This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
This is the second-to-last regular season Tuesday slate, and it's fair to say that next week's will not be nearly as friendly as this one as far as pitching is concerned.
Several top-end arms are in play, which should help to spread around ownership rates in tournaments a bit. Moreover, the lack of a home series for Colorado to begin the week, along with one of the aces (Blake Snell) pitching in a typically high-run environment (Texas) chips away at the inflated run totals somewhat.
There are still plenty of matchups to seek out with bats, however, but there is mid-tier value at nearly every position, making it particularly easy to build cash-game lineups Tuesday.
I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
Remember, a strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
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Pitcher
Preferred Cash Play: Aaron Nola, PHI vs. NYM ($10,700)
Also Consider: Clayton Kershaw, LAD vs. COL ($11,500), Corey Kluber, CLE vs. CHW ($12,000), Jameson Taillon, PIT vs. KC ($9,400)
Preferred Tournament Play: Stephen Strasburg, WAS at MIA ($11,000)
Also Consider: Blake Snell, TAM at TEX ($11,700)
Win probabilities favor Kluber (-260) and Kershaw (-225), but Nola's reduced price, Cy Young worthy performance this season, and status as another heavy home favorite (-185) against the Mets is enough to move him up to the top of the list for cash-game considerations. He may end up as the highest-owned pitcher in tournaments Tuesday, which absolutely makes sense, but the question becomes whether there are enough high-end arms on the slight around him to get significantly lower ownership rates on some of the alternatives. Using Nola in a tournament will require a few unconventional wrinkles with the bats in order to have differentiation.
Kershaw is my pivot from Nola in cash games, or the alternative if I were building multiple cash lineups and wanted to have split (50-50) exposure. Remember when people were wondering if he was done? Kershaw has a 64:6 K:BB over his last 67.2 innings, with a 2.26 ERA and 0.93 WHIP during that span. The Rockies will likely be without one of their top offensive weapons Tuesday, as Trevor Story made an early exit from Monday's game with an elbow injury.
Kluber's matchup against the White Sox is an easy one as far as his chances of mowing down the opposing hitters go, but the concern is that Carlos Rodon has pitched well since returning from the DL, with a 3.10 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 17 starts, but his more recent starts include a 20:19 K:BB over his last five starts (30 innings).
Taillion has been an ace for the Pirates following a disappointing start to 2018. Over his last 12 starts, he's posted a 2.55 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 69:14 K:BB over 77.2 innings. While he doesn't miss bats at an elite clip (8.0 K/9 during that span), he continues to limit the damage by maintaining low walk (1.6) and home-run rates (0.8). Oddly enough, he draws a home Interleague matchup against the Royals, who have the fifth-highest wRC+ in MLB over the last 30 days (114), which may be enough to steer away in cash, and instead lean on him as a tournament option.
The Strasburg Experience (™) has been more favorable in recent weeks, as he's gone at least 5.2 innings in each of his last four starts after a trio of duds in his previous three turns. With the Marlins trotting out few MLB-caliber players down the stretch, they've carried the fifth-worst wRC+ (85) in MLB over the last 30 days. Strasburg edges out Blake Snell as my preferred option for tournament use if only because the run environment Snell has to deal with in Arlington has been more hitter-friendly than usual throughout this season (o/u 9.5 -- highest on the board Tuesday).
Catcher/First Base
Matt Carpenter, STL at ATL ($3,700) -- Anibal Sanchez has been one of the most surprising veteran bounceback performers on the mound in 2018, and while he hasn't shown many signs of falling apart in recent weeks, he's not overpowering opposing hitters, and therefore, he's worth targeting when the prices and matchups break correctly. After showing a very hitter-friendly power lean for lefty bats in Year 1, Atlanta's SunTrust Park has played pitcher-friendly in 2018, but Carpenter's appeal is always a combination of his plate discipline, lineup position, and pop anyway, so he can do plenty of damage even if he's unable to provide a long ball Tuesday night.
Ji-Man Choi remains an interesting option at $3,500 with a road trip to Arlington and a matchup against Yovani Gallardo, and Jays rookie Rowdy Tellez ($2,700) faces Dylan Bundy in a hitter-friendly environment at Camden Yards (tournaments only) if he's entrusted with a start.
Second Base
Ozzie Albies, ATL vs. STL ($3,600) -- The switch-hitting Albies faces lefty Austin Gomber, and while he's only homered twice in the second half (52 games), the splits he's posted against southpaws this season (.343/.362/.551) make him a viable play in this matchup since the price remains down in the mid $3K range. A lower lineup placement in recent weeks has shifted, as Albies has been in the No. 2 spot for the Braves in each of his last five games entering play Tuesday. If that arrangement holds up for this matchup, he's playable in tournaments and cash games at this price.
Near the salary floor, Logan Forsythe ($2,200), Josh Harrison ($2,100) and Ketel Marte ($2,300) all offer value for tournaments in their respective matchups against left-handed starters, with Forsythe's higher lineup placement and more steady role for the Twins making him a cheap consideration as well against Daniel Norris.
Third Base
Mike Moustakas, MIL vs. CIN ($3,400) -- There are a few mid-tier third basemen worth considering on this slate, but Moustakas checks in ahead of Johan Camargo ($3,500) and Josh Donaldson ($3,300), assuming he's manning the hot corner for the Brewers against Michael Lorenzen and the Reds. With a .263/.322/.518 line against right-handed pitching since the start of 2017, Moustakas is now reaping the benefits of a more hitter-friendly home park in Milwaukee, winning the park factors lottery at the trade deadline when the Royals shipped him to the Brewers.
Camargo against Austin Gomber is very appealing (and likely more highly owned than Moustakas in tournaments), while Donaldson against Carlos Rodon and eventually, the White Sox bullpen, provides a solid matchup as well despite Rodon's overall success since returning from the DL. At a similar price point, Eugenio Suarez ($3,600) is interesting, with a righty-righty matchup against Chase Anderson, whose occasional bouts of gopheritis make him prone to an early exit on a night where Josh Hader seems unlikely to pitch more than one inning after he was used for a frame Monday.
Shortstop
Trea Turner, WAS at MIA ($3,800) -- Turner's splits against same-handed pitching underwhelm on the surface (.275/.335/.435 since the start of 2017), but of course, a good chunk of his value comes from his ability to steal bases. Marlins rookie Sandy Alcantara is starting Tuesday, so it's a slightly easier than average matchup for Turner than the typical righty-righty setup since Alcantara has struggled with his control (18.5% BB%) against righties to begin his big-league career while offering the third-worst wOBA allowed against right-handed hitters (.365) on the slate.
If Turner doesn't fit into your budget, Jorge Polanco ($3,100) is a nice slightly discounted alternative against Daniel Norris and the Tigers, and if you're not using Moustakas but still seek exposure to the Brewers' offense against the Reds, Orlando Arcia ($2,100) offers a cheap path to that if he gets the start Tuesday night.
Outfield
A.J. Pollock, ARI vs. CHC ($3,200) -- Pollock faces another lefty starter Tuesday, this time with the Cubs' Mike Montgomery taking the ball at Chase Field. Although his overall production in that split is down in 2018, Pollock has hit eight of his 17 homers this season against left-handed pitching, and Montgomery's low K% overall makes him a nice cash-game target. The D-backs' implied total is slightly lower than expected (3.5 runs), which could keep Pollock's ownership rate from getting completely out of hand in what is actually a very good matchup.
Tommy Pham, TAM at TEX ($3,300) -- Pham has been recommended frequently in this space, and I have no reason to steer away from him with a road matchup (park boost) in Arlington against Rangers righty Yovani Gallardo. Since being acquired by Tampa Bay, Pham has posted numbers (.306/.404/.510) in line with his 2017 breakout with the Cardinals (.306/.411/.520) despite a few minor injuries. His free-swinging approach makes him better suited for GPP-use than in cash games, but with the Rays-Rangers matchup having the highest over/under total on the board, cash lineups might be able to get away with using him in his particular spot.
Right-handed San Diego OF, SD vs. SF (Hunter Renfroe ($3,400) and Franmil Reyes ($3,300) are on the radar again as big power bats priced near the middle of the pack with a home matchup against Giants lefty Derek Holland. Holland, like Anibal Sanchez, has had a surprising renaissance in 2018, but his extremely poor splits against right-handed hitters over the last three years include a 1.65 HR/9 and a .362 wOBA allowed, both of which rank among the worst on the board among Tuesday's starters. s
