This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
All 30 teams are included in Tuesday's main slate, which gets started at 6:35 pm ET rather than 7:00 or later. East coast games in Boston, New York and Philadelphia could see some pop-up storms.
Pitching Overview
Stephen Strasburg ($10,600) leads the way salary-wise on the mound. He's in great form, having only one game all year under 30 FDP, and while the Braves' .325 wOBA is middle tier and they only fan 22.0 percent of the time against righties, Strasburg has fanned 77 Braves in his last 63.1 innings against them. He does have a 4.55 ERA in that span, and a struggling Nats offense is facing a sound adversary in Max Fried ($8,900). They've excelled against lefties (more below) though, which could have Strasburg getting more run support than many expect.
Matthew Boyd ($10.200) presents some safety as well. He has just one game under 31 FDP and gets a meager Orioles offense that fans 26.4 percent of the time. Another lefty that merits consideration is the Dodgers' Rich Hill ($8,800), who has 17 Ks in his last 12.0 innings and faces a Mets side that whiffs 27.2 percent of the time.
Lucas Giolito ($9,400) is surging, having earned 52 or more FDP in three of his last four, striking out eight or more in those successful outings. While Kansas City strikes out only 21.9 percent of the time against righties, Giolito has fanned 13 Royals across 9.1 innings this season, allowing just three hits. He looks like a sure thing at great savings, which is usually too good to be true.
Some options if you're looking for savings include David Price ($8,400), whose removal due to illness from his last start could scare some away. Cleveland whiffs a moderate 24.3 percent of the time, but ranks 25th with a .293 wOBA against lefties, adding a .134 ISO. Marco Gonzales ($7,300) has been wildly inconsistent and hasn't struck out more than three in any of his last five starts, but he gets a Rangers' offense that fans over 28 percent of the time against lefties and one that he whiffed nine against in seven innings in an earlier home matchup. This might be the bottom of the barrel for pitching selection Tuesday, but if we're really bargain shopping, Toronto's Clayton Richard ($5,900) gets a Rays' side that fans a league-high 30.5 percent of the time against lefties while posting only a 90 wRC+ and .141 ISO.
Key Value/Chalk
We start, as usual, in Colorado where the Rockies face the Diamondbacks with a huge 12.5 run total and righties Merrill Kelly ($6,300) and Antonio Senzatela ($5,600) squaring off. Surprisingly, no bat is priced higher than 5k, with Nolan Arenado ($4,800) leading the way. You'll want as many bats as you can afford on both sides here. Kelly has struggled on the road against righties, and Colorado's lineup is loaded with same-handed bats. Trevor Story ($4,600) is worth paying for, while Brendan Rodgers ($3,100) appears to be adjusting to major-league pitching and offers a cheap in. Senzatela meanwhile is allowing a .406 wOBA to lefties. Eduardo Escobar ($4,600) paces the pricing, but has just a moderate .351 wOBA against righties. There may be better value found in Jarrod Dyson ($3,300, .341 wOBA), especially if he leads off. There's no clear wrong play here, and stacking is preferred where it's affordable.
Boston gets to attack rookie Zach Plesac ($5,500), who impressed during his minor-league stint and offers enough ambiguity that I'd have lighter shares than the matchup may suggest. The game has a 9.5 total, the second highest on the slate, and if we assume Price shuts down Cleveland, the Red Sox are therefore expected to do plenty of damage. Mookie Betts ($4,300) can be a stable pivot away from Coors Field, while Rafael Devers ($4,000) is white hot, posting seven straight games with double-digit points.
Mariner bats figure to be popular against Adrian Sampson ($6,200). Sampson has settled down some however, allowing only two runs over his last 10.2 frames, 5.1 of which came against Seattle. He has a 6.90 xFIP on the road though, allowing a .402 wOBA to righties. Edwin Encarnacion ($3,400) offers power potential paired with a decent price, and while he doesn't providing the RvR matchup, it's worth remembering that Kyle Seager ($2,900) has returned from injury and is a very cheap in to this matchup.
Philadelphia-St. Louis has also has a 9.5 run total, and both sides are worth targeting with Nick Pivetta ($6,500) returning from a minor-league stint to start against Adam Wainwright ($7,000), who has allowed three or more runs in three of his last four starts. Weather, and the possibility that Pivetta rediscovers his 2018 form, keep me from stacking both sides, but the Cardinals' Paul DeJong ($3,600) and Dexter Fowler ($3,000) offer a nice mix of price and positive matchup splits, as do the Phillies' Scott Kingery ($2,700) and Cesar Hernandez ($2,900).
Stacks
Astros vs. Jon Lester (Cubs)
Carlos Correa (SS - $3,900), Jake Marisnick (OF - $2,400), Yuli Gurriel (1B - $2,800)
Injuries, and the name recognition of Lester, may have many fading the Astros here, but the matchup has pushed prices down somewhat and Houston collectively crushes lefties. With Jose Altuve ($3,500) and George Springer ($4,400) sidelined, Marisnick is assured of a start and boasts a .480 wOBA, 211 wRC+ and .290 ISO. Correa is the stable option here, and carries a .436 wOBA, .300 ISO and 181 wRC+. The third option is less obvious, as Josh Reddick's ($2,900) splits are better, but the LvL matchup is a little scary. Enter Gurriel, whose .343 wOBA and 119 wRC+ aren't awful, but he somehow rank eighth amongst Astro bats against lefties. Keep an eye on how the lineup shakes out, as there will certainly be other bargain options. Lester has allowed nine runs in his last 8.1 innings, and 34 hits in his last 21 frames.
Cubs vs. Corbin Martin (Astros)
Anthony Rizzo (1B - $4,400), Willson Contreras (C - $3,400), Addison Russell (2B - $2,500)
I wasn't intending to stack this game in this section, but that's the way things worked out. Martin hasn't been great since debuting and has allowed five runs and 11 hits in his last two starts, lasting just 7.1 innings. He's stuck out only three in that span after a nine-K debut. Rizzo is on fire and a great stand-alone option if you're not stacking, riding a nine-game hitting streak that has seen him homer five times and produce a low of nine FDP. His .448 wOBA and .350 ISO against righties is just gravy. Contreras has a .433 wOBA and .289 ISO in this spot, while Russell has two three-hit games in his last three, homering twice, and is a nice upside play at a position void of them.
Nationals vs. Max Fried (Braves)
Anthony Rendon (3B - $4,300), Juan Soto (OF - $4,000), Brian Dozier (2B - $2,500)
If you're looking for a low-ownership, boom-or-bust GPP option, this could be it. Fried has been good to great and generally better at home, owning just a 2.67 xFIP, so this play is strictly about how good the Nationals have been against LHP. Rendon has a .511 wOBA, 222 wRC+ and .429 ISO against lefties, while Soto sits at .414/158/.291. Dozier is the surprise here, as he enters with a .455 wOBA, 185 wRC+ and .263 ISO, putting him in a similar category to Russell above -- cheap at a punt position with some surprising upside.
