This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A robust 14-game slate awaits players Tuesday evening, with only San Francisco at Cincinnati and their 6:40 p.m. EDT first pitch being omitted. The slate brings four arms with five-digit salaries and obvious a plethora of choices below that. With that in mind, I'll try to break down the arms in terms of pricing tiers, offering a preferred choice up and down the rung.
Pitching
Zack Wheeler, PHI vs. MIA ($10,400): It's all about the strikeout upside for Wheeler, as he faces a Marlins lineup that fans 26.3 percent of the time against righties, a full four percentage points more than any of the other top arm's opponents. Miami's .287 wOBA and .128 ISO also rank near the bottom of the league. Wheeler has fanned at least six in six straight, and while he's proven to be more feast or famine than others in this tier, this is a clear plus spot.
Patrick Corbin, WAS at CHC ($8,500): Corbin appears to be rounding into form, turning in three straight quality starts. He fanned nine against the Phillies in his last outing before a brief pause to welcome a child into the world. That short absence may mean a smaller workload here, but also less popularity across lineups. The Cubs are fanning at a 27.3 percent clip against lefties, so I think we can find a path to 4x value or better even if Corbin only goes five or six frames, and their .177 ISO should lend to some stability.
Andrew Heaney, LAA vs. CLE ($7,600): Heaney's game logs suggest he's a classic GPP, boom or bust option Tuesday, having topped 50 FDP three times while failing to reach 20 FDP three times. But I like him for just the opposite: a low strikeout, minimal damage guy against Cleveland, a team that fans only 20.8 percent of the time against southpaws and which has a minimal .280 wOBA, 76 wRC+ and .155 ISO, suggesting low risk and a path to 4x value.
John Gant, STL at PIT ($6,700): There are a handful of arms on bad teams I'm willing to gamble on, but Gant seems the most stable of those choices. Pittsburgh has a woeful offense, bringing just a .116 ISO, 84 wRC+ and 26.4 percent hard hit rate. 26.8 FDP is all we need here for value, and Gant has been within three points of that in all but one outing to date.
Luis Patino, TB at BAL ($5,500): We know Patino isn't going to throw more than five innings, and that my be pushing it. But they could easily be four-plus shutout frames against an Orioles lineup that ranks last in the league with a .282 wOBA. He needs a mere 22 FDP to return 4x value, something he's been right at in his last two outings against far better lineups.
Top Targets
Trea Turner, WAS at CHC ($4,200): Turner can impact the game on so many levels, and this feels like a nice bargain. The ball was carrying in Wrigley Field on Monday, leading to Turner's 10th homer and putting him on pace to shatter his personal best. He's leading the Nats with a .368 wOBA, and Cubs' starter Zach Davies is getting hit hard by righties to the tune of a .389 wOBA.
Max Muncy, LAD vs. ARI ($3,700): Muncy is leading the Dodgers with a .431 wOBA and .299 ISO against righties. Merrill Kelly is allowing a .383 wOBA and .887 OPS to lefties on the road, both far higher numbers than at home.
Alex Bregman, HOU vs. OAK ($3,700): I wear this space out targeting Bregman against lefties, but his .403 wOBA, 167 wRC+ and and .194 ISO are in line with his career averages. Mix in that he's homered three times against A's starter Sean Manaea among his six hits, and that Oakland's starter is allowing a .542 wOBA and 1.260 OPS to opposite-handed bats to date, and this sets up as a smash spot.
Value Bats
Pete Alonso, NYM at ATL ($3,500): It's homer chasing, but that's what we're always seeking with Alonso, so why not. He's got a .300 ISO and just a 9.5 percent soft contact rate against lefties. The Mets' lineup is laden with injuries, so they likely aren't stackable, but Atlanta starter Tucker Davidson hasn't shown well in very limited big-league appearances and we want a piece against him.
Austin Riley, ATL vs. NYM ($2,600): There's not a lot sexy about Riley, but he's showing great stability as opposed to boom or bust production. At this number, he needs a walk and a run/RBI to provide a solid return. The walks have come far more frequently this year (13.1 percent), resulting in a personal best .357 wOBA to date. He's going to be a regular in my lineups until he shows signs of slumping. Friday's homer provides welcome upside for a player seemingly sacrificing power for approach.
Ha-Seong Kim, SD vs. COL ($2,500): We normally want to target righties against Rockies starter Austin Gomber, who is allowing a .354 wOBA to them against a .169 mark to lefties. Unfortunately, the Padres have few healthy bats. Enter Kim, who is slowly warming up, resulting in 4x value at this number in four of his last six while at least scratching in all outings. It's a bit of a reach, but fade this offense completely at your peril.
Stacks to Consider
Blue Jays vs. Eduardo Rodriguez: Vladimir Guerrero ($4,000), Teoscar Hernandez ($3,100), Randal Grichuk ($3,000)
Red Sox starter Rodriguez is targetable, allowing a .379 wOBA to righties on the road, something the Blue Jays have a plethora of. Grichuk is a near automatic play when facing an opposite-handed arm, and that gives this stack affordability as he posts a .439 wOBA, 185 wRC+ and .286 ISO in this spot. Guerrero gives this stack an anchor, going .411/166/.125, while Hernandez is starting to surge and carries .399/157/.267 marks.
Rangers vs. Jameson Taillon: Joey Gallo ($3,000), Willie Calhoun ($2,800), Nate Lowe ($2,700)
You'd be hard pressed to find a more feast or famine stack for this price. All three Texas hitters bring big power to the table, are hitting in the top four of this lineup from the left side, and face an arm in Taillon that's allowing a .404 wOBA to lefties. GPPs only for sure, as we can't really count on this trio stringing together consecutive singles, but there's big upside.
