheap fill-in who seems assured of playing time, and is eligible at a position we can often punt. A former top prospect, he had 12 homers and a .388 wOBA in 318 plate appearances in Triple-A.
