This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A usual, full 15-game slate is on the docket Tuesday, which gives us infinite options to break down.
Pitching Breakdown
Clayton Kershaw ($12,200) headlines, and looks to be worth every penny. He gets a Blue Jays lineup that has a .308 wOBA and 91 wRC+ against lefties, and he's gone for 30-plus FDP in eight consecutive and 15 of his last 16, with a ceiling of 61 FDP. Load up where you can afford.
Shane Bieber ($11,000), Sonny Gray ($10,400) and Stephen Strasburg ($10,000) round out the five-figure options. The latter of this trio is the bigger name, and is arguably in the worst form, having allowed 16 runs in his last three starts, spanning 17.1 frames. He has struck out 17 in that span, and faces a Pirates side that ranks last with a .284 wOBA and 73 wRC+, so the form is less concerning than usual. Gray has been brilliant, going for 40-plus FDP in eight of nine, brings an 18-inning scoreless streak into Tuesday, and faces a Padres side with a 26.4 percent strikeout rate. Bieber's matchup is arguably the worst against a Mets lineup that fans only 22.0 percent of the time, though they have an average 100 wRC+ against righties. Bieber has struck out 44 over his last five starts (38.0 innings), which gives him upside, and the less obvious matchup should make him a low-owned GPP target.
Domingo German ($9,900) leads a trio of arms in the 9k range. His appeal largely comes from wins, and with the Yankees only moderate favorites (-133), he's riskier than usual against an A's side that whiffs only 21.9 percent of the time. Aaron Nola ($9,700) is discounted thanks to a tough matchup against Boston. The game has a total of 11 runs, and the Phillies are underdogs despite their ace being on the mound, which is enough for me to stay away. Michael Pineda ($9,400) is priced too high for me personally, but he's a White Sox side that fans 26.3 percent of the time, and one that he's earned 89 FDP against in two starts. Marco Gonzales ($9,000) is listed as of submission, but pitched Monday.
Win chasing presents two obvious candidates Tuesday in Houston's Aaron Sanchez ($8,500) and Atlanta's Dallas Keuchel ($7,800). The Braves (-300) and Astros (-300) are both huge favorites against the Marlins and Tigers, respectively. Sanchez likely has a higher upside thanks to the Tigers 26.6 percent K rate, while Keuchel has a bit more volatility after he allowed the Marlins to plate eight runs against him in 3.2 innings two starts prior.
Further bargain shopping for arms brings me to Cole Hamels ($7,300), whose allowed 12 runs over his last two starts, lasting just five innings. That poor form has his price down, the Cubs are solid favorites (-200), and the Giants have just a .295 wOBA and 82 wRC+ against lefties. If we're feeling lucky, perhaps Kyle Freeland ($6,200) is worth a shot. He's averaged 19.4 FDP in his last five, which includes a -10 outing against the Dodgers. He faces a Diamondbacks side that is sound against lefties, but one that he worked six frames against in Coors Field last week, striking out six en route to 21 FDP. If he can replicate that, he'll return greater than 3x value and allow you to load up offensively.
Key Chalk/Value
Mike Trout ($4,900) is the chalk of the chalk when facing left-handed pitching. Mix in the ballpark factor in Globe Life Park and the slate's highest total of 11.5, and there's a clear need to have some shares. The Angels don't hit lefties as a team terrifically, giving more reason to build around Trout. Just ensure he's in the lineup with the Angels and Rangers playing a day-night doubleheader.
The perceived lopsided nature of games in Houston and Los Angeles figure to have the Astros and Dodgers bats as popular anchors. The Astros are set to face Spencer Turnbull ($6,000), who's been far more vulnerable to lefties (.346 wOBA against .271 to righties.) As such, it's a great day to target a white-hot Michael Brantley ($4,500) who is riding a 13-game hitting streak, while Yordan Alvarez ($4,300) is also very much in play. The Dodgers get Sean Reid-Foley ($5,800) who is similarly worse against lefties, allowing a .366 wOBA to them as opposed to a .275 wOBA to same-handed bats. It's a great stacking opportunity if you can afford it, as the Dodgers have plenty of lefties to choose from. Cody Bellinger ($4,900) and Max Muncy ($4,000) lead the way, while some cheaper buys include Corey Seager ($3,300) and Joc Pederson ($2,900).
Colorado-Arizona looks like a potential game stack, despite the modest interest in Freeland above. Both teams are top-eight offenses against lefties, and while there isn't a huge price discount on Rockies bats outside of Coors Field, there isn't much reason to stay away from Trevor Story ($4,200) or Nolan Arenado ($4,300). Ketel Marte ($4,200) presents similarly for the D'Backs, while Wilmer Flores ($3,100) has had some success against Freeland in the past if you're a BvP believer.
Baltimore-Kansas City is a spot I wouldn't ignore. Yes, they are bad teams, and Royals' starter Brad Keller ($8,000) has been pretty tough to all sides this year. But the ball jumps in Camden Yards and we should be able to find a bit of value on both sides. Baltimore counters with Dylan Bundy ($6,800) who is allowing a .382 wOBA to righties at home, so there should be some interest in Hunter Dozier ($3,900), Jorge Soler ($3,600) and Whit Merrifield ($3,200). Those three would make for a great GPP stack at a very affordable price. The Baltimore side has some hot bats to consider as well. Rio Ruiz ($2,000) is bottom priced, and has a .548 wOBA and 252 wRC+ in August. Hanser Alberto ($2,900) owns a .395/148 rate this month, while Jonathan Villar ($3,700) has posted a .443 wOBA and 181 wRC+ over his last 81 plate appearances.
Stacks
Phillies vs. Brian Johnson (Red Sox)
Rhys Hoskins (1B - $3,800), J.T. Realmuto (C - $4,100), Jean Segura (SS - $3,600)
The Phillies are throwing their ace, they are still underdogs, and this game has a total of 11 runs. Something doesn't seem right there, especially when we mix in the presence of Johnson on the mound for Boston. He's allowing a .474 wOBA to righties, and these three Philly bats all have wOBAs of .378 or greater, and ISOs of .275 or greater. Realmuto is surging, having homered in four of his last six, while Segura brings some lower upside stability. All three also get you contact to Bryce Harper ($4,300) at a discount.
Nationals vs. Chris Archer (Pirates)
Juan Soto (OF - $4,000), Adam Eaton (OF - $3,800), Asdrubel Cabrera (3B - $2,600)
The Nats are on fire, as save for a 2-1 final last Friday, they've scored 17, 15, 16 and 13 runs in their past four outings. Archer has been better lately and has been better at home than on the road, but the Nats are too hot to ignore. Soto leads the way, owning a team-high .417 wOBA, .292 ISO and 156 wRC+ against righties. He's also hit eight homers in 15 games this month, posting a 1.225 OPS in that stretch. Eaton is similarly hot in August, having just one game of fewer than 9.2 FDP, posting a .469 wOBA, 189 wRC+ and .351 ISO, scoring 20 runs in 14 games. Cabrera offers some salary relief if you can't afford other top National bats. He's posted a .379 wOBA and 131 wRC+ since joining the team.
Cubs vs. Tyler Beede (Giants)
Anthony Rizzo (1B - $4,200), Ian Happ (OF - $3,100), Jason Heyward (OF - $3,200)
Beede has allowed at least four runs in five consecutive outings, lasting just 23.1 innings total in that span. He's allowing a .383 wOBA and .921 OPS to lefties on the road, playing right into Rizzo's team-best .401 wOBA, 148 wRC+ and .240 ISO. The other two choices are a little less conventional, but get some additional opposite-handed bats into the lineup against Beede's struggles. Heyward has a stable .365 wOBA in this spot despite some struggles in August. Happ has taken advantage of his current playing time, posting a .414 wOBA, 156 wRC+ and .385 ISO against righties in August.
